March 1, 2010

Random Thoughts- Spring Drills What to Watch For

With all the luster of the national championship still in full glow, spring practice will be about as much about turning the heads from January to the task at hand. A task that Saban and many not named Pete Carroll have done....repeat. This year is as big for Saban as any because if you remember his follow up season from his LSU title was less than stellar. That team finished 9-3 and got waxed by UGA and lost in a controversial game with Auburn, but the one that probably haunts him and motivates him is the Iowa game. They had the game wrapped up and let Iowa slip down field and hit a TD as the game was ending. So, as this spring comes upon us, he will be preaching about the let down, the bullseye on them, and breaking a trend.

For me, there are a lot of things to watch for. So, with that, just starting at QB and working down. The funny thing is that now my brother is doing these for another site. If you read both, we compare notes a good bit, but differ on somethings. Here are the things worth looking at without all the bull....

Quarterback: Who is the backup?

There are those who lack proper amounts of brain cells, live in a world where dumb is allowed and respected, or are just suffering from being http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yMpsttlXye8&feature=related. In any case, those folks will spend hours telling you that AJ McCarron is going to start. These folks are the former Thomas Darrah is the only hope to win a title fan club. The truth is this folks. Greg McElroy will be the quarterback going into the regular season and the only scenario where he loses the job is if he goes down for the year with some type of injury. At the end of the day, he isn't flashy, he isn't going to win games by throwing 4 TDs and netting 350 yards every Saturday, and some fans hold that against him because he's not the ESPN SportsCenter model. What Greg is is a guy who is comfortable in his skin and gets his role on the team. He isn't trying to throw his arm out or show it off, and he isn't afraid of making mistakes, he just won't make them. He's the first QB in 15 years that I would really feel good about taking from Alabama at a college level. It isn't all about the huge arm and stat lines. There is something about a guy who can just win at this pace like he does. It is special and messing with prosperity is dangerous and I doubt Saban's jerking a guy who just won and did very little to put the defense in a bad position.

Now, who is the backup? That's where my interest starts to peak. McCarron was the backup technically and so was Star Jackson. This is a big spring for Star. Last spring, he had a chance to take the job from McElroy but never appeared ready for the showdown. McCarron comes in from his redshirt the fan favorite so to speak. He has the tools to be the big time QB down the road. He also has the makeup to be like McElroy. Manage the game and work through the fight and win with the supporting cast. Don't believe me? Watch the HS championship game vs. Briarwood and tell me who you see. Star has a big arm but lacks the understanding of what a QB has to do to be Saban's QB. I don't know what his future is if he finishes 3rd or 4th, but if he falls out of 2nd at the end of spring, that is the end of Star the QB. Sims also arrives on campus for spring. It will be fun to see him play in the A Day game, but with 3 guys with no redshirts to apply for, he's almost assured of redshirting and getting a year in the film room and weight room. The early exposure will serve him well though. In the end, I do think that Greg probably doesn't play much at A Day, AJ and Star will be asked to do most of the heavy lifting in the game as they fight for number 2. I look for AJ to come in and hang on to number 2. It will be worth watching no doubt.

Running Backs: Can the staff handle the number of touches that Ingram, Richardson, and Lacy will demand? Also, what do they do with Fowler and Griffin? Does the attrition fairy hover over the other running backs?

What a great problem to have. You have the incumbent Heisman winner, a guy that is probably better than him in the long run in Richardson, and a guy who has fans worked up in Lacy. I don't think they will have a lot of problems with the touches and for Ingram and Richardson, they probably won't notice a difference in the work load. Lacy's carries in games is more than likely kinda like what they tried to do with Grant and Upchurch at times is bring him in late in the halves and let fresh legs whip tired defenses. I would say at A Day, we see a lot of Lacy but not much of Ingram or Richardson because they're ready, we all know it.

