November 25, 2012

The Good...The Bad...& The Ugly- Auburn

So I took last week off because I thought Bama played a barely better than a top end high school team....I was wrong.  Auburn was about that Saturday.  The fall from grace for Chizik was swift and not all that merciful, but not a surprise.  As to the game, the best news Bama got was that they were able to wind it up early and send the starters to the ballcaps fast. 

OFFENSE

The Good...

Dominating up front

Auburn's defense never got its legs under it all year.  Bama made sure that the last act was no different than the other acts.  Auburn's front 4 and front 7 were constantly on their back heel and rarely moved AJ from the pocket.  The running game got off to a quick start as well.  Lacy had gaps to run through that most of us 30 somethings could hit.  The Offensive Line basically made the game end by the end of the first quarter because they had established the tone and bit Auburn's neck and refused to let go. 

Lacy on a mission

Lacy is getting healthy and gaining confidence at the right time.  His best game of the year was Missouri, but Auburn was a close second.  In both, he was hitting the hole fast and refused to go down on the first contact.  For Bama to win against UGA, they will need Lacy to come out with the same fire and determination. 

Cooper the Julioian Effort

I could get into a deep discussion on the Cooper vs. Jones- the Freshman Resumes- but there is no doubt that he is in that class of player.  It is also not hard to see why the staff was so excited to get him and invite him early.  He is a game changing player and will only get better if he stays healthy.  Auburn's tackling was about like watching my son's 5&6 year old team tackle, but to slip 3 tackles to the endzone for a WR is up there with a running back breaking 4 or 5 men.  He is the favorite target for AJ McCarron and rightfully so.  He also is an All SEC/Freshman All American. 

The Bad...

Bell's injury

You never want your players to get hurt in a game, and you really don't want to see it when your team is about to go to the "playoffs".  While I don't see his injury as a huge loss, it is still another slot on the depth chart that they cannot fill at this point.  The injury does one of two things.  It will either reduce the rotation and go with Norwood, Christian Jones, and Cooper more or it will require Shinn and Black to play more and step up.  For pure speculative purposes, I would throw out the concept of Blake Sims or Kenyon Drake as a 5th WR option.  Both would open the field up in a variety of ways.  In all seriousness, I look for them to lean on the 3 experienced WRs more against UGA because they will have to use Williams more to contain Jones off the edge and use Lacy/Yeldon as safety valves or additional pass blockers. 

The Ugly...

Auburn's offensive game plan, and Offense as a whole

Ok so it isn't Alabama....but there wasn't hardly a single poor play the whole game and Auburn had a lot to do with that. 

DEFENSE

The Good...

The Depth Chart Unloaded

The best news from the Auburn game outside of the lopsided score was that even the 2nd string defense came out and strangled Auburn's offense.  Pagan and others were able to showcase their skills on national television for a longer period of time.  That is a very good thing because now UGA and Notre Dame have to scout for that. 

25%, 33%, and 163...

What are those numbers?  Auburn's 3rd down conversion rate, completion rate, and total yards.  Alabama had more yards by the end of the first quarter. 

The 4th shutout of the year

It was obvious that once the rout was on, the stats and significance of the attainment was key.  I know some will bark about that, but Saban does play for stat padding.  It is why Lacy was running in the 3rd quarter.  They wanted the 4th shutout, it was a mark only obtained last by the 79 defense that is held in a pretty high regard.  So when they were playing for the shutout, they knew what it meant and why they wanted it. 

The Bad...

Letting Auburn past midfield twice....

Bama still has an issue with crossing routes and slant patterns.  Auburn even exposed it to a small scale.  For Bama to win in the must win games now, they have got to find a way to cut down some of the bleeding from crossing patterns.  Moving Geno Smith to Star is a start.  I also won't be surprised to see them use Mosely more in coverage to pick up the rub.  If not him, Lester perhaps will be that player.  Regardless, there has to be a player to recognize the play and react to it. 

