Random Thoughts

I know some of you have been waiting for my post BCS game thoughts.  I have watched the game about 5 times now.  Each time to do the GBU, but I find myself looking at the game and thinking more about how can they repeat and start a legacy more than I do about how they pimp slapped a weak offense to death. 

See, here's the thing.  Regardless of how sweet 2011 was, if they follow it up with another 2010, it is just memory for the next chance.  The 2008 recruiting class lived up to its legacy and hype for the most part.  Now, most of those guys are gone and in their place this year's class has a chance to set a new benchmark.  However, there are a lot of things to look at on the road to repeating as champ. 

LSU ain't going too far south....

While many fans have enjoyed the misery of LSU's defeat, some more bagged over the head than others, the fact lost in the celebration is that for the most part, LSU was and is a young team.  They lose 4 starters on offense, and one of which is Jefferson/Lee so that isn't a far drop given a true freshman would be about equal.  They return 4 experienced linemen, all the backs and WRs, so if they can find any effort in the passing game, they will win and win some more just like they did this year.  They lose 4 starters but out of those, only the 2 linebackers are going to be hard to replace.  Eric Reid had pretty well won one of the spots.  Honey Badger, as picked on as he was, is only a sophomore, so his junior year should show improvement just as Arenas and others have done.  They won't suck by any stretch and what's worse is that they will want to take a chunk out of Bama just as Bama did to them.  They get the bulk of their conference tough games at home with Auburn and Arkansas being the toughest 2 road games.  Bama, USCar, the Misses and Washington are all at home.  So a run for the West is in range for them.

Arkansas isn't far behind the pack either....

Like LSU, they return a lot of key pieces plus they get Davis back from knee surgery.  They lose Childs and Adams, but they are deep at WR.  Arkansas always has a great OL and they won't be hard press to replace the 1 starting senior.  Defensively, they do have some holes to fill with Bequette and Franklin graduating as well as 3 defensive backs.  Their schedule is very generous with Bama, A&M, and LSU at home.  Their road schedule is highlighted by trips to USCar and Auburn.  They will more than likely be right back in the West hunt with their offense leading them again. 

Bama's road to repeat sucks

Bama's rebuilding dynasty schedule is about as rough as broken glass toilet paper.  They get a good Michigan team, at ARK, at Missouri (not exactly tough but a trap game), at UT the next week, at LSU, aTm the next week, and Auburn to end the season.  Any adjustments or time to grow young players will have to be done under fire. 

That's where I really spend a lot of time as I watch the replay.  On defense, they have some issues with the secondary next year....again.  Just like 2010 where it was a breaking in year, 2012 will be another breaking in year.  On offense, there just isn't a lot of experience at WR, lots of potential and hype, but nothing that wins games yet.  Bama will have to rebuild there as Norwood finally displayed his talents, but we don't know if that was a single moment or the start of something big, Bell has some PT but is inconsistent, as is White.  Gone are Maze, Hanks, Gibson, Smelley, Underwood, Richardson, McCullough, and Vlachos and in their places are who knows, Harrison Jones, Lacy, Steen if he can spell football, and Barrett Jones. 

The Internet fan will tell you that all is well and a repeat is likely because so and so was highly recruited.  Or they heard that in 7 on 7 drills they tore it up!  Rule one, if someone says during 7 on 7s, that player has a track record of epic fail.  See Star Jackson, D White, B Sims, BJ Scott, etc. etc. etc.  What I will tell you is that yes, they can win, but it will take a lot to get them there, more so than even 2010 when they had a bullseye there.  To me, it falls on 2 players- AJ McCarron and CJ Mosley.  AJ you can guess pretty easily.  He's got to continue taking up bigger parts of the playbook and being more of the facilitator than the replicator.  Mosley's roll is big because he will have to replace Hightower, and do so coming off rehab.  He also is going to be asked to patrol the middle of the zone and help the young secondary grow up.  They will need CJ because he's at his best in space and he did a wonderful job of shadowing Jordan Jefferson when he was in. 

Next year's team will look something like this at spring practice:
Returning starters in White returning contributor in blue
QB- McCarron then Sims (I don't buy the transfer rumors til after spring camp)
RB- Lacy then Yeldon or Hart or both.
H Back- Jones
TE- Williams
WR- C Jones then White or Cooper
WR- Bell then Woodson or Black
WR- Norwood then Shinn
(Note- I don't consider Carter to be a real depth chart candidate till he clears all hurdles)
T- CyKo then B Jones or Taylor
G- Warmack then Lutua
C- Jones then Lindsay
G- Steen then Love or Arie K
T- Fluker (won't be surprised if they don't experiment with him at guard after another slow footed game) then Love or AK or Shepherd

Lots of color to the group, that is good.  Cyrus will be a big if until he is tested under real fire.  He was placed in some situations but nothing long enough to be able to say he can or can't perform at LT.  Really though, he has to and there isn't any discussion about it.  Fluker can't play LT at all, Jones can but they would have to find a center they can fall in love with, and that guy doesn't appear to be on the spring roster so that's out.  Lacy will get his chance to shine and we will see if he can hold up to a full season of pounding.  Otherwise, the new kids on the block get their shot early.  Running back is probably the easiest position to come out of high school and play so Yeldon and Hart should have a good track to getting snaps. 

