Ok, it is Florida time and everyone wants to act like they understand the Meyer offensive strategy. It isn't just their offense, the real catalyst for the team is their defense, just like Alabama. So, here's the drill....
Alabama's offense vs. Florida's defense
Florida runs a 4-3 defense that relies on strength in the middle and speed to the outside. Their speed almost makes the linebackers like 3 safeties when they are in base formations. Brandon Spikes is the name of the group and we all remember him from recruiting battles long since lost. Spikes is a big guy, and reminds me a lot of Rudd or a slightly less aggressive Derrick Thomas. Jones, Hicks and Doe remind me a lot of Shula type linebackers, smaller, faster, more cover than tackle guys. That works into what Strong is doing at Florida because their defense creates turnovers and the offense puts the points up off those turnovers, so the linebackers play more coverage than attack because teams are forced to go 1 dimensional early and often. Stamper plays a lot, and has started some at OLB, he is Spikes main backup as well.
Don't let the linebackers smokescreen how good their front 4 has been. Carlos Dunlap is a physical tackle/end that is more of a pass rusher than run stopper. He's 290 and is real good with his hands. He swats linemen from engaging him and gets inside the line a great deal. When I was watching the FSU game, he had 2-3 sacks and was beating his side off the end and inside, so he isn't a one trick pony. Jermaine Cunningham plays the other end, and is a pure rush end. he's a bit small at 250, so you'd almost say when he's playing they are running a 3-4 with him up on the line. Terron Sanders is their top interior lineman, but he's not a dominator like Cody (who is) nor is he extremely disruptive. He takes up gaps and clogs which he is good at. He doesn't look like he's a weight room kinda guy though. Marsh plays opposite of him, but is out still hurt but playing. His backup is Antwine and he's big but stays beat up a lot. He has conditioning needs that if he addressed them, he'd stay off the trainers table more, he's out and so is the other tackle Patchan. Patchan is a gritty guy and if he were playing, Bama would not have as much of an advantage as they will with him out. The Gators run a lot of linemen out there, before the season they wanted to run 10 if able, but with the injuries mounting, I'd say the 4 will go most of the night.
The Gator secondary if anything is young and with time and battle scars will be a great group in time. They got picked on by Ole Miss in their lone loss of the year and over pursue at times. Florida fans will probably point to Black as their best, but in my opinion, Major Wright is the centerpiece. The times I've watched Florida, as Wright goes, so does the defense.
So, how to beat them? Well, if you try to go outside to outside with them, you'll lose. You have to establish up the gut running. Bama does that well most of the time. Dunlap is going to give the OL trouble, but I think they will use Walker/McCall as backup support on him and continue running north and south. When you have gotten the safeties and linebackers up in the box, the play action time comes in. Travis McCall and Nick Walker could have big nights because the speed that Florida has will limit the route time that Bama can use. Florida plays little to 0 zone coverage in their packages, they do go zone with their safeties on 3rd down, but the corners play bump man or man release most games. There will be 1 on 1 opportunities for Jones and Stover to establish in space on curls, outs, slants, etc. I don't see the offense excelling if they try to burn them deep because they lack the players to do that kind of offense, but they can wear and smash mouth Florida down the field with balanced run/pass play calling. I would expect to see the Tide use some counter plays as well and pull Marlon Davis and Mike Johnson off the line and follow with the TE as lead blockers for Coffee and Ingram.
Bama's OL is going to have some size and weight advantages, but the key will be engaging the defense before it engages them. Smith and Davis have struggled with speed rushers because they lack the footwork to get around on them. The TE's may have to support more and stay out of routes at time until the play action and run game backs them off. This is not going to be a game where Bama gets 200 yards rushing, I don't think, because this defense swarms in the box and keeps backs from hitting the 2nd and 3rd levels. Don't look for trick plays either. The speed and heady play these guys use would turn a trick play into a major momentum shift with an INT or fumble. I think the key is to confuse the secondary with some different looks and throwing on running situations and running on throwing situations (Bama hasn't been exactly tricky in the play calling but haven't had to because they dominate up front).
Bama wins this battle if they play smart, physical, and take advantage of the Jones v. Haden/Jenkins matchup. Florida wins if they force Wilson to beat them down field and do what they've done all year, create turnovers.
Florida's Offense v. Bama's Defense
Everyone knows Tim Tebow and what he does. His athleticism and physical nature forces teams to play back a bit. That's the main mistake teams make with Florida. You can't out zone them or contain them all day. He's too smart and his running ability is only magnified when you do it. The thing that teams continuously do is try to confuse him, but this offense has so many options and check downs that you just can't beat them with coverage, it takes pressure.
What Florida wants to do with the ball is get match ups. Tebow on a small linebacker, Harvin on a linebacker, Moody on a corner, etc. are all match ups in their favor 9 out of 10 times. They will also run a lot of what I call misdirection plays (counters, direct snaps to the back, option counters) to get the defense flat footed in space and use their speed to punish them for it. It isn't a simple offense from a read perspective. They will run and throw from any formation and unit grouping.
Many fans think because they score 50 points at will, they are a fast offense that keeps their defense on the field. That's farthest from reality. They do score fast on short field drives from turnovers, but they do like to move the field and wear teams out with the option. Tebow will not throw it 50 times nor will he run it 50. Folks have this conception of him, but Florida is performing at its best when he throws about 15-20 times and runs about 7-15 times. The 2 games he passed a lot, Miami and Ole Miss, were the worst games they had. The bulk of their passing game is short and controlled. Consider it like Bama's with more focus on 1 on 1 and less route precision.