The Ugly...

Auburn's tackling prowess...

They just flat out stunk at it.  I have never seen an SEC team that poor at tackling and that includes 30 years of seeing Vandy and the Mississippi's. 

RANDOM THOUGHTS...

The End of the Chizik Era

While the Aubsession will be high during the period from the Sunday after the SEC Championship to New Year's, the main focus for any fan should be what happened at Auburn and how to avoid it. 

Some will say karma, some will say cheating and all sort of tin foil hat material, but the honest answer is that Auburn's fate was sealed when they hired Chizik.  He wasn't a winner before and he wasn't a winner there.  The main thing to realize is that good players can make an average or bad coach look good.  See Mike Shula, Mike DuBose, Jeff Tedford and a host of others that have had 1 "good" year and then failed to follow up.  Chizik had the perfect storm in 2010.  Veteran players that were talented, and caught lightning in a bottle with Cam Newton.  Once those seniors and Cam were gone, the truth about Jim...err...Gene was there.  He can't coach a lick. 

Where Auburn goes from here is pure fodder and I could care less, but they will have to have a load of patience from the start because the foundation is sand right now.  They have nothing at Quarterback, nothing in the secondary, and very little to work with beyond that.  Granted, a good coach can make those parts work and get 6 wins in his first year, but that task is something that even James Franklin- a guy folks better start respecting- won't take on right now. 

Jawga Pride

Here's the bottom line with Georgia.  Their schedule has not prepared them for the two tests ahead.  Whereas Notre Dame has played a man's schedule and been through a schedule that has them championship tested, Georgia has had 2 games worth consideration- South Carolina and Florida.  One game they were embarrassed for four quarters and the other they were blessed with 6 turnovers.  This game is not the game they really want to see.  Georgia over the years has not been at their best when a team comes at them and punches back.  They are better suited when they control the physical nature of the game.  If Bama comes out and can get their front 4 and a corner blitz to work, they will be able to break Georgia's spirit early.  Bama's offense will not be stunned by much of what Georgia throws out there.  They can contain Jones and if they do that, the rest is pretty much average.  Remember, Georgia Tech gained over 300 yards on them, and Georgia Southern wasn't far behind that.  Bama just has to control the time of possession and control the turnovers.  That is where Florida failed.  Bama should live off the South Carolina game plan on both sides of the ball really, they did everything perfectly in regards to how to play them. 

November 12, 2012

Random Thoughts....

Ok, I have tried to do a Good, Bad and Ugly on the Texas A&M debacle, but it is pretty difficult to do in a way that is constructive.  Besides that, the good things I could find were narrow and few compared to the vast problems exposed for 2 weeks now.  So with that, I try to construct my thoughts....

It is time to abandon the Sunseri Cornerback experiment now. 

I have said this a few times now, it isn't his fault.  They are trying to make him do something he cannot do.  In summer/spring drills, he had an advantage because he was going against what are now 2nd string guys and he looked good.  However, it has been clear most of the year that he and Perry were very weak links in the secondary.  Sunseri's experience is what you have seen this year.  He's never played this position and it shows as he doesn't know how to disrupt a route.  Watch the game or any game, his first move is to backpeddle and give up even more ground because he knows he's not fast enough.  That isn't his fault, to be honest, nobody should have asked him to play the Star CB role.  It is a glaring sore to Saban's high recruiting standard that they do not have 3 corners he likes.  That and they can't recruit a pass rusher to save their souls.  I digress....

It isn't just him, Millner and Belue got abused a lot too.  The thing that I see isn't that they are playing any better or worse, they are just not getting away with the gambles they did early on.  That is to be expected as any WR/QB should improve over time.  What has to happen is they have to understand they cannot gamble all the time and win.  They are going to have to actually play the WR and beat him and not hope to beat the route or the ball.  What is clear is that this (number 4) was true whether I liked it or not. 

