Well, if you wanted to see the difference between a championship team and a good team, you got the Cliff's Notes version Saturday. What is funny is when you go to your favorite sites, you will see the jealousy masked in comments about Tebow and Meyer. Bottom line, those two are big time player/coach and all the griping about the Spread not winning and all that has to die now. They won. Period.
The Good...
3rd Quarter
I really liked the mentality coming out of the half. They reset and went back to their basic offense- north south running and play action short passing, and they attacked on defense. They kept Florida off the field and chewed up massive amounts of clock while they shut out Florida 10-0 in the 3rd. By the end of the 3rd, the momentum and game were in Bama's court. It just went away at the start of the 4th...
Individual efforts
Justin Woodall, Hightower, McClain, Fanney, Greenwood, Coffee, and Julio Jones all played championship level ball Saturday. I thought the option played well into Fanney's strength (run defense) and they went at him for a bit only to find out he's solid on the corner. Really, I thought the line/LB's played well overall, they didn't get ran over, but you can't beat a 5 man front as good as UF's with 4 guys. I thought Woodall understood the Spread Option well and was in position for most of the night. He didn't shy away from hitting Tebow either, speaking of which, RJ probably would like to not hit Tebow anytime soon, he got rung when the big boy lowered his shoulder to him.
The Julio Jones Celebrity Hour
It was another night of Wilson high right passing. Against Florida's safeties, that means you are going to get popped and it's gonna hurt. Jones likes contact, there ain't much doubting that, but he went after several passes that were just off. Jones makes Wilson look better than he is really, but all good WR do, and he's going to make McElroy better because he goes over the middle and QB's like to throw down the pipe and put it up to where the WR climbs the ladder and gets it. The nice thing is that he's just a freshman and he already plays at a 3rd or 4th year player level.
Gritty effort
Some folks had Florida winning in OU fashion. Some said that Bama couldn't play with Florida. Bama proved it deserved to be there and put their best effort on it, there wasn't a player that didn't give his effort to the game, but sometimes, there are just better teams out there across from you. Florida was that team.
The Bad...
First series on both sides of the ball
If you read the Random Thoughts, you know I thought that Bama had to keep the ball and then get 3 and outs where they can. The first drives of the game weren't that by a long shot. I guess the thing that I didn't like was that when Florida got the ball, Bama looked confused as to what was coming. It was pretty obvious after about the 3rd or 4th play that they weren't going to stop them on that drive. The best thing that could have happened was to get off the field, regroup and start over.
4th quarter
It is rare that Bama doesn't own or pull even in the 4th on teams, even when the Shula teams sucked, but on Saturday when the last round was ready, Florida answered the bell, Bama didn't. 1 yard total offense vs. 14 points tells a story in itself.
CBS ejaculating over Tebow-mania
I don't have a problem with Tebow (more on him later), but I do have a problem with how Tebow is done by CBS. That's where my complaint over Tebow would be is in the constant drum beat by Verne and Gary each and every play. Yes, Tim Tebow is a phenomenal player and he is one of the best leaders I've ever seen, but when he's not on the field, I don't need to be reminded about him.
Javier Arenas
I don't call out players much, at least not directly, but this one has to be. You could see it in his body language, his head wasn't in the game or the team, it was about him showing off against Florida, mission failed. I've mentioned several times that he's the kinda guy that can win a game for you, and he can lose it for you. Saturday, he made about 4 key errors that played into the loss. At some point the staff will lose its patience with Arenas because it is all about the big play and ESPN moment with him and not making the right play every time. Arenas is extremely talented, and he's been big at times, but as we all knew going in, the special teams needed to be solid in all phases, and Arenas' play definitely was a factor.
Tight play calling
Florida's defense is good, I wouldn't call it the best Bama's seen this year, but it is good. I thought Bama's play calling contributed to them looking better than they were though. There were times where it felt like the game's decisions were being vetted 3 or 4 times before it happened like they were trying to out smart Florida and Strong. Why? You beat teams with your game, not the game that you think will win. I liked a lot of what they did during the game, but there were times where it just left a lot to be desired. For example, Bama gets the short field on a punt and penalty, Bama motors down to the red zone and then just stalls out because they call plays that ran straight into Florida's strengths. Of course Ingram cut the wrong way on one, but that was one play in 3 that didn't work.
The Ugly...
Special Teams blunders
Did you ever feel like you were in Groundhog's Day? I bet Saban has felt that for 10 out of 13 weeks where there have been gaffes in the special teams that have changed the momentum and progress of the game. While it wasn't the coach's call to fake the kick, why would it be an option with your punter and kicker? A backup QB or a WR, I could see, but that duo wouldn't get 10 yards on a high school team. My hope is that they will take a lot of time to review where the special teams are going and decide how they want to address it because it is old now.
Random Thoughts
Is Tim Tebow the greatest player ever? For starts, that is a subjective question that an answer is based on your emotion and concept of what makes one great. I'll say this, he's one damn good player and probably the best in the modern BCS cable generation of players. I think the underlying thought that comes in Tebow Hating for Bama fans is the recruiting process. He jilted Bama and the fans hold that against them because they read from "experts" that he was coming to Bama, but he didn't. All Bama got was a linebacker that couldn't play for Troy. So yeah, they have a gripe, but don't let that fool you. He's a really solid player and doesn't have a lot of flaws in his game. Some try to make faults about his passing capacities, nope. He hit 4 or 5 passes that were spot on and he makes reads at a level that only a few can (most were named Manning). He is physical and leads by example. It took guts for him to stand up to the media and say we mailed it in against Ole Miss but it won't happen again. It didn't. He wants to win and he wants Florida to win, that's unique in this era of football where 3 years and out is more likely than 5 years of participation.
I think if someone wanted to make an unbiased opinion, the list of bests at each position would surprise many. I don't think I could because I have my opinions and biases that would weigh into it, but perhaps taking a statistics major who hates football and asking him to develop a method to answer the age old question. Doubt that happens. Regardless, Tebow deserves to be in the discussion because he's gifted and wins. He rubs us all wrong because he has an air about him, but damn, he backs it up.
Buy/Sell/Hold
Andre Smith will stay in school and participate his Senior Year
Sell. With the NFL changing the Rookie salary cap after this year, and the money being less next season, he's more gone than Tubberville. Also gone are Moreno (he's quit going to classes), Stafford, and several USCal players.
Alabama's OL will not lose a beat regardless
Sell. It took this line 3 or 4 years to get it together and its pass protection still leaves something to be desired. I like Fluker, a lot, but a freshman is still a freshman, even Smith had his moments his Fr year. Vlachos will be the Center if Cardwell's injury issues don't improve and that doesn't give me warm fuzzy feelings given he is not that tall. In the SEC, the DTs seem to be ranging 6-5ish more these days. 5 inches is a lot to give up. We'll see, but there will be growing pains next season, there always is with new faces.
Ole Miss and Florida will be the pre-season favorites in the SEC
Buy. Of course there are all sorts of who stays and goes stuff, but just on how they played down the stretch, those two are the top of the list with Bama, LSU, and USCar all in the hunt more than likely. UGA will be in rebuild mode, again, and UT will be deconstructing the issues, as will Auburn.