Don't get hung up on Tebow-mania just yet, because he's got the best supporting cast in the SEC if not America. He has Percy Harvin (College's fastest player worth a damn), Rainey, Demps, the 2 Moores, and Hernandez the H-Back/TE (McCall 10 pounds lighter and with better hands). Harvin is very important to this offense. If he is out, or reduced to either a RB or WR role, the mystery and trickery is gone. That's what he does for the offense is that he can come out of the backfield and draw a match up favorable, go in motion at WR and take an option handoff/reverse, take direct snaps, throw, be the decoy and open up the flat to Hernandez, and so on. Their run plays are all read/option plays where there are 2 to 4 different scenarios that Tebow and the running backs/WR have in each play called where it could go from draw to sweep to keeper to keeper pitch, etc.
Florida relies on more zone blocking schemes because they use the speed backs to hit the gaps fast and attack the defenses. Don't let the term fool you. It is more like the old Michigan zone blocking and not that piss poor one Bob had. Their guys are all over 300 all 6-5+ and get in the zone fast. Trautwein is an NFL prospect who anchors the end and the Pouncey twins hold the interior for the offense.
On defense, it is all about attacking and discipline. Bama has done that all year on defense but has not faced an offense this diverse, balanced, and gifted. I would say that Bama goes nickel the majority of the night to get more speed on the field and that formation is where they get their best 11 on the field by rotating Sharrief, Ma. Johnson, Woodall, Anders, Chapman, and others in and out. Cory Reamer probably won't see much time on the field unless Florida completely changes its identity for this one. Another thing they may have to go to is the "quarters" formation where they use 3 down (Greenwood/Cody or Chapman/Deaderick) 1-2 backs (McClain/Hightower) and 6-7 DBs (Arenas/Johnson/Jackson/Sharrief/Woodall/Jackson/Rogers or King or Barron). I think they will try to stay in the nickel and press their luck there because the other will expose the run more. The Quarter will use space and speed to keep everything in check, and keep the WR routes congested, but it is more of a prevent type of defense.
The keys for Bama are simple, Cody and the down linemen must close the gaps in the middle and force things to the outside. From that point, the LBs and the S's and Arenas have to be on top of the play fast and tackle soundly. They cannot let the flat get abandoned. A backer or safety has to stay at home and cover the middle of the field because that is where Tebow's home is both running and passing. I wouldn't spy Tebow or Harvin because there isn't one person that ideally can do that with either due to their unique size (TT) and speed (PH) that they possess. Instead, if Bama moves sideline to sideline as their linebackers and star (Arenas) do most nights, they should keep things in play. Saban's philosophy is not to man up directly and have McClain on a tailback exclusively like most 4-3 man coverages require. Instead, he asks the linebackers to read the play and attack from whatever position they are at. I think that plays big into the storyline of the night too. If Bama can mask the blitz or get good penetration from the front 5-7 (depending on formation) they can into Tebow's head some and force him to become uncomfortable.
Ole Miss did that in part, they used their big nose tackle to disrupt the middle and their linebackers and DBs covered the outside well enough that it kept Tebow bottled up. Tebow is much less effective when he's asked to stay at home and not warm up to the flow of the game with his legs. Again, don't get fooled into thinking you beat him by making him just throw, you must still force his throws early or mask the coverage and make him read zone and go man or read man and go zone blitz on top of bottling him.
The biggest "tip" that the offense makes is in its pre-snap motion. When Meyer was at Utah, I could call the play from home based on the motion that occurred as being a run or option or pass based on how the H Back and WR/RB (Harvin) moved pre-snap. When the back goes from slot to back in motion, it is option left a high percentage of the time. When the back goes to slot or isolation it is QB draw or play fake pass. When there is no motion, it is pass. When they go "full house" and have two backs stacked left or right, that is the Tebow keeper, but you have to man cover the TE in short and goal situations.
Special Teams
Florida isn't fancy on special teams, they just execute with Brandon James. Bama's biggest weak spot at times has been coverage, but they've improved in the last month in particular with Pegues and Auburn's tandem being in check. This guy though is the Bentley to those team's Mercury Cougar. James can beat you on his own if he gets space. Bama must hold its lanes in check and punt away from him. I'd call it a moral victory if PJ's punt average is 35 and James' average return is less than 10. Cory Reamer is the biggest thing standing between PJ and disaster and how well he picks up the biggest threat will be key to keeping the defense out of bad situations. Florida wants to get some shanks/blocks early to get the score lopsided and have the Bama offense off its game plan.
Bottom line
It is Florida's speed vs. the power that Bama plays. Florida in the past has wilted against teams that came out hitting them and played disciplined (Auburn, Ole Miss, Miiiiichigan, LSU, UGA) and the offense is not a power option offense. It won't slug out series with others in the way the triple option style teams do (Tech), it can't take that kind of slow methodical beatdown approach and win. They are built for long drives, but it has to be up tempo. Their defense plays lights out and gives up big plays but creates well more than they give. They will try to rush Wilson out and try to get him rattled and throwing low percentage passes (like JPW's last 2 seasons were). They want Wilson to be the guy to beat them and not let the run game dictate the flow. They want to stay off the WRs and react to the ball and try to get in the passing lanes.
Alabama has to play that wear down drag out style and keep Florida's O on the bench because as good as their defense is, they can't keep them pinned all night, they will score. The best series of events that could happen is to have UF get the ball 1st, 3 and out, Bama take a 10 play 6-8 min drive get 7, and get another 3-5 play and out. Then follow that with a long drive with time off the clock and points if you can, but just keeping UF hemmed up on the sidelines will frustrate Meyer more than scoring will.
I think Bama's philosophy has more of a chance Saturday
Bama 24 Florida 17
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