The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly- Quarterbacks

I pushed this back a little due to the Partygate thread wave, but now practice starts and we can all think about actual football. So with that said..

LAST YEAR RECAP

The amusing thing about fans is that while McElroy played really well in 10 out of 14 games, they like to talk about those 4. Last season's QB recap can be summed up in 3 games: Virginia Tech, Auburn, and Florida. They can because those 3 are the 3 games that needed the QB to win the game for them, and he did. For all the complaints, for all the "AJ will start ifs" and all the bullshit that comes from fans across the Internets, not once in 2009 did McElroy endanger the team's chances of winning. Even in his worst games, he didn't quit or go into his shell the way that Jarrett Lee has or Tim Tebow did after he got rocked. The 3 games referenced are great indications of why McElroy doesn't lose often. Remember back to VT, the team was rattled, they were getting beat up by the Tech Defense early, but McElroy didn't quit, he slowly dug his way out of the trenches and then started to control the game and finished with a flurry after missing his first 7 out of 8. Against Auburn, nothing had gone well....NOTHING. However, the team had held on and was in a position to win the game in the end. They needed Greg to be Greg, and he commanded the pocket and the huddle and it was almost a throwback to Barker's days where you almost knew they were going to win just because he had the ball. I think the biggest boost to why the staff is locked in on McElroy is displayed in this game.

In the goal line, the call was to grind out and play for a field goal, but Saban chose to use Greg's abilities and play for the lock down win. Remember, a FG there doesn't ice it, but a TD makes things hard for Auburn to recover in less than a minute. Saban trusted McElroy to win the game, and he did. Against Florida, he owned Florida and played through pain in the end to crush them. Those are the games that make 2009 what it was for the quarterbacks.

THIS OFFSEASON

Who is back?

Greg McElroy. Can he hit all the throws? No, or at least he wasn't last we saw him. Does that matter? No. I really tire of that argument as to why someone should or shouldn't start. Has a Nick Saban team ever won anything throwing the ball around? Not really, he likes control and time consumption, not WAC stat lines. McElroy is the guy in the huddle who gets the guys to where they need to be mentally. You can see that time and time again as the team struggled, he amped them up, when they needed to get poised, he calmed them. When things went bad for him and he wasn't at his best, he didn't dwell or point about it, he accepted it and worked through it. I do think that we will see more of his abilities this fall though because he's now faced 14 rough games....well maybe 11 tough ones. He's now had the entire summer to get the kinks worked out, and if he can get a 2nd WR to play consistent, watch out. Regardless, as long as he controls the huddle, keeps the offense moving in the right direction, and scoring points, he's going to be remembered fondly in time. He had plenty of reasons to quit, but his patience paid off in the end.

AJ McCarron- AJ is a 4 star QB that comes from a HS that is rich in college profile players. He has a good arm, not a cannon, and is accurate when his mechanics are on. He has a tendency to not set and throw and forgets his fundamentals at times. When he's got his stuff together, he's a very capable pocket QB. He likes to sit in the pocket and check down, not real wild about getting out in space and creating or doing a waggle. His throwing motion is good, and he whips the ball around the way you are taught, and the ball comes out fast so he avoids sacks. The ball rarely drops below the pad and it comes out at the point of release not too early or late. His footwork is improving and he sets up better now than he did in HS. The thing that AJ has to learn or earn is how to lead and how to deal with adversity. He has had his visits to the dog house since arriving and needs to continue to prove those days are over. Relax team AJ fans, he didn't shoot fireworks or anything bad, he just let the staff down a bit when they tested him. AJ will play some this year, how much will depend on what kinda lead they build and other situations, but I don't see anything indicating that he's going to start or push to start this year. He'll get broken in some and play with the 1s and 2s to get some film for the staff to work with, and then next spring it is his to lose.


Who is gone?

Star Jackson. I wasn't surprised that he went in a new direction. He never could get over the fact that his arm wasn't what they wanted him to use.

Thomas Darrah. Somewhere, the fans of Darrah are in their jorts ready to seek revenge. I just hope they are loose fitting and not nut huggers.

Who is new?

Phillip Sims- He has all the ability to be great, there is no questioning that. I don't know that he'll play any this year, but it won't be because he's not ready or not good enough. He has the big arm, good mechanics, and doesn't fear getting hit. His main issue is that his throwing motion is slower than old people screwing. I think this fall he needs to show that he can handle being the scout QB, and show the staff that he's got the mental game down. That always wins with Saban over physical attributes.

THE QUARTERBACKS

The Good…

A proven QB

For all the doubts about him and complaints, he is one of the most experienced QBs in the SEC and already one of the winningest. McElroy will only grow from his experiences and with that and his abilities, I can see good things for the offense this year.

A better schedule for QBs

Sounds like a bad grunge band name, but it is true. There are not as many buzz saw defenses to face like what they saw last year. Penn State is going to be tough, but they are not fast like what Bama sees all fall in the conference. Florida and USCar will be the best 2 they see this fall, but he's already experienced all they have to offer.