On defense, the spring chart looks like this:

DE- Square then Billingsley
DT- Ivory/Williams/Dial/?- There really isn't a front runner as Williams has yet to show he can play over center
DE- Williams then Dial and Stinson
Sam- Hubbard then Atchison
Mike- Nico then DePriest
Will- Mosley then Patrick or Lee
Jack- Dickson then Hubbard
CB- Millner then Belue
CB- Fulton then Dixon
S- Lester then Dix or Lowery
S- Sunseri then Dix or Perry

Not nearly as much color there is there?  The biggest questions needing answered are who are the 3 corners that they will be able to use primarily?  Can Lester play safety in the SEC?  Can they find enough rush to help the young secondary?

Those are things that I keep staring at as I sit and watch the game again today.  I see a big play and thing good job that guy can....wait he's graduating or he's going pro.  Losing Hightower, Kirkpatrick, Barron, Menzie, Upshaw and Chapman will be hard to replace in a spring or summer.  Fulton is the likely front runner going into spring at corner, but it won't surprise me if Dixon and or Belue beat him out.  I won't be shocked if Lee isn't pressing for PT at either Sam or Will.  One scenario I'd like to see happen in drills is using Mosley at Sam, Nico and DePriest in the middle and Dickson/Hubbard at jack.  That is probably their best 4 but I don't know if they can play a lot like that because the depth is a little shallow. 

When Bama goes nickel I can see the back 5 being Millner/Belue/Dixon(Fulton)/Lester/Sunseri(Dix).  The front 6 would be Square/Williams/Dial/Stinson(Dickson)/Nico/CJ.  Lots of experience up front which should mean more blitzes and more reliance on them to make plays and spare all but Lester from having to. 

So How Does Bama Repeat??

Simply put, they have to live on what won in 2011 again.  The defense.  The offense left all but LSU in the dust last year, but that was because Bama didn't let anyone but Ga Southern gash them.  Alabama will have to improve their special teams and with Adam Griffith coming in the summer that should happen.  The defense will have to be a little more aggressive and try to keep opponents flushed and not try to cover them to death.  That was the mistake in 2009 that they repeatedly made in each loss was they tried to stop USCar, LSU and AU by containment.  It made 2 really bad QBs look really good.  Any QB at this level can hit progressions when they have 10 or more seconds to throw.  Only a few can do it in less than 5.  So, my hope is that they will use the experience up front to compensate. 

Conversely, the offense will have to help in part by keeping the ball on longer more sustained drives.  I don't see the offense changing any guys.  New Guy will throw some wrinkles in, but this is still going to be Saban's team and Saban's offense that has ran the same plays since 2007 for the most part.  They will lean on the front line and Williams to drive the field and let AJ use play action to keep teams off balanced.  Smelley wasn't much of a blocker, but as a receiving threat he was a ball player.  That weapon is missing until someone finds his replacement.  Williams can be that weapon but they need him at tackle support for CyKo and Fluker. 

What kind of position changes might happen?

Blake Sims is a prime candidate with Yeldon's early enrollment.  Either he or Fowler will have to move at some point because Drake comes in the summer.  That will likely mean that one or both has to make room on the chart barring injury.  Fowler to H Back is not a bad option if he can condition to it.  Sims is not an offensive weapon at this level, but I like him at DB.  He's more north south than east west, and that puts him more as a corner or FS than a HB due to his build.  Forget the wildcat hopes, that formation is almost dead.

Jones to center seems a given as he was really the number 2 center if Vlachos got hurt.  Fluker to guard could be a reality if a tackle finds religion.  Fluker's NFL future is guard due to his slow footwork and slow hands.  Stinson back to Jack may be an option if Dickson and Hubbard don't wow the staff.  Stinson is a little undersized at end, but he plays with a big motor and hustles.  I could see him at Jack playing hand down primarily.  Wilson Love might get a look at guard if DT is too deep.  The Calloway running back experiment probably ends this year with Drake and Yeldon and Hart all being freshman.  It wouldn't shock me if Vogler didn't get converted to Tackle and is bulked up to 290.  He's not going to be a major contributor at TE since Faciane is a Williams clone and he's not fast or sure handed enough to play H Back.  William Ming might be at TE eventually as he's not cracking the D Line chart any time soon. 

Names to watch this spring....

DJ Pettaway- Staff really likes him and he'll get plenty of chances to work up the chart this spring. 

Phillip Ely- He needs a big spring to stay relevant and to be ready in the even that Sims does leave. 

Marvin Shinn- the 6-3 speedster has a chance to work in to the top 5 WRs this spring. 

DJ Fluker- after a really bad showing at the BCS title game, he really needs to have a big spring and make that next step count. 

Undra Billingsley- he is the odds on favorite to be the Nick Gentry How the Piss does he play and play well award winner

Jeremy Shelley- Good as can be asked for inside 40, shaky from beyond, but a big spring can help give him a running start against Griffith. 

Cade Foster- losing confidence by the second, and his kickoffs have not been spectacular so like Shelley, a big spring may give him enough of a lead to keep his kickoff duties.

John Fulton- This is the it moment for him.  Some have answered that moment and others haven't.  He has to make the most of this situation or else he's never going to be more than a special teams gunner.  He can either be the next Tyler Love and fade off quietly or he can be Josh Chapman and answer the bell. 


Watching Mark Anderson and wondering what if he played for Saban....

I have long felt that Anderson was a Jack without a home at Bama.  Many scoffed at the thought of standing him or Odom up to play jack at times, but sitting there today, I kept thinking who else would have been a good Saban player???

DeMeco Ryans comes to mind.  He'd played middle and Roach beside him in 2005.  Saban would have loved John Mangum and Lee Ozmint.  LeRon McClain probably would be an all pro linebacker now.  Same for Tim Castille.  He would have loved King, Morehead, Johnson, and company. 

Tell me some that you think would have been much more than what they were in the Fran/Shula/Dubose era.