On the other side, I was happy to see Fulton play the game of his life against a very tough assignment.  He gave up 6 inches and about 30 pounds, so picture Julio vs. Marquis Johnson and how well that would be in a short range matchup.  Size wins.  However, they beat him twice, but after that he really figured it out and just let his game hang out.  Fulton Island, occupation 1 was on display and really he was about the only thing between them and a full on asswhooping.  It will be interesting to see if they make the move and slide Millner over to Star, his natural role. 

I figured out why they don't like Fulton, he plays it the way most teams do and backpedals and face guards.  Now part of that may have been the size issue and looking for the ball would have gotten him out of position to get a hand in.  Saban doesn't teach that and Fulton is weaker in zone than the others because he mentally likes to press and jam and be on the island.  It wouldn't surprise me if he doesn't get on a roster somewhere in the NFL. 

If Bama is going to play off the WR, they need to dial up more than 3 or 4 rushers. 

Bama is woefully short on pass rushing players.  I thought they would miss Gentry more, but they miss all of them pretty bad because outside of Mosley, they don't have a great rush threat.  They can't rush him a lot because they need him to shadow or cover backs/TEs.  Square and Williams are good against the run, but they are hit and miss in the passing game.  Pagan looks good but they keep him out too much or put him inside for some reason.  Devall may develop into that guy but he has to be on the field to develop.  One thing is clear, Hubbard is not their long term answer at this point.  His motor doesn't run fast enough for it, arm brace or not. 

aTm absolutely outcoached Bama

There was a replay that CBS showed that was just embarrassing at any level of football.  They were so discombobulated that they could not figure out who needed to be in or out and were telling folks to go out there and pulling them back and then sending them on.  It was a microcosm of the whole game.  They never had a plan B.  That falls on Saban ultimately.  Their gameplan was that they would get the jump on Texas A&M and their defense would confuse the QB.  One problem, they couldn't pressure nor could they contain him. 

I thought they had him rattled in the 1st half when they started shifting and adjusting in presnap situations.  He didn't like that the safety slid up then when he was ready to call for the snap, the safety wasn't there.  Same for the linebackers, he in his pre snap reads saw them as blitzing/cover and then when he was ready to call it, he saw the other.  They made adjustments to that in the 2nd half, but Bama quit doing it as they seemed gassed and beaten.  It was probably the first time in a long time that a team out-conditioned Alabama.  A&M knew if they played quick, they could fluster Saban.  It worked like a charm. 

Saban keeps trying to make subs and do all this stuff that works if you go to the huddle, but when they play hurry up, you gotta just keep them on the field because they aren't changing their package, formation maybe, but the players will be the same 11.  If you think that the other teams playing Bama this year and next didn't see that happen, you are smoking pot.  UGA will install it and roll it for the SECC game.  Easily.  Credit Kliff Kingsbury for a great plan and having his guys believe they could execute it.  They did all night and as a result, Bama is now outside looking in at the BCS championship for the time being. 

The defense wasn't the only goat....oooooh no......Nussmeier's thought process is going to have to understand this isn't the PAC whatever and Saban needs to choke down the playbook to what will work.  It was obvious that they could run on Texas A&M, all day.  Even when they slid the safeties up, they were getting forward progress.  I in my moment of venting have said that Nuss would be likely told to find greener pastures like Major was, and that may be, but in the event that they keep him on, he's got to grow up.  It was obvious with some of the really odd calls they had that he's inexperienced at calling plays.  Remember, Sarkesian calls the plays at Washington.  This was his first full coordination job and it was on display again Saturday as they continued to kill their own momentum with play calling and player usage. 