The quality of depth is improving each fall

This is a cut and paste from last year but still valid: I think as long as I live, I will remember the Croyle/Pennington/Guillon/Avalos fiasco season where the defense won all 6 games for them and the offense resembled a 9-10 year old rec team. Saban realized early on he didn't have much to work with, and really he is still pretty thin if he is using walkons above 3rd string at times. This fall, however, he has McElroy who has the potential to be very good, McCarron who has the potential to be a long term answer for the team, and Phillip Sims has that potential as well. It seems like 100 years ago that things were that bad, and who knows we may all be snowed over on the talent of these guys, but I doubt that.

The Bad...

The Team AJ v. Team Greg thing...

It really isn't down to fighting yet, but there is always the group that loves the backup QB. I did when Wilson was the QB because he shakes like a tree when he gets hit, and wanted to see McElroy play in 08, but for the most part I usually accept that there is a reason why the depth chart is what it is. Not to jump off subject much, but what would we be talking bout if he had gone to McElroy in 08? Do we talk about our repeat champions or not? Interesting random thought to ponder. When this battle on message boards and coffee tables rages, it will be about experience vs. potential. That's really all AJ can show fans is potential, but he has nothing real to go on yet. That will change this fall, but every time AJ plays, you can bet that there will be about 50 dumb animals who say "see that is who we need out there, he can hit all the throws". Again with the throws thing.....anyways, it will be there and it can be divisive if not handled well by fans and others. My hope is some will just let things be and enjoy what we are seeing and not trying to tinker so much now that Bama is on top.

The Ugly…

The worst case scenario

The traditional ugly for me at QB. The thing here is that we don't know much beyond McElroy. We think, but we don't know. It is one thing to look good in 7 on 7s (total snow job as far as talent evaluation goes) and it is hard to know when watching practices or scrimmages because there are so many situational drills that you can't tell much by them, but it is another thing to look great vs. live opponents. If McElroy gets hurt, and AJ isn't all that we all think he can be, things can get real bad real fast even if the defenses aren't as mean this year. They're still mean enough for a green QB.

DEPTH CHART

Starter- McElroy. even if he loses a game, it is his job for the year.

2nd String- AJ McCarron. He now gets the tough task of waiting and dealing with the wait.

3rd String- Ogilvie. Only because I think Sims will redshirt if at all possible. Look for Morgan to run the clock out vs. San Jose and GA State.

Random Thoughts- The Devil in Optimism

Since summer 2 a days are on the way, well everywhere but Athens (weak), it is time to dust off the GBU preseason guide and start looking down the chart and talking through the good, the bad, and the potential ugly of the 2010 team.

This is really a delicate time for the Crimson Tide in a sense that while they have a lot of reasons to be optimistic and you want your team to believe it can be a champion, there are pitfalls ahead if you get too positive and only focus on the strengths of the team. It would be easy for the Tide to rest on its laurels and do what most teams have done not named USCal and Nebraska over the last 2 decades, but we know that Saban is a little different than that and the quest to repeat is something I think he really, REALLY wants to do.

Saban will earn his payday and then some this fall because now instead of pushing the team to be a champion, they have to play the role of a champion and defend it. They have the talent across the board, they have experienced leaders, they have depth at most areas, they have great coaches, so one would think this is a sure bet, right? Guarding and managing optimism and confidence will be a tough act for a coach that hasn't had to do that much in the last 3 years. If you think back, his first year was about showing them the way, the second was continuing to show the way and build up from that, last year was about finishing what they built, and now it is about what they have built and continuing to build from that. Confusing ain't it? Some will say "Saban has a plan.", others will say "There is nothing wrong with being confident and optimistic.", and they are right to a point. However, there is a reason nobody since USCal (technically) and Nebraska have repeated in the modern era as national champs. LSU's championship teams with Saban and Myles fell flat and did not even attempt to repeat in the end. Florida has come the closest with their 08 and 09 seasons, but they found tough opposition all through 2009 that caught up with them when Bama waited for the revenge they sought.

That's where Bama is now. They all want to be the one that takes Bama down. Every team Bama plays this fall will be circling the game and talking about it in summer drills and fall practices. They will be talking about it in the weight rooms. They will mention it in film over and over. Teams like USCar and UF will be dying for a second chance. Teams like Auburn and Tennessee will be wanting to show the world that they figured out the trick of beating Saban. The devil in optimism is that while Bama has all the pieces to win again, there are several teams looking for ways to take the pieces apart and run through them.

There are 5 things ahead that you will hear and will make you think perfection is ahead, but moderate what you read and hear with what it really means. There are pitfalls in the 5 areas.

1. 7 on 7 drills. 7 on 7 drills are a great way to get deceived when it gets down to it. If you have heard that everyone looks awesome in 7 on 7 s, it is because it is easier to look sharp in that setting. Remember, Star Jackson, Brandon Avalos, Nick Fanuzzi, and others have looked good to the naked eye in that setting. I know from listening to Saban's caravan tour that he values leadership and more intangible items than he does who can jump high, run the fastest, or throw the farthest. 7 on 7s are good for seeing potential, but never ever take them and try to make more than it is.