Florida can't contain OU
Hold. Florida hasn't been pressed by an offense all year. They'll get that test finally. However, I think the bigger issue is can OU stop Florida? I don't think they can. I really think the result will be that OU and the Big 12 and their lack of defense and running games will get caught a lot this bowl season.
Bowl Pick'em
Navy vs Wake Forest
EAGLEBANK BOWL
11:00 AM ET
This is a rematch from earlier this year, and the result will be the same. Wake Forrest wins.
Fresno State vs Colorado State
NEW MEXICO BOWL
2:30 PM ET
Probably the worst game of the season, but I'll watch it because it is football and it beats having to talk to my wife, just kidding honey but not really, FSU wins big.
South Florida vs Memphis
MAGICJACK ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
4:30 PM ET
This game could be the high point winner of the season as defense is what other teams do. I like USF on this one because it is practically in their back yard.
No. 16 Brigham Young at Arizona
PIONEER LAS VEGAS BOWL
8:00 PM ET
It has been 10 years since Zona went bowling and this is the BYU classic it seems. BYU has too much offense for a Zona program turning the corner.
Troy vs Southern Miss
R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL
8:15 PM ET
This one actually will be worth watching because most of us are familiar with both teams. USM continues to be one of those teams that always wins regardless and Troy continues to be that team nobody wants to play OOC. I'd take Troy on this one, USM is gritty, but they aren't playing as well as Troy right now.
No. 9 Boise State at No. 11 TCU
SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL
8:00 PM ET
This game is an early big game trial for 2 teams feeling jilted by the bigger bowls. Boise is a known commodity and TCU has always skated just under the radar. It also matches strength on strength. This is a pickem if there ever was one, don't put money on it, but I'd take TCU in the upset here. They've been tested more.
Notre Dame vs Hawaii
SHERATON HAWAII BOWL
8:00 PM ET
The luck of the Irish shines on ND again, you suck and you got to go to Hawaii for the reward. The Irish eyes won't be smiling though, Hawaii will run them off the island.
Central Michigan vs Florida Atlantic
MOTOR CITY BOWL
8:00 PM ET
Dan LeFevour and the CMU get to splash water on FAU's dream season. Take CMU big on this one because they have played teams well (UGA comes to mind) and are battle ready.
North Carolina vs West Virginia
MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
1:00 PM ET
This is a game where you will look back in a year or two and say this is where their march started. Both teams are up and coming teams in a way, but take WVU on the game because they are far more talented on offense than what UNC has seen this year.
Florida State vs Wisconsin
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
4:30 PM ET
Once upon a time, this would have been a worthwhile game, this isn't that time, both teams are still hunting their identity and will waller all over each other doing it. FSU because Wisconsin is SLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW
California vs Miami (FL)
EMERALD BOWL
8:00 PM ET
Randy Shannon can't turn water into wine, nor can he make the U defend the run. Cal will take its frustrations of USC's shadow out on Miami.
Louisiana Tech vs Northern Illinois
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
8:15 PM ET
What happens when the SEC and Big 12 can't fill the roster? You get this nugget that could bankrupt the Shreeve....I don't give a damn who wins, but I'd take NIU if you made me.
Rutgers vs North Carolina State
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
3:00 PM ET
Here's a matchup of two teams that rumbled through the 2nd half of their seasons to get there. Birmingham gets its bowl on to a pretty good game, take Rutgers because they have more experience and intangibles at this stage.
No. 21 Missouri at No. 23 Northwestern
VALERO ALAMO BOWL
8:00 PM ET
Missouri was supposed to be in bigger things, and Northwestern was just supposed to lay there and take it this year, neither happened. Missouri wins because the Daniels-Macklin combo will not be stopped by any Big 10 defense.
Nevada vs Maryland
ROADY'S HUMANITARIAN BOWL
4:30 PM ET
Blue field, cold weather, blue balls....that probably has more of a storyline than the game, Nevada wins because Maryland can't decide what it wants to be and them boys ain't known cold like this.....
No. 13 Oklahoma State at No. 17 Oregon
PACIFIC LIFE HOLIDAY BOWL
8:00 PM ET
If USF/Memphis doesn't win the high score total, this one probably does. OSU has come close all year to being the fly in the ointment, but didn't happen, same for Oregon. I like OSU in this one because they've been through the big offenses and Oregon won't throw anything they haven't seen, plus they don't have the talent that Texas and OU have.
Western Michigan vs Rice
TEXAS BOWL
8:00 PM ET
Boy, when you want to just spread the wealth, you really have to dig deep to justify this bowl game. Rice hasn't won a bowl since grandpa was spry. Rice wins because WMU is not much more than a MAC sit in.
Air Force vs Houston
BELL HELICOPTER ARMED FORCES BOWL
12:00 PM ET
We'll remember the coaches in this game more than the game probably as both are young and working up the ladder to better things. These two played earlier in the year, AF won, and the Air Force should win again.
No. 20 Pittsburgh vs Oregon State
SUN BOWL
2:00 PM ET
It isn't the Sun Bowl without Ray Perkins is it? Oregon St should win this one because Pitt really isn't that good.
No. 24 Boston College at Vanderbilt
GAYLORD HOTELS MUSIC CITY BOWL
3:30 PM ET
Vandy goes bowling and they get to do it at home, how nice. Gaylord Focker Bowl sucks for the SEC every year, I wonder if the Coaches and ADs will push to see this one go away when the contract is up? BC big in this one.
Minnesota vs Kansas
INSIGHT BOWL
5:30 PM ET
Sota is riding a wave of cheap wins in, Kansas just wishes their coach didn't look like a blueberry. Kansas wins because Sota sucks.
No. 14 Georgia Tech vs LSU
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
7:30 PM ET
Les Miles wishes that this one didn't have to be. Paul Johnson is smiling from ear to ear. Ga Tech will run the offense that can't beat the SEC defenses for yet another victory over an SEC defense. Oops.
Iowa vs South Carolina
OUTBACK BOWL
11:00 AM ET
Can't be New Years without the Ol Ball Coach, and like most New Year's Day games with Spurrier, Iowa will win.
No. 15 Georgia at No. 18 Michigan State
CAPITAL ONE BOWL
1:00 PM ET
This is a bowl of two teams going downward fast. MSU has the power running game, Georgia has hype. I'd take UGA in a close one.
Nebraska vs Clemson
GATOR BOWL
1:00 PM ET
Dabo has the Tigers moving in the right direction and Nebraska is just happy to not see a team from the southwest...Nebraska wins.
No. 5 USC vs No. 8 Penn State
THE ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY CITI
4:30 PM ET
The Trojan Classic feeds the masses with another poor victim. Don't buy into the JoePa hype, they haven't seen talent yet until they see USCal play, USCal big.
No. 12 Cincinnati at No. 19 Virginia Tech
FEDEX ORANGE BOWL
8:30 PM ET
If there was a sorrier BCS game, I'd love to see it on paper. Fox plus this stinker equals lots of beer to stomach this one. Cincy wins this one because they're better than you think.
No. 7 Texas Tech vs No. 25 Mississippi
COTTON BOWL
2:00 PM ET
Since when did mean nothing bowls get moved this late? Nice matchup though between 2 programs moving up. Take Ole Miss on this one, that gap tooth line thing won't work against that huge NT they have.