Folks, to me, Yeldon's fumble wasn't an error as much as it was him trying to make a play.  He is trying to make a play because they are starving him, just like they starve Lacy for carries.  10 and 15 carries a week between the two is low.  Extremely low.  To me, the play calling Saturday displayed a total lack of confidence in the Offensive Line and Running Backs.  That bothers me....a lot.  You have 2 All SEC caliber guys in Yeldon and Lacy, you have supposedly the best line in D1 with 2 All American candidates, maybe 3, and you pass on 4 downs......This isn't the Pac whatever guys, it doesn't work that way when the defenders all run a 4.4-4.6 and know how to play defense. 

Lost in the sadness, Bama can punt when they have to 6 times a game....

Whatelse can you say, Bama plays well, they punt poor, they play like dung, they kill it.

November 4, 2012

The Good....The Bad....& The Ugly....LSU

Ok, let's start with the disclaimer.  I have been going around the Internets and there are some who are hyping up Bama's win over LSU as the greatest ever and AJ is the best QB ever and so on and so on.  If you are that person....click back now because you won't like a full analysis of the game.  Don't email me with complaints or post here there or yonder saying what a bastard I am for pointing out things that you don't like. 

As to the game, this game was needed because the players needed to see that they were mortal, but in other ways they didn't need the nation seeing Alabama bleed like a mortal.  Part of the Process has been that folks buy into the hype and the storyline that comes with it.  That is gone now because Oregon, K State and Notre Dame all have seen that you can beat Alabama.  The question is can they match what LSU did.  Of the three, KSU is probably the closest to that type of team.  Oregon is a finesse team and has no power game on either side of the ball.  Notre Dame has a mediocre offense but a strong and slow defense.  Snyder's greatest coaching accomplishment, and folks he is one of the greats by rehabbing KSU not once but twice, has them pounding away. 

With that said Saturday night had a lot of everything for me to cover.....

OFFENSE

The Good...

Bama's last act was its best act

What do the numbers 6,5,1,3 and 34 have in common?  They are the total yards in all drives in the 2nd half before Bama got one last shot at a win.  Alabama didn't play well all night, but when they had to, they came together and the nation saw Norwood step up and be a clutch player.  He sold out on a few balls that most wouldn't have to keep the drive alive.  The nation saw AJ McCarron suck it up after a Heisman losing performance for 58 and a half minutes and deliver a Daniel Moore worthy moment.  The nation saw TJ Yeldon prove yet again that he is that special and it wasn't just the screen.  He threw 2 or 3 key blocks in the drive to give AJ the chance to step up and fire.  Then when called upon, he chucked the blitzer, set up, and then broke the ankles of a defender to get into the end zone.  I have read a lot of comparisons, but it reminded me of 09 Auburn but it really reminded me of 96 Auburn.  That game had the screen and Bama had slopped through in the midst of Gene Stallings farewell. 

Running game

Later on, you are gonna read a lot about play calling.  However, when they did dedicate to the run, they did very well and in the 2nd half, the only progress the team had was in the running game until the last drive.  It was clear early that Lacy and Yeldon both wanted this game.  This was the best front 7 they were going to see and the challenge was there.  The play calling shorted them on the chance to really display their talents, but they rolled up 150 yards between the two and averaged nearly 7 per carry.  They were not the reason the offense sputtered.  They really were the 2 guys that kept Bama in the game throughout.  Every time they needed a play it came from Lacy and Yeldon. 

DJ Fluker finally found his religion

No it isn't a religious reference.  It is a saying, but in the end he finally had his game and had it against a top end defensive end.  He had been weak on the inside rush all year, but he was up to the task to take on Mingo and Montgomery and beat them inside and outside. 

Kevin Norwood loves Corndogs

His best two games of his career are against LSU and what is sad is he didn't score against them either time.  The effort he gave Saturday is one to show your kids on how you sell out for the game. 

The Bad...

Play calling flat out sucked

Now some will bark and say the last drive this and that.  Football is 60 minutes and 58 of it was just rough.  The offensive philosophy was to pass to set the run up.  In hind sight, Bama probably needed to do the opposite.  LSU was banking on the Tide throwing early and confused AJ most of the night.  Bama looked its best against LSU when they ran the ball.  Their first score- 6 of 11 plays were runs.  Their second score started with a run and a dump pass to Lacy.  In between the two scores, they froze the run game for incomplete passes. 