Bigger question is what is the plan for Fowler and Griffin? I can't see them taking serious carries from the "big 3", can you? Griffin is coming off an injury and we'll have to see how he responds to the hitting and tackling. If he comes back strong, I could see him taking over for Huber or doing some things like Upchurch did. Same for Fowler. I don't see him really being a feature back or even a short yardage guy because Ingram and Richardson are just that good. Fowler is the mirror image of Marrow and Griffin really and neither of them are gonna get snaps, my fear is that he's gonna get lost in the shuffle as recruiting just continues to bring in top end backs year after year.

After that, is the attrition fairy hovering here? This summer is a tough time for a Goode or Griffin. I don't think Grant gets the boot, but if he transferred (as has been rumored for years now) they aren't missing him. The issue is like Fowler in part, there are just better players in front of them and they have a load of injury issues. This spring is huge for all backs not named Ingram and Richardson in the end. Lacy has to show up and show out and not assume he is in. Grant has to prove to the staff he can be durable. Goode has to remind the staff he's there. Griffin has to prove he can play somewhere. Fowler has the best spot, he can redshirt and do whatever to be whatever he's gonna be.

Wide Receivers/Tight Ends: Can the coaching ever improve to a point where these guys are consistent and catching the ball well? Who will step up and be the true other option for Julio? Is Bowman about to outgrow his WR status? How big will Norwood be for this offense? Can they replace Peek and get Smelley to get his head right?

The biggest goat at times has been the lack of improvement and consistency at WR. Julio is Julio, but he doesn't look like a guy that is about to be a JR and dominate games. He's really been kinda plateaued a bit. Some like to give a quick crutch about this and blame the QB. I won't pretend that isn't a part of it. Nor will I say that it doesn't have something to do with injuries, but it also has to do with coaching and the lack thereof. Maze comes and goes and his routes at times are just junk. Hanks is the same, he does well at times but he gets off routes and breaks them or rounds them off and gets out of sequence. None of the three do much to separate themselves from a defender, and that is pure coaching, and the image of Julio just getting stoned at the snap by TX d backs is fresh there. There is so much potential in those three to not get more than they do makes me wish they would work on them more.

Maze is the most likely to breakout though and be that "other" option for Julio and get the defenses broke off of him some. Norwood is another name to watch for a lot. The staff flat out loves this guy. They did in recruiting him, they did on scout team. He's just a coach's player. I expect big things from him over the next 4 years and this year will hopefully be a good foundation. Bowman is rumored to be around 250 now. As impressive as that can be, he may be getting to a point where he moves to H Back like Smelley and become a threat out of the backfield. I know from first hand that he has no problem with blocking, he did a lot of it. He also could be more like a Tony Gonzalez type where he splits out from the backfield or line and lines up in the slot on a smaller corner in the red zone. That could be fun to watch. This is a big summer for 3 guys at WR. Alexander, Gibson, and Hanks all have a lot to show. EA and Gibby both have just never turned it up and made an impact. I don't expect that status to change. Hanks has impressed at times, but the most vulnerable spot is his and 2 guys really will push him. Kenny Bell has to show me he can play through the "pin shits" before I think much more of him than a return man.

At tight end, they have to replace Peek after a year of service. My boy Williams takes over there. I don't see it being a major drop off for the offense really. He doesn't catch as well as Peek and he may not get the plays to show or improve on that, but he's a pure blocker and improved as he got more PT. He and Dial make a strong bookend TE duo at TE and HB. Dial took over for Smelley as he just didn't have the stuff to block and couldn't catch a bus out of town right now. That's a big story line to me, can Smelley get it together and return to the form that had us all thinking he had a big future? Dial's blocking and the 2 headed workhorse may override anything he does.

Offensive Line: Who takes over for Johnson and Davis? What weight will DJ Fluker report at? Can DJ compete at RT?