East Carolina vs Kentucky
AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL
5:00 PM ET
More attention for the SEC on the 2nd, but it won't be what they wanted. ECU wins because Kentucky has limped into the bowl season and ECU is getting healthy again.
No. 4 Alabama vs No. 6 Utah
ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL
8:00 PM ET
You really think I'm gonna give it away already?
- January 3, 2009 -
Connecticut vs Buffalo
INTERNATIONAL BOWL
12:00 PM ET
Nothing makes me think college football more than Canada. Maybe the gravy and fries will be good, because the game sucks. The coaches are as good as gone so you know the prep work won't be there. Take UConn.
No. 3 Texas vs No. 10 Ohio State
TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL
8:00 PM ET
Neither team is happy to be here, both thought they were championship teams in August, Texas has a case and a big win against an overrated OSU team that has no business in the BCS this winter. Then again, have they the last 2?
No. 22 Ball State vs Tulsa
GMAC BOWL
8:00 PM ET
Because someone thought meaningless bowl games mean something after New Year's, ugh. Ball State big.
No. 1 Oklahoma vs No. 2 Florida
FEDEX BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
8:00 PM ET
Interesting matchup and a full month of sitting around having to listen to Tebow mania will be enough motivation for Chokelahoma, but this is Chokelahoma and the Stoops crying marketing campaign comes to an end. Florida has too much speed and defense for OU.
December 8, 2008
December 4, 2008
Random Thoughts- Florida
Ok, it is Florida time and everyone wants to act like they understand the Meyer offensive strategy. It isn't just their offense, the real catalyst for the team is their defense, just like Alabama. So, here's the drill....
Alabama's offense vs. Florida's defense
Florida runs a 4-3 defense that relies on strength in the middle and speed to the outside. Their speed almost makes the linebackers like 3 safeties when they are in base formations. Brandon Spikes is the name of the group and we all remember him from recruiting battles long since lost. Spikes is a big guy, and reminds me a lot of Rudd or a slightly less aggressive Derrick Thomas. Jones, Hicks and Doe remind me a lot of Shula type linebackers, smaller, faster, more cover than tackle guys. That works into what Strong is doing at Florida because their defense creates turnovers and the offense puts the points up off those turnovers, so the linebackers play more coverage than attack because teams are forced to go 1 dimensional early and often. Stamper plays a lot, and has started some at OLB, he is Spikes main backup as well.
Don't let the linebackers smokescreen how good their front 4 has been. Carlos Dunlap is a physical tackle/end that is more of a pass rusher than run stopper. He's 290 and is real good with his hands. He swats linemen from engaging him and gets inside the line a great deal. When I was watching the FSU game, he had 2-3 sacks and was beating his side off the end and inside, so he isn't a one trick pony. Jermaine Cunningham plays the other end, and is a pure rush end. he's a bit small at 250, so you'd almost say when he's playing they are running a 3-4 with him up on the line. Terron Sanders is their top interior lineman, but he's not a dominator like Cody (who is) nor is he extremely disruptive. He takes up gaps and clogs which he is good at. He doesn't look like he's a weight room kinda guy though. Marsh plays opposite of him, but is out still hurt but playing. His backup is Antwine and he's big but stays beat up a lot. He has conditioning needs that if he addressed them, he'd stay off the trainers table more, he's out and so is the other tackle Patchan. Patchan is a gritty guy and if he were playing, Bama would not have as much of an advantage as they will with him out. The Gators run a lot of linemen out there, before the season they wanted to run 10 if able, but with the injuries mounting, I'd say the 4 will go most of the night.
The Gator secondary if anything is young and with time and battle scars will be a great group in time. They got picked on by Ole Miss in their lone loss of the year and over pursue at times. Florida fans will probably point to Black as their best, but in my opinion, Major Wright is the centerpiece. The times I've watched Florida, as Wright goes, so does the defense.
So, how to beat them? Well, if you try to go outside to outside with them, you'll lose. You have to establish up the gut running. Bama does that well most of the time. Dunlap is going to give the OL trouble, but I think they will use Walker/McCall as backup support on him and continue running north and south. When you have gotten the safeties and linebackers up in the box, the play action time comes in. Travis McCall and Nick Walker could have big nights because the speed that Florida has will limit the route time that Bama can use. Florida plays little to 0 zone coverage in their packages, they do go zone with their safeties on 3rd down, but the corners play bump man or man release most games. There will be 1 on 1 opportunities for Jones and Stover to establish in space on curls, outs, slants, etc. I don't see the offense excelling if they try to burn them deep because they lack the players to do that kind of offense, but they can wear and smash mouth Florida down the field with balanced run/pass play calling. I would expect to see the Tide use some counter plays as well and pull Marlon Davis and Mike Johnson off the line and follow with the TE as lead blockers for Coffee and Ingram.
Bama's OL is going to have some size and weight advantages, but the key will be engaging the defense before it engages them. Smith and Davis have struggled with speed rushers because they lack the footwork to get around on them. The TE's may have to support more and stay out of routes at time until the play action and run game backs them off. This is not going to be a game where Bama gets 200 yards rushing, I don't think, because this defense swarms in the box and keeps backs from hitting the 2nd and 3rd levels. Don't look for trick plays either. The speed and heady play these guys use would turn a trick play into a major momentum shift with an INT or fumble. I think the key is to confuse the secondary with some different looks and throwing on running situations and running on throwing situations (Bama hasn't been exactly tricky in the play calling but haven't had to because they dominate up front).
Bama wins this battle if they play smart, physical, and take advantage of the Jones v. Haden/Jenkins matchup. Florida wins if they force Wilson to beat them down field and do what they've done all year, create turnovers.
Florida's Offense v. Bama's Defense
Everyone knows Tim Tebow and what he does. His athleticism and physical nature forces teams to play back a bit. That's the main mistake teams make with Florida. You can't out zone them or contain them all day. He's too smart and his running ability is only magnified when you do it. The thing that teams continuously do is try to confuse him, but this offense has so many options and check downs that you just can't beat them with coverage, it takes pressure.
What Florida wants to do with the ball is get match ups. Tebow on a small linebacker, Harvin on a linebacker, Moody on a corner, etc. are all match ups in their favor 9 out of 10 times. They will also run a lot of what I call misdirection plays (counters, direct snaps to the back, option counters) to get the defense flat footed in space and use their speed to punish them for it. It isn't a simple offense from a read perspective. They will run and throw from any formation and unit grouping.
Many fans think because they score 50 points at will, they are a fast offense that keeps their defense on the field. That's farthest from reality. They do score fast on short field drives from turnovers, but they do like to move the field and wear teams out with the option. Tebow will not throw it 50 times nor will he run it 50. Folks have this conception of him, but Florida is performing at its best when he throws about 15-20 times and runs about 7-15 times. The 2 games he passed a lot, Miami and Ole Miss, were the worst games they had. The bulk of their passing game is short and controlled. Consider it like Bama's with more focus on 1 on 1 and less route precision.