As the game wore on, the play calling on offense seemed frantic and it was like they were flinging poo and hoping it would stick.  The defense was gassed and getting beat down slowly but surely because they could not stay off the field.  For some reason, they could not slow the game down.  They had the lead, and the defense just needed some help.  Instead it was a lot of passes that were obviously not going to work as long as LSU played their game.  Instead, it was cute plays like the faked reverse dive play that messed up and cost Bama points and gave LSU life.  Instead of a few first downs and a fresher defense, they were running the punter out and Bama's defense was looking at nearly 90 plays against it. 

The Ugly....

When Bama gets cute, it usually gets caught...

Bama ran the fake reverse a couple of times to "throw off" LSU.  They never bit on the play because they had studied film and knew Bama didn't reverse.  Their linemen aren't fast enough on the outside to do that and you can't pull a guard because that opens the middle to blow up .  The fumble in the red zone was just about a killer, but it was a play that just needed to be ran without selling the fake.  Yeldon gets saddled with the fumble on the records, but it was on AJ who was more interested in the fake sell than sealing the hand off.  It didn't cost them the game, but you would be lying if you said you felt good about things at that point. 

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

The Good...

When they had to have it, they got it...

Overall, this was a game that exposed the Tide defense.  However, it also exposed that when beaten, down, and in trouble, they could get it together and make the plays when they had to.  Mosley and others made key plays when they had to and forced Miles to take gambles.  When he gambled, it failed him and saved Bama's hide Saturday. 

Cody Mandell

It is rare that I actually think a Bama punter does well.  He was the best weapon the Tide had in the 3rd and 4th quarters.  He hit 3 40 plus punts and flipped the field enough to balance the special teams and offensive surge the Tide defense was seeing.  It probably won't get a lot of praise, but he deserves a helmet sticker as much as anyone because if he had shanked a few, the game wouldn't have been where it was and the odds of pulling out a win would have been none. 

85 plays, 435 yards, and only 17 points

Miles and his gambling habits played a large part in the fact that 85 plays only produced 17 points.  While this is the high water mark for the Tide in scoring defense, the bottom line is that they forced the tricks to happen.  The fakes and the wildcats and out of range field goal attempts were all created because this defense found its spine when it had to. 

The Bad...

Secondary exposure

My travel schedule didn't allow me to talk about MSU, but the secondary has played like I expected them to in the 1st 2 weeks not the last two.  Granted, some of the plays that occurred were good plays by the WRs, but there were way too many moments where it was obvious that LSU had found Bama's weak links.  Sunseri and Perry were practically pistol whipped all night.  Every time they needed a first down, and converted 50% of them, it seemed they were targeting Perry or Sunseri.  Rightfully so, most Bama fans have known where the kink was, but when Bama went zone they threw at Perry.  When Bama went man, they went after Sunseri and Belue because his height and less physical play was a target.  If you are Oregon, you have a little more pep in your step today because you know you have the speed to expose this again.  Not sure they have the size or physical nature to do it like LSU did, but we will see. 

Personnel Issues

I would argue with anyone, including any coach, why DePriest and/or Johnson cannot be better than Mosley in any package.  I'm sure the true believer will point to one play here or there, and I can pretty well call up the last 2 years where Mosley makes big play after big play and covers better than DePriest ever will.  I had hoped after Trey embarrassed himself with that cop out tackle on Copeland that they would adjust, but they didn't.  Neither Johnson or DePriest had a good game Saturday.  They both looked out of position and over matched by the LSU front. 