There are so many options here, it may be impossible to guess. The two names that probably will get the first shot are Warmack and Boswell. Warmack is a fireplug and his early enrollment helped him. Boswell is a guy who can do about anything you ask of him short of snapping the ball. They are the two that probably get the first run at LG and RT. Steen is the Internet folklore champ with the lore of his weight lifting prowess and he did well in practice/squad work. He will get a run at LG. A name flying under the radar but you better watch is Alfred McCullough. He is a coaches favorite because he's moved from 3 different spots and just done more than expected each time. For a guy his size, he moves extremely well and that will serve him well at RT possibly. This spring is it for Tyler Love. He's gotta assert himself because the incoming talent may overrun him if he continues to lob lolly through. He's the backup left tackle but they will look at him at RT again too. A former poster on BOL, who now resides as a resident expert somewhere else hyped him up for you all, but the facts on the ground are that he's got all the stats you look for but he's about as mean as a hug.

The rest of this section is devoted to the next Andre Smith or Von Ewing/Dennis Alexander. It really is up to him. This spring isn't dire for him, but the pressure of being the big recruit is on him. The fans will root for him but at the same time they will put a lot of expectations on him. You can scan down last year and see my thoughts on that. He's raw folks, he has 2 years of practice/play time at tackle. He also is going to have the weight issue that Smith had/has. DJ has always been the biggest and naturally been able to do things, and like Andre, that can be a plus and a minus at times. My hope is that this spring we see him slimmer and ready to compete. The RT spot is there for him and with his experience level being what it is, that's the best thing for him at OL. He is too big to play guard and too slow to play LT. The problem is that his lack of understanding at RT may hurt him with guys like McCullough and Boswell out there. Can he make the 1st string this spring? I don't think it will settle out by spring. If last spring is a reminder, anything can change over a summer workout session.

Defensive Line: Will the tandem of Chapman and Murphy handle Cody's absence? Will Luther Davis's play finally eclipse his mouth? What kind of depth can they build? Now that Dareus doesn't have to share, will he dominate even more?

I like Chapman. I think he's a better all round NT than Cody because while Cody was a better run stopper/gap filler, he wasn't a force on the pass rush nor was he a threat if a team ran wide for a living. Chapman is strong and did a great job filling in for Cody in 08. He moves well for his size and can rush. I think he and Dareus side by side will be a nice thing because they really are a lot alike. Murphy is a lotta ball player to move around. He can be a really huge factor this year if he continues to get his conditioning and weight in line. Of course, by the time he graduates he will be able to file for social security, but with age comes patience. I think he plays a lot this year and will be a good change of pace from Chapman. I don't think either can replace Cody as far as the presence and protection he gave to the Mike and Will most of the year. I do think that they can do enough things that Cody didn't do and supply enough gap support to make the NT a position we won't worry much about.

I do wonder about Davis. He's been yapping since he committed to Bama and fans love him for his prodding of LSU. He hasn't walked his talk yet either. If the player that showed up for the NC game comes to play this spring, Davis will be all that we thought he can be. If he doesn't and continues to be a guy that comes and goes, Sentimore may be the starter in the summer. Sentimore is another player that the coaches are big on. Damien Square is another that the staff is high on and for a while last year, we all saw it. The injury issue will keep Square out of the competition for the most part this spring, but in the summer, I won't be surprised if he isn't a co starter at some point. He's just that good. The other name to watch is Brandon Lewis. Lewis is early enrolling from JUCO and has all the size and ability to play all 3 spots and has great hands and a fast first move for a guy his size.

Depth will be a key. There really isn't a ton of it with experience. Talbert is just going for diploma. Gentry has played in mop up and he too is just going for diploma. Ming is a guy I like but he hasn't sparked a lot of chatter in practice. My brother calls him the next Greenwood, and you know I am a homer for those guys who just give it all even when their skills don't say they can, but I think Ming can be a little better than that. Bonds and Orr are both wildcards. I don't know how much of a look we'll see this spring, but that is a key thing for me is not really who starts but how good are the guys behind the starters and how much of a gap is there between them.

I have waited for a long time to see Dareus unplugged. This is probably the only year we'll see this much of him, but I expect we will all enjoy the carnage he brings. Dareus's growth over last season was impressive and with him getting all the snaps he wants, the curve only goes higher.