Don't get hung up on Tebow-mania just yet, because he's got the best supporting cast in the SEC if not America. He has Percy Harvin (College's fastest player worth a damn), Rainey, Demps, the 2 Moores, and Hernandez the H-Back/TE (McCall 10 pounds lighter and with better hands). Harvin is very important to this offense. If he is out, or reduced to either a RB or WR role, the mystery and trickery is gone. That's what he does for the offense is that he can come out of the backfield and draw a match up favorable, go in motion at WR and take an option handoff/reverse, take direct snaps, throw, be the decoy and open up the flat to Hernandez, and so on. Their run plays are all read/option plays where there are 2 to 4 different scenarios that Tebow and the running backs/WR have in each play called where it could go from draw to sweep to keeper to keeper pitch, etc.
Florida relies on more zone blocking schemes because they use the speed backs to hit the gaps fast and attack the defenses. Don't let the term fool you. It is more like the old Michigan zone blocking and not that piss poor one Bob had. Their guys are all over 300 all 6-5+ and get in the zone fast. Trautwein is an NFL prospect who anchors the end and the Pouncey twins hold the interior for the offense.
On defense, it is all about attacking and discipline. Bama has done that all year on defense but has not faced an offense this diverse, balanced, and gifted. I would say that Bama goes nickel the majority of the night to get more speed on the field and that formation is where they get their best 11 on the field by rotating Sharrief, Ma. Johnson, Woodall, Anders, Chapman, and others in and out. Cory Reamer probably won't see much time on the field unless Florida completely changes its identity for this one. Another thing they may have to go to is the "quarters" formation where they use 3 down (Greenwood/Cody or Chapman/Deaderick) 1-2 backs (McClain/Hightower) and 6-7 DBs (Arenas/Johnson/Jackson/Sharrief/Woodall/Jackson/Rogers or King or Barron). I think they will try to stay in the nickel and press their luck there because the other will expose the run more. The Quarter will use space and speed to keep everything in check, and keep the WR routes congested, but it is more of a prevent type of defense.
The keys for Bama are simple, Cody and the down linemen must close the gaps in the middle and force things to the outside. From that point, the LBs and the S's and Arenas have to be on top of the play fast and tackle soundly. They cannot let the flat get abandoned. A backer or safety has to stay at home and cover the middle of the field because that is where Tebow's home is both running and passing. I wouldn't spy Tebow or Harvin because there isn't one person that ideally can do that with either due to their unique size (TT) and speed (PH) that they possess. Instead, if Bama moves sideline to sideline as their linebackers and star (Arenas) do most nights, they should keep things in play. Saban's philosophy is not to man up directly and have McClain on a tailback exclusively like most 4-3 man coverages require. Instead, he asks the linebackers to read the play and attack from whatever position they are at. I think that plays big into the storyline of the night too. If Bama can mask the blitz or get good penetration from the front 5-7 (depending on formation) they can into Tebow's head some and force him to become uncomfortable.
Ole Miss did that in part, they used their big nose tackle to disrupt the middle and their linebackers and DBs covered the outside well enough that it kept Tebow bottled up. Tebow is much less effective when he's asked to stay at home and not warm up to the flow of the game with his legs. Again, don't get fooled into thinking you beat him by making him just throw, you must still force his throws early or mask the coverage and make him read zone and go man or read man and go zone blitz on top of bottling him.
The biggest "tip" that the offense makes is in its pre-snap motion. When Meyer was at Utah, I could call the play from home based on the motion that occurred as being a run or option or pass based on how the H Back and WR/RB (Harvin) moved pre-snap. When the back goes from slot to back in motion, it is option left a high percentage of the time. When the back goes to slot or isolation it is QB draw or play fake pass. When there is no motion, it is pass. When they go "full house" and have two backs stacked left or right, that is the Tebow keeper, but you have to man cover the TE in short and goal situations.
Special Teams
Florida isn't fancy on special teams, they just execute with Brandon James. Bama's biggest weak spot at times has been coverage, but they've improved in the last month in particular with Pegues and Auburn's tandem being in check. This guy though is the Bentley to those team's Mercury Cougar. James can beat you on his own if he gets space. Bama must hold its lanes in check and punt away from him. I'd call it a moral victory if PJ's punt average is 35 and James' average return is less than 10. Cory Reamer is the biggest thing standing between PJ and disaster and how well he picks up the biggest threat will be key to keeping the defense out of bad situations. Florida wants to get some shanks/blocks early to get the score lopsided and have the Bama offense off its game plan.
Bottom line
It is Florida's speed vs. the power that Bama plays. Florida in the past has wilted against teams that came out hitting them and played disciplined (Auburn, Ole Miss, Miiiiichigan, LSU, UGA) and the offense is not a power option offense. It won't slug out series with others in the way the triple option style teams do (Tech), it can't take that kind of slow methodical beatdown approach and win. They are built for long drives, but it has to be up tempo. Their defense plays lights out and gives up big plays but creates well more than they give. They will try to rush Wilson out and try to get him rattled and throwing low percentage passes (like JPW's last 2 seasons were). They want Wilson to be the guy to beat them and not let the run game dictate the flow. They want to stay off the WRs and react to the ball and try to get in the passing lanes.
Alabama has to play that wear down drag out style and keep Florida's O on the bench because as good as their defense is, they can't keep them pinned all night, they will score. The best series of events that could happen is to have UF get the ball 1st, 3 and out, Bama take a 10 play 6-8 min drive get 7, and get another 3-5 play and out. Then follow that with a long drive with time off the clock and points if you can, but just keeping UF hemmed up on the sidelines will frustrate Meyer more than scoring will.
I think Bama's philosophy has more of a chance Saturday
Bama 24 Florida 17
Alabama's offense vs. Florida's defense
Florida runs a 4-3 defense that relies on strength in the middle and speed to the outside. Their speed almost makes the linebackers like 3 safeties when they are in base formations. Brandon Spikes is the name of the group and we all remember him from recruiting battles long since lost. Spikes is a big guy, and reminds me a lot of Rudd or a slightly less aggressive Derrick Thomas. Jones, Hicks and Doe remind me a lot of Shula type linebackers, smaller, faster, more cover than tackle guys. That works into what Strong is doing at Florida because their defense creates turnovers and the offense puts the points up off those turnovers, so the linebackers play more coverage than attack because teams are forced to go 1 dimensional early and often. Stamper plays a lot, and has started some at OLB, he is Spikes main backup as well.
Don't let the linebackers smokescreen how good their front 4 has been. Carlos Dunlap is a physical tackle/end that is more of a pass rusher than run stopper. He's 290 and is real good with his hands. He swats linemen from engaging him and gets inside the line a great deal. When I was watching the FSU game, he had 2-3 sacks and was beating his side off the end and inside, so he isn't a one trick pony. Jermaine Cunningham plays the other end, and is a pure rush end. he's a bit small at 250, so you'd almost say when he's playing they are running a 3-4 with him up on the line. Terron Sanders is their top interior lineman, but he's not a dominator like Cody (who is) nor is he extremely disruptive. He takes up gaps and clogs which he is good at. He doesn't look like he's a weight room kinda guy though. Marsh plays opposite of him, but is out still hurt but playing. His backup is Antwine and he's big but stays beat up a lot. He has conditioning needs that if he addressed them, he'd stay off the trainers table more, he's out and so is the other tackle Patchan. Patchan is a gritty guy and if he were playing, Bama would not have as much of an advantage as they will with him out. The Gators run a lot of linemen out there, before the season they wanted to run 10 if able, but with the injuries mounting, I'd say the 4 will go most of the night.