It wasn't just the linebackers.  Belue was getting picked on all night and they kept letting them do it.  Perry cannot be on the same side of the field as Belue and expect that to work.  Both are not great tacklers.  Both are slow to react and it cost them a lot of plays Saturday.  Conversely, they also knew that if there was man coverage, Sunseri was the guy they wanted to hit on the quick hits because he can't cover.  Honestly, I still think that Sunseri needs to be playing where Perry does in about every formation and slide Fulton in at corner and move Millner to Star.  He's faster and can rush the QB.  Sunseri has yet to look good when they call him for a corner blitz.  He's too slow to do it and he hesitates when he sees the lineman instead of trying to speed past them.

To LSU's credit, they had saw this in film and made about as good a game plan as they could have to beat Alabama.  Their offense did beat Alabama all night.  They made adjustments at half and Bama didn't.  The saving grace was Miles, again, but there is a lot of work for Alabama to do if they think they are going to go all the way.  The bottom line is that even if they win the SEC, if they have a loss, the won't be in the BCS game if all things keep going this way.  Oregon, ND, and KSU all look like they will go undefeated, so Bama will not have the resume to argue a one loss SEC champ jumping them. 

The Ugly....

Will a real punt returner please stand up...please stand up

We're gonna have a problem here.  You act like you haven't seen a punt before.  Les and Ed Orgeron bust through the door start picking ears and eating grass.... ok, enough Eminem theme.  It is just not acceptable that this late in the year, they are still hunting a return man.  Neither Jones has displayed that they can be trusted.  They both take risks they cannot take and it is pretty clear that they are not coaching them about how to approach the job.  When to fair catch, when to run, when to let the punt go, and so on.  Out of the two, Cyrus is the better option, but that may or may not be an option depending on how the staff views his fumble and fair catch issue from Saturday.

RANDOM THOUGHTS

Fixed Assets

Joker Phillips was the first to be liquidated, but he will have company pretty quick.  To be fair, Kentucky is a tough job with Basketball being the top priority.  However, when your game is so thinly attended that ESPN has to pan in so that you cannot see the stands for the game, you have lost the faith.  It wasn't a shock, they aren't competitive and won't be for a while.  With that said, his firing wasn't a shock but I thought Dooley would be out first. 

The list of SEC liquidation assets are growing by the week.  Dooley, Chizik, and John L Smith are all pretty well buzzard bait unless they pull off a miracle.  Les Miles is tip toeing towards that mark because of all his gambling and time management debacles reappearing after 2 years off.  A loss to MSU or Arkansas would send the fan base over the edge.  That or a poor bowl showing again. 

On the other side, guys who probably are about to make some serious cash money are guys like James Franklin who has done nothing short of a coach of the year performance at Vandy.  Guys like Kirby Smart and Brent Pease or Dan Quinn are all top end coordinators who will get a lot of looks.  Sal Sunseri will get looks elsewhere also.  Don't hold it against him that he's in a mess with a lousy program. 

The one name I really don't want to see as hired is Charlie Strong.  He was a top end DC for Florida and USCar and has done a really nice job cleaning up the Kragthorpe and Petrino debacle.  Kragthorpe was over his pay grade, but Petrino's bad seeds and poor talent were starting to show while he was there.  Just look at Arkansas now.  He's gone and they can't make them work because they can only work in his complex and pass happy system.  Strong's clean up job is nothing short of impressive and you put him in a Tennessee or Auburn, watch out.  He can recruit and more importantly, he can coach. 

If another Internet wannabe says "they have had a very good week of practice", light the bags of poop and have at it!

It is the dreaded kiss of death it seems, but when the wannabe "insiders" come out and talk out of their ass side ways about how great Alabama practiced, they usually haven't.  Why lie or talk like you know?  It is ok to be a part of the 99 percent in this case too.  Look, at the end of the day, we all get stuff told to us by folks who either know or don't but it sounds good.  Bringing attention to yourself by talking about your insider info that never comes true is just wasting time and making people believe in Santa when it is time to let that go.