Linebackers: Who replaces RoLo? Can Hightower bounce back to pre-injury form? Can Harris stay focused and meet his expectations? Will the Jack be by committee still or has the staff found their man finally?

Because Bama plays so much Nickel and Dime, I don't worry much about the Will as Johnson won't be on the field as much unless the DBs have more issues than I think they will or Harris can't handle that duty. However, the Mike debacle begins Friday. There is 0 experience at Mike as is. Plenty of experience at Will and that is where the conversation starts. Hightower is the expected starter at Mike, but that isn't so cut and dry. He's got the injury to get through and all reports are that he's fine, but that first pop, tweak, or hit will tell us where he is. If he can take on the Mike and do it at 80 percent of where Rolo was, the defense will be fine. It also will cure the biggest problem they have going into spring. The Sam is a battle between Harris the experienced backup now incumbent vs. Atchison the heralded backup redshirt that the coaches really like. This is the last spring for Watkins and Williams as far as them having a chance. Both have floundered and with depth continuing to build above them, attrition and graduation are ahead. Williams has the capacity to be a player, he just can't seem to take the next step.

At Jack, Upshaw is the semi-incumbent. He looked good later in the year and it looked like the light came on as to how he should play. That's all good and swell, but most feel that Stinson is the prototype for the Jack. There will be more competition in the summer, but for now it is up to them. I think both can be good if not great, but we could find ourselves missing what Anders gave the defense at times. This is the part where I mention Harbin and move on.

In the end, I think these questions still remain unanswered for a variety of reasons. I do think Harris can lock down his spot and Johnson and Hightower will hold theirs. Jack looks to me to be a platoon spot again. There is a lot of depth and a lot of new faces that fans will see for the first time like Patrick, Smith, and a guy like Jordan that hasn't been out there much. It will be fun to watch, but don't expect it to look as smooth as last year.

Secondary: How far are Kirkpatrick, Scott, etc from being ready? Will the suspension of Green make things tough? Can they find the safety to replace him and Woodall at the same time? Will the early enrolees change the conversation?

The suspension of Robbie Green is disappointing and really changes the way I look at this position. Bama is essentially replacing 5 starters in the 2 corners, star, money and strong safety because Barron more than likely is the new FS. Kirkpatrick is the favorite to lock down his spot in the spring, the other corner and the star are hazy. BJ has to show up this spring and show he can be the player he's been hyped to be. I think he's the Star now that Green is out. The other corner probably won't clean up by spring but Jones and the early enrolees Milner and Fulton will all fight out that island. Jones has the experience, but nobody really has said anything spectacular about him. My fear is that there is a reason LSU was willing to let him go to Bama and the staff has found it. I think regardless is that he gets first crack. Fulton is the guy that I think will win in the long run though. Fulton is just a hell of a corner and seems to play his best when he gets on the best wide outs. Milner may be a corner and he may transition to safety like Green did. Hard to tell. This spring is huge though for all. It is do or die for BJ Scott and we all know it. If he gets passed by 2 freshmen, that's it. If he wins the Star or corner job, he's going to be a major weapon to use.

At safety, it gets rough. I know fans like the thoughts of Woodson and Barron together and have wet dreams about the hittin going on. That's all fine, but I don't know if either are fast enough to play next to the other. I definitely don't think they will use that duo in the nickel or dime because of the speed requirements. Lester is probably the first option, but I really hope there is a better one to go with. Lester is a guy that when I watch him, just doesn't impress me. However, he's the only one with speed and he needs to step up and play big. Maybe with more snaps and focus on him, he'll break through. It really is just hard to say much about the safeties without knowing who is going to be there. I think if they are dissatisfied with the play there, you will see about every corner available take a run there.

In the end, I think Dre, BJ, Phelon Mark and Robert come out starters, but outside of 2, the competition will continue in the summer. To be honest it may change 3 times during the season.