The Gator secondary if anything is young and with time and battle scars will be a great group in time. They got picked on by Ole Miss in their lone loss of the year and over pursue at times. Florida fans will probably point to Black as their best, but in my opinion, Major Wright is the centerpiece. The times I've watched Florida, as Wright goes, so does the defense.
So, how to beat them? Well, if you try to go outside to outside with them, you'll lose. You have to establish up the gut running. Bama does that well most of the time. Dunlap is going to give the OL trouble, but I think they will use Walker/McCall as backup support on him and continue running north and south. When you have gotten the safeties and linebackers up in the box, the play action time comes in. Travis McCall and Nick Walker could have big nights because the speed that Florida has will limit the route time that Bama can use. Florida plays little to 0 zone coverage in their packages, they do go zone with their safeties on 3rd down, but the corners play bump man or man release most games. There will be 1 on 1 opportunities for Jones and Stover to establish in space on curls, outs, slants, etc. I don't see the offense excelling if they try to burn them deep because they lack the players to do that kind of offense, but they can wear and smash mouth Florida down the field with balanced run/pass play calling. I would expect to see the Tide use some counter plays as well and pull Marlon Davis and Mike Johnson off the line and follow with the TE as lead blockers for Coffee and Ingram.
Bama's OL is going to have some size and weight advantages, but the key will be engaging the defense before it engages them. Smith and Davis have struggled with speed rushers because they lack the footwork to get around on them. The TE's may have to support more and stay out of routes at time until the play action and run game backs them off. This is not going to be a game where Bama gets 200 yards rushing, I don't think, because this defense swarms in the box and keeps backs from hitting the 2nd and 3rd levels. Don't look for trick plays either. The speed and heady play these guys use would turn a trick play into a major momentum shift with an INT or fumble. I think the key is to confuse the secondary with some different looks and throwing on running situations and running on throwing situations (Bama hasn't been exactly tricky in the play calling but haven't had to because they dominate up front).
Bama wins this battle if they play smart, physical, and take advantage of the Jones v. Haden/Jenkins matchup. Florida wins if they force Wilson to beat them down field and do what they've done all year, create turnovers.
Florida's Offense v. Bama's Defense
Everyone knows Tim Tebow and what he does. His athleticism and physical nature forces teams to play back a bit. That's the main mistake teams make with Florida. You can't out zone them or contain them all day. He's too smart and his running ability is only magnified when you do it. The thing that teams continuously do is try to confuse him, but this offense has so many options and check downs that you just can't beat them with coverage, it takes pressure.
What Florida wants to do with the ball is get match ups. Tebow on a small linebacker, Harvin on a linebacker, Moody on a corner, etc. are all match ups in their favor 9 out of 10 times. They will also run a lot of what I call misdirection plays (counters, direct snaps to the back, option counters) to get the defense flat footed in space and use their speed to punish them for it. It isn't a simple offense from a read perspective. They will run and throw from any formation and unit grouping.
Many fans think because they score 50 points at will, they are a fast offense that keeps their defense on the field. That's farthest from reality. They do score fast on short field drives from turnovers, but they do like to move the field and wear teams out with the option. Tebow will not throw it 50 times nor will he run it 50. Folks have this conception of him, but Florida is performing at its best when he throws about 15-20 times and runs about 7-15 times. The 2 games he passed a lot, Miami and Ole Miss, were the worst games they had. The bulk of their passing game is short and controlled. Consider it like Bama's with more focus on 1 on 1 and less route precision.
Don't get hung up on Tebow-mania just yet, because he's got the best supporting cast in the SEC if not America. He has Percy Harvin (College's fastest player worth a damn), Rainey, Demps, the 2 Moores, and Hernandez the H-Back/TE (McCall 10 pounds lighter and with better hands). Harvin is very important to this offense. If he is out, or reduced to either a RB or WR role, the mystery and trickery is gone. That's what he does for the offense is that he can come out of the backfield and draw a match up favorable, go in motion at WR and take an option handoff/reverse, take direct snaps, throw, be the decoy and open up the flat to Hernandez, and so on. Their run plays are all read/option plays where there are 2 to 4 different scenarios that Tebow and the running backs/WR have in each play called where it could go from draw to sweep to keeper to keeper pitch, etc.
Florida relies on more zone blocking schemes because they use the speed backs to hit the gaps fast and attack the defenses. Don't let the term fool you. It is more like the old Michigan zone blocking and not that piss poor one Bob had. Their guys are all over 300 all 6-5+ and get in the zone fast. Trautwein is an NFL prospect who anchors the end and the Pouncey twins hold the interior for the offense.
On defense, it is all about attacking and discipline. Bama has done that all year on defense but has not faced an offense this diverse, balanced, and gifted. I would say that Bama goes nickel the majority of the night to get more speed on the field and that formation is where they get their best 11 on the field by rotating Sharrief, Ma. Johnson, Woodall, Anders, Chapman, and others in and out. Cory Reamer probably won't see much time on the field unless Florida completely changes its identity for this one. Another thing they may have to go to is the "quarters" formation where they use 3 down (Greenwood/Cody or Chapman/Deaderick) 1-2 backs (McClain/Hightower) and 6-7 DBs (Arenas/Johnson/Jackson/Sharrief/Woodall/Jackson/Rogers or King or Barron). I think they will try to stay in the nickel and press their luck there because the other will expose the run more. The Quarter will use space and speed to keep everything in check, and keep the WR routes congested, but it is more of a prevent type of defense.
The keys for Bama are simple, Cody and the down linemen must close the gaps in the middle and force things to the outside. From that point, the LBs and the S's and Arenas have to be on top of the play fast and tackle soundly. They cannot let the flat get abandoned. A backer or safety has to stay at home and cover the middle of the field because that is where Tebow's home is both running and passing. I wouldn't spy Tebow or Harvin because there isn't one person that ideally can do that with either due to their unique size (TT) and speed (PH) that they possess. Instead, if Bama moves sideline to sideline as their linebackers and star (Arenas) do most nights, they should keep things in play. Saban's philosophy is not to man up directly and have McClain on a tailback exclusively like most 4-3 man coverages require. Instead, he asks the linebackers to read the play and attack from whatever position they are at. I think that plays big into the storyline of the night too. If Bama can mask the blitz or get good penetration from the front 5-7 (depending on formation) they can into Tebow's head some and force him to become uncomfortable.
Ole Miss did that in part, they used their big nose tackle to disrupt the middle and their linebackers and DBs covered the outside well enough that it kept Tebow bottled up. Tebow is much less effective when he's asked to stay at home and not warm up to the flow of the game with his legs. Again, don't get fooled into thinking you beat him by making him just throw, you must still force his throws early or mask the coverage and make him read zone and go man or read man and go zone blitz on top of bottling him.