2. Summer practices open to public. It seems like every year this becomes a real session of who can bullshit the highest when someone gets to view a scrimmage or practice and go online and tell all about it. The thing that I come away with when you ask them about what they saw is pretty much what they wanted to see. The problem comes in when you cannot tell the factual part from the perception. Case in point- how many times did you hear that certain players were studs, beasts, etc. and then they never break the 2 deep? We are all guilty of having pet players or whatever you wanna call it. One poster on a site of bowel movement nature had a thing for Hannaran and he was gonna be special, I couldn't tell you what he looked like much less. Probably the best example is last year's scrimmages. There were some who said McElroy was throwing behind the WRs and they thought Star looked better, others hailed him as greatness. Then you heard later in the year that at any moment, Coach Saban was going to pull McElroy for AJ because he was getting snaps in practice. Folks, if you played any sports at all you know that in some cases, the coaches will let the 2nd string guys fill in during practice to get them ready for emergency needs. Starters pretty well know the playbook (at least in Saban times they do, pre-Saban/post-Stallings not so much at times) and it is good to work through fresh legs and rest tired ones. Does that relay in the posting or emails? No, but it does make for great thread counts and e-fights. I can't think of one game where I thought he was going to lose his job because they were never really behind or struggling to stay in the game for that matter, but again, someone said somewhere.....

3. That damn depth chart. You can fall into the Saban trap and have to chew your leg off to get out if you put deep stock in an early depth chart. I always get a kick out of depth chart analysis. I've learned it is about as good as the paper it is printed on until opening day kickoff. Even then, you trust it with your own peril because Saban isn't afraid to switch around til he likes what he sees. Remember, Barrett Jones came out of nowhere to be the starter, as did Drew Davis, Javier Arenas, and Kareem Jackson became a starter half way through his first year. Dont'a Hightower was a surprise when he beat Prince Hall out in 2008 (well at the time it was). Brandon Fanney surprised several by winning the Jack job after Knight was hurt. The list goes on, but you get the idea. When the depth chart comes out, don't put it in stone just yet.

4. When Coach Saban mentions players.... Another pitfall for endless misplaced optimism comes every press conference that Saban does. It is no wonder he gets pissed and chews reporters for asking questions at times, when he knows the answers will have fans off in a delusional theory fest over every word he lets out. Saban does 2 things in the press conferences that I've picked up on. First, he tries to give as many "shout outs" as he can. It helps their confidence and it helps recruiting to know that you can be mentioned on TV everyday. Second, he takes the time given to put inside messages to players not making the cut. We don't ever know the who, but you can usually pick up on it when he says it. I listen closely to his conferences but I don't try to analyze them very much because Monday could be a bad day, Tuesday a great one, and so on.

5. This year is the year because a player had X stars in high school... My favorite thing in the world is how popular culture has made stars in again. We got them for doing good in kindergarten and now we can see them if you can play ball. If you read my blog often, you know I don't like the star ratings because it is too much gospel for some and they can't understand why a Von Ewing, Albert Means, etc. didn't cut it. I prefer to actually see them play before I get wild about a player. The Team AJ bunch lynches to this a lot because he was a 4 star QB from Mobile. In case you missed it, he had 4 stars....no snaps....no starts... but 4 stars. I know as I type this, Team AJ will stand in their jorts and howl at me. In a couple of days, you'll see I like AJ as much as anyone, but I'm not delusional yet. Tyler Love comes to mind in the stars = starts someday soon thought. Love for the life of him is big enough to play, but isn't going to unless someone gets hurt. There is a lot more to it than just how you look in a jersey or in video against the rug rats of your class level, but how you can project to grow. Sometimes, players are as far as they can go when you are seeing them recruited. Sometimes, a player has a lot of untapped potential that we can't see on film (Arenas comes to mind). So just blurting out "he is a 4 star/5 star and the starter was a 3 star" doesn't really mean much when it gets down to it.

In the end, optimism is a good thing, it makes things go forward, but too much or misplaced optimism can have the exact opposite effect. There are a lot of things to be excited about. You'll see that in each posting as we talk about each roster position. However, if you think this team will easily roll through, or even go undefeated right now, your optimism is probably too high just yet. I know from listening to Saban speak and reading the pre-season mags, he is trying to temper the enthusiasm and keep things more like they were than what they are.

That's kinda the focus this pre-season, where can fans really be optimistic and where might they temper it a bit. In the past, we've always talked about who it would take to be champions, so that's a nice change to go to. It took the GBU/Random Thoughts blog 9 years to get to that point and it wandered through some really bad days, but the fun part is ahead. After this season, the 10 year "special" comes up where I've saved some of the best thoughts and comments over 10 years for a rainy day. Lots of humor in them, although at the time, I don't think some got the "if you don't laugh at it you will cry" style that I use at times. Hopefully it will be after discussion of the repeat, but even if that doesn't occur, I think we'll all be happier with the results now than 10 years ago. I know I will be.