The biggest "tip" that the offense makes is in its pre-snap motion. When Meyer was at Utah, I could call the play from home based on the motion that occurred as being a run or option or pass based on how the H Back and WR/RB (Harvin) moved pre-snap. When the back goes from slot to back in motion, it is option left a high percentage of the time. When the back goes to slot or isolation it is QB draw or play fake pass. When there is no motion, it is pass. When they go "full house" and have two backs stacked left or right, that is the Tebow keeper, but you have to man cover the TE in short and goal situations.
Special Teams
Florida isn't fancy on special teams, they just execute with Brandon James. Bama's biggest weak spot at times has been coverage, but they've improved in the last month in particular with Pegues and Auburn's tandem being in check. This guy though is the Bentley to those team's Mercury Cougar. James can beat you on his own if he gets space. Bama must hold its lanes in check and punt away from him. I'd call it a moral victory if PJ's punt average is 35 and James' average return is less than 10. Cory Reamer is the biggest thing standing between PJ and disaster and how well he picks up the biggest threat will be key to keeping the defense out of bad situations. Florida wants to get some shanks/blocks early to get the score lopsided and have the Bama offense off its game plan.
Bottom line
It is Florida's speed vs. the power that Bama plays. Florida in the past has wilted against teams that came out hitting them and played disciplined (Auburn, Ole Miss, Miiiiichigan, LSU, UGA) and the offense is not a power option offense. It won't slug out series with others in the way the triple option style teams do (Tech), it can't take that kind of slow methodical beatdown approach and win. They are built for long drives, but it has to be up tempo. Their defense plays lights out and gives up big plays but creates well more than they give. They will try to rush Wilson out and try to get him rattled and throwing low percentage passes (like JPW's last 2 seasons were). They want Wilson to be the guy to beat them and not let the run game dictate the flow. They want to stay off the WRs and react to the ball and try to get in the passing lanes.
Alabama has to play that wear down drag out style and keep Florida's O on the bench because as good as their defense is, they can't keep them pinned all night, they will score. The best series of events that could happen is to have UF get the ball 1st, 3 and out, Bama take a 10 play 6-8 min drive get 7, and get another 3-5 play and out. Then follow that with a long drive with time off the clock and points if you can, but just keeping UF hemmed up on the sidelines will frustrate Meyer more than scoring will.
I think Bama's philosophy has more of a chance Saturday
Bama 24 Florida 17
December 1, 2008
The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly- Auburn
After a long, long, long period of waiting, we can finally tell our kids that's how it is supposed to be. I will say this, Auburn's defense is good, probably the best one the Tide saw all year, but the Auburn offense was the worst they saw all year too.
The Good.
Seniors showout
One that jumped off the page at me during the course of the game was Nikita Stover. Stover is one of those guys who seems to get up just a little bit more for Auburn. The difference in a 6-0 halftime lead and the 10-0 lead was Stover and his massive block on the outside. TV continues to have a hard time telling 8 and 9 apart from the booth and credited Jones, but it was Stover. He also beat his corner at least 3 times that I saw (once was the TD, second was underthrown to him, third Wilson went to Jones). Another big time game came from RJ. Johnson doesn't have to rack up the stat lines, but what I see that is vastly improved is how well he is seeing the play before the snap. The 2 senior tight ends had a nice day blocking as well. The staff is starting to use the McCall rub route as a bread and butter play each week. Have you noticed that McCall has more touches down the stretch than Walker? Bobby Greenwood got into the game from all ends on run defense, pass rush, and the blocked kick.
Defensive dominance
When Bama went up 10, the game was over. The truth is that Bama's 2nd string defense could have made for better television against Auburn, maybe, but the 1's on 1's was not even a contest. They held Auburn to less than 200 yards for the game and I'd say the 2nd half total yards was probably 50 or 75 yards at most. I thought all 11 starters, and the key reserves had their best game as a whole as well. The only blip on the radar was the last drive of the 1st half where they got flat footed because Burns started running and it caught them off guard a bit. After that, there wasn't much more heard from the Auburn offense other than groans of getting beat at the line and the sound of the ball hitting the soggy turf.
Run Bama Run
When the weather is horrible, bad, etc. you better have a running game worth a damn. Bama had one worth it. Coffee continues to really shine as the feature back on the team. When he was recruited, he was kinda the other guy behind Upchurch and Ford. Now, he's the guy that people will know for a while. Mark Ingram has probably the best footwork of any Bama running back since Alexander was on campus. His capacity to shift and keep body control allows him to gain an extra 5 to 10 yards at will. I think the offseason conditioning will do him wonders. Upchurch came in, made a great move to the outside, but you could tell he's not game ready yet. They need him as the change of pace between the 2 north south guys.
The best pass came at the last pass
To be honest, there wasn't exactly great quarterback play Saturday. Kodi Burns is horrible and needs about 5 years coaching before he'll be ready. Wilson has days where he's on target and days where the football looks like it is flying kites. Saturday was the second option. So, when McElroy put a rope down the right side to Maze, it was near perfect. I just wonder how many will scream Darrah, Darrah, Darrah or (fill in name here) over and over this winter when the clear heir to the QB job is McElroy? I thought the last 2 games Greg's played he's shown a better grasp of the offense and made some nice passes in traffic and under pressure. The big thing that will be different from him and Wilson will be his progression checks. Of course in mop up duty they always look good against a beaten team, but he does check down and finds the open guy where as Wilson looks for 1 maybe 2 and then tucks.
O Line play
Early on it looked iffy at times, but as the game wore on, they OL got on track and had its way with the defense. Credit the staff for finding something in film study that said Auburn would stack left and to run right. I thought this was Davis and Davis's best week and they seemed to know that they were the go to side and stepped it up. Marlon being on his last shot at Auburn seemed to have a sense of urgency on several pull plays and he cleared at least 2 lanes that I remember seeing. Drew did a good job on pass protection and continued to improve his run blocking as well.
Classy exit
I hope the recruits were around and paying attention to the game and not the tit willows when the starters got the curtain call in the 4th. It is probably one of the more memorable moments for me from the Iron Bowl in recent years.
The Bad.
Passing game
While he didn't have any turnovers, he had 2 that should have been. Wilson continues to get by on his play, but with Florida coming, he's got to step up and play like he did against Clemson, Tennessee, and Georgia. He underthrew several and overthrew the rest for a lucky 50% completion ratio. That's becoming an issue too. Go back and watch how well the offense flowed when he's hitting 60+% and how it chugs and clunks when he hits 50%. It is also why he's got 1 TD in the last 5 games and 2 ints.
Special Teams
Ugh. They were doing better, really, they were, but then it just goes back to its natural habitat of sucks. Shank punts, blocked extra point, and a few gaps on returns made for yet another typical game for the specialists. How an extra point gets blocked is beyond me, that's the easiest score in the game. There will be some stadium running for a few. Yes, Saban got all over Fitzgerald, but it isn't just him. PJ hasn't had a great year, he's had a good 2 or 3 games going into Auburn, so you can't expect miracles every week, just this coming week I hope....
The Ugly.
none
Random Thoughts
As I watched the 2 replays on CSS, it hit me that Auburn isn't far off from being back where they were. Their defense is good, it just wears out from playing so long. The only thing they need on defense is depth building. Offensively, man where to start? They don't have a fluid system right now. Period. Burns is starting to spite Tony Franklin who would go with Todd. Todd is a better QB hands down than Burns, he isn't Jason Campbell but he's better than the alternatives. What confuses me about Auburn's philosophy is their best player gets 8 touches tops. I still feel like Tubberville has packed his bags and went on cruise control to get out the door. However, I wouldn't go around yelling how bad Auburn is going to be for years to come, just yet, because with a QB and a gameplan on offense, they'll be in the hunt again.
Eventually, the story on Sly Croom will come out. My gut feeling at first was that they told him to clean the house out and Croom again said no and was ousted then. Second gut feeling says he quit to avoid the resume saying fired at MSU. Now, the debate will rage for years on these sites about Croom and how good or bad he is. Let's be fair and divorce our minds of the Alabama factor in it (at least the off field part) and look at what he inherited and where it ended up. He took a program on probation, with no in roads to recruiting talent, discipline problems galore, etal and while the W-L record doesn't show it, he developed a system of conditioning and discipline that paid dividends last year, but a lack of offensive talent and strategy failed him in the end. ESPN did have a good point, Black coaches are getting shitty jobs and being asked to make something out of them like Croom did in part at State and Turner Gil is doing at Buffalo. UT, Clemson, and others won't seriously look at a Black coach because they want status quo names like the ones being mentioned and hired. Personally, I think Croom would do better at a UCLA or Washington or Clemson than in the SEC right now.
Ding dong Fulmer is gone. I told my dad and brother Saturday that the perfect Saturday needed Kentucky to beat UT. Sadly, I'll have to wait. Fulmer thinks he can coach somewhere else and be successful, but I hate to tell him it won't happen if he doesn't rededicate himself to recruiting. I'd hire Croom over Fulmer because the stench is less. Hell, I'd hire Tubberville over him, Tubberville hasn't gone through the ups and downs nearly as much as Phil has. I would hire Fulmer over Mike Shula or Mike Price or Mike Dubose though, but that isn't saying anything.
Buy/Sell/Hold
The Big 12 is the best conference in the nation.
BUY. Earlier this year I said the SEC was. The SEC has tripped on its ego I'm afraid. The problem is that you have Bama and Florida, but then the distance between them and Georgia, the next best team, is pretty far. Truth is, the SEC is down this year. It is why the SEC champ is the only BCS contender this year, whereas last year UGA had an outside shot, because their schedules and victories aren't that great looking at the end as they were at the time they played. That is why Bama isn't getting as much love as OU and Texas are because Bama's big wins are against a 6 win Clemson, a 7 win LSU, a 5 win UT, and a 9 bad win UGA team. Same goes for Florida. FSU isn't as big as it used to be, they don't have a wow factor on their resume either, but the style points and the beat downs they've given get them there.
Bama did run up the score on Auburn
SELL. For me, there is no such thing as running up the score when you are playing rivals or conference foes. The only time such occurs is against the Sister Mary of the Blind, Deaf, Mutilated, Impotent, and Homosexually challenged games. You line up and play 1st strings and 2nd strings the full 60 minutes when you play conference games. It isn't your job to stop yourself short, that's the opponent's job.
Those who said Paul Johnson couldn't coach in the SEC should line up for crow.
BUY. Is it stylish or going to get a Julio Jones or top end QB? No. Is it going to wear out teams, score points, and win games? Yes. When Tech beat MSU like a drum, we all kinda dismissed it as State. When they unloaded 200 yards rushing in the 3rd quarter alone, damn that's some yards gained, it was worth noting. Johnson is a good coach and is a lot like Bobby Johnson, he can take talent overlooked by the big brothers and make winners out of them. Could he win a NC or SECC? Dunno, he'd be 2nd in the East right now though.
The Big 12 tiebreaker is flawed and should be scrapped.
BUY. How on earth do you say a team that got beaten thoroughly goes ahead of the team that thumped them? I like the SEC's system better that says if 2 teams are within 3 spots of each other it reverts back to H2H. That would have put Texas, the rightful contender, in the B12C again. Instead, we now have the issue of who deserves to play the SEC champ in January? OU or Texas? What happens if Missouri finds a miracle, and it seems to happen a lot in the 12 championship games (Tx beat NU in the 1st, aTm upset KSU, CU beat Tx), who goes then? Texas, the jilted champion? USC, the quiet army from the west? The loser of the SECC? Seriously, what happens if say Bama wins on a last second field goal or TD and wins by 1? Is Florida not worthy in that case, or not as worthy as Tx or USC? That is why I hate the BCS.
LSU is on the way down with Auburn.
HOLD. Here's the history lesson for all to remember: where was Alabama and Florida this time last year? It can amaze me that folks think offseasons only work for their team and not others. I'd hold judgement on LSU and others until we see what they are playing with in August. I do think both might be in trouble if they don't find some depth on defense though.
Stay tuned around Wednesday or Thursday, I'll have a Florida/Bama breakdown.
The Good.
Seniors showout
One that jumped off the page at me during the course of the game was Nikita Stover. Stover is one of those guys who seems to get up just a little bit more for Auburn. The difference in a 6-0 halftime lead and the 10-0 lead was Stover and his massive block on the outside. TV continues to have a hard time telling 8 and 9 apart from the booth and credited Jones, but it was Stover. He also beat his corner at least 3 times that I saw (once was the TD, second was underthrown to him, third Wilson went to Jones). Another big time game came from RJ. Johnson doesn't have to rack up the stat lines, but what I see that is vastly improved is how well he is seeing the play before the snap. The 2 senior tight ends had a nice day blocking as well. The staff is starting to use the McCall rub route as a bread and butter play each week. Have you noticed that McCall has more touches down the stretch than Walker? Bobby Greenwood got into the game from all ends on run defense, pass rush, and the blocked kick.
Defensive dominance
When Bama went up 10, the game was over. The truth is that Bama's 2nd string defense could have made for better television against Auburn, maybe, but the 1's on 1's was not even a contest. They held Auburn to less than 200 yards for the game and I'd say the 2nd half total yards was probably 50 or 75 yards at most. I thought all 11 starters, and the key reserves had their best game as a whole as well. The only blip on the radar was the last drive of the 1st half where they got flat footed because Burns started running and it caught them off guard a bit. After that, there wasn't much more heard from the Auburn offense other than groans of getting beat at the line and the sound of the ball hitting the soggy turf.
Run Bama Run
When the weather is horrible, bad, etc. you better have a running game worth a damn. Bama had one worth it. Coffee continues to really shine as the feature back on the team. When he was recruited, he was kinda the other guy behind Upchurch and Ford. Now, he's the guy that people will know for a while. Mark Ingram has probably the best footwork of any Bama running back since Alexander was on campus. His capacity to shift and keep body control allows him to gain an extra 5 to 10 yards at will. I think the offseason conditioning will do him wonders. Upchurch came in, made a great move to the outside, but you could tell he's not game ready yet. They need him as the change of pace between the 2 north south guys.
The best pass came at the last pass
To be honest, there wasn't exactly great quarterback play Saturday. Kodi Burns is horrible and needs about 5 years coaching before he'll be ready. Wilson has days where he's on target and days where the football looks like it is flying kites. Saturday was the second option. So, when McElroy put a rope down the right side to Maze, it was near perfect. I just wonder how many will scream Darrah, Darrah, Darrah or (fill in name here) over and over this winter when the clear heir to the QB job is McElroy? I thought the last 2 games Greg's played he's shown a better grasp of the offense and made some nice passes in traffic and under pressure. The big thing that will be different from him and Wilson will be his progression checks. Of course in mop up duty they always look good against a beaten team, but he does check down and finds the open guy where as Wilson looks for 1 maybe 2 and then tucks.
O Line play
Early on it looked iffy at times, but as the game wore on, they OL got on track and had its way with the defense. Credit the staff for finding something in film study that said Auburn would stack left and to run right. I thought this was Davis and Davis's best week and they seemed to know that they were the go to side and stepped it up. Marlon being on his last shot at Auburn seemed to have a sense of urgency on several pull plays and he cleared at least 2 lanes that I remember seeing. Drew did a good job on pass protection and continued to improve his run blocking as well.
Classy exit
I hope the recruits were around and paying attention to the game and not the tit willows when the starters got the curtain call in the 4th. It is probably one of the more memorable moments for me from the Iron Bowl in recent years.
The Bad.
Passing game
While he didn't have any turnovers, he had 2 that should have been. Wilson continues to get by on his play, but with Florida coming, he's got to step up and play like he did against Clemson, Tennessee, and Georgia. He underthrew several and overthrew the rest for a lucky 50% completion ratio. That's becoming an issue too. Go back and watch how well the offense flowed when he's hitting 60+% and how it chugs and clunks when he hits 50%. It is also why he's got 1 TD in the last 5 games and 2 ints.
Special Teams
Ugh. They were doing better, really, they were, but then it just goes back to its natural habitat of sucks. Shank punts, blocked extra point, and a few gaps on returns made for yet another typical game for the specialists. How an extra point gets blocked is beyond me, that's the easiest score in the game. There will be some stadium running for a few. Yes, Saban got all over Fitzgerald, but it isn't just him. PJ hasn't had a great year, he's had a good 2 or 3 games going into Auburn, so you can't expect miracles every week, just this coming week I hope....
The Ugly.
none
Random Thoughts
As I watched the 2 replays on CSS, it hit me that Auburn isn't far off from being back where they were. Their defense is good, it just wears out from playing so long. The only thing they need on defense is depth building. Offensively, man where to start? They don't have a fluid system right now. Period. Burns is starting to spite Tony Franklin who would go with Todd. Todd is a better QB hands down than Burns, he isn't Jason Campbell but he's better than the alternatives. What confuses me about Auburn's philosophy is their best player gets 8 touches tops. I still feel like Tubberville has packed his bags and went on cruise control to get out the door. However, I wouldn't go around yelling how bad Auburn is going to be for years to come, just yet, because with a QB and a gameplan on offense, they'll be in the hunt again.
Eventually, the story on Sly Croom will come out. My gut feeling at first was that they told him to clean the house out and Croom again said no and was ousted then. Second gut feeling says he quit to avoid the resume saying fired at MSU. Now, the debate will rage for years on these sites about Croom and how good or bad he is. Let's be fair and divorce our minds of the Alabama factor in it (at least the off field part) and look at what he inherited and where it ended up. He took a program on probation, with no in roads to recruiting talent, discipline problems galore, etal and while the W-L record doesn't show it, he developed a system of conditioning and discipline that paid dividends last year, but a lack of offensive talent and strategy failed him in the end. ESPN did have a good point, Black coaches are getting shitty jobs and being asked to make something out of them like Croom did in part at State and Turner Gil is doing at Buffalo. UT, Clemson, and others won't seriously look at a Black coach because they want status quo names like the ones being mentioned and hired. Personally, I think Croom would do better at a UCLA or Washington or Clemson than in the SEC right now.
Ding dong Fulmer is gone. I told my dad and brother Saturday that the perfect Saturday needed Kentucky to beat UT. Sadly, I'll have to wait. Fulmer thinks he can coach somewhere else and be successful, but I hate to tell him it won't happen if he doesn't rededicate himself to recruiting. I'd hire Croom over Fulmer because the stench is less. Hell, I'd hire Tubberville over him, Tubberville hasn't gone through the ups and downs nearly as much as Phil has. I would hire Fulmer over Mike Shula or Mike Price or Mike Dubose though, but that isn't saying anything.
Buy/Sell/Hold
The Big 12 is the best conference in the nation.
BUY. Earlier this year I said the SEC was. The SEC has tripped on its ego I'm afraid. The problem is that you have Bama and Florida, but then the distance between them and Georgia, the next best team, is pretty far. Truth is, the SEC is down this year. It is why the SEC champ is the only BCS contender this year, whereas last year UGA had an outside shot, because their schedules and victories aren't that great looking at the end as they were at the time they played. That is why Bama isn't getting as much love as OU and Texas are because Bama's big wins are against a 6 win Clemson, a 7 win LSU, a 5 win UT, and a 9 bad win UGA team. Same goes for Florida. FSU isn't as big as it used to be, they don't have a wow factor on their resume either, but the style points and the beat downs they've given get them there.
Bama did run up the score on Auburn
SELL. For me, there is no such thing as running up the score when you are playing rivals or conference foes. The only time such occurs is against the Sister Mary of the Blind, Deaf, Mutilated, Impotent, and Homosexually challenged games. You line up and play 1st strings and 2nd strings the full 60 minutes when you play conference games. It isn't your job to stop yourself short, that's the opponent's job.
Those who said Paul Johnson couldn't coach in the SEC should line up for crow.
BUY. Is it stylish or going to get a Julio Jones or top end QB? No. Is it going to wear out teams, score points, and win games? Yes. When Tech beat MSU like a drum, we all kinda dismissed it as State. When they unloaded 200 yards rushing in the 3rd quarter alone, damn that's some yards gained, it was worth noting. Johnson is a good coach and is a lot like Bobby Johnson, he can take talent overlooked by the big brothers and make winners out of them. Could he win a NC or SECC? Dunno, he'd be 2nd in the East right now though.
The Big 12 tiebreaker is flawed and should be scrapped.
BUY. How on earth do you say a team that got beaten thoroughly goes ahead of the team that thumped them? I like the SEC's system better that says if 2 teams are within 3 spots of each other it reverts back to H2H. That would have put Texas, the rightful contender, in the B12C again. Instead, we now have the issue of who deserves to play the SEC champ in January? OU or Texas? What happens if Missouri finds a miracle, and it seems to happen a lot in the 12 championship games (Tx beat NU in the 1st, aTm upset KSU, CU beat Tx), who goes then? Texas, the jilted champion? USC, the quiet army from the west? The loser of the SECC? Seriously, what happens if say Bama wins on a last second field goal or TD and wins by 1? Is Florida not worthy in that case, or not as worthy as Tx or USC? That is why I hate the BCS.
LSU is on the way down with Auburn.
HOLD. Here's the history lesson for all to remember: where was Alabama and Florida this time last year? It can amaze me that folks think offseasons only work for their team and not others. I'd hold judgement on LSU and others until we see what they are playing with in August. I do think both might be in trouble if they don't find some depth on defense though.
Stay tuned around Wednesday or Thursday, I'll have a Florida/Bama breakdown.
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