Random Thoughts.....

With another week of big games ahead, there are plenty of water cooler topics to cover....

The SEC's ever expanding waist line or is it waste line?????

I get the love affair with aTm.  They are in Texas and the SEC has a long seeded desire to be in Texas.  While The Horns are the ones that they have always really wanted, it is pretty clear that they can't absorb Texas in their current needs based condition.  So, you take the prettiest cousin they have instead. 

While some have argued that it will get them ratings in Dallas, Houston, etc. it isn't exactly like aTm is going to eclipse Texas any lifetime soon.  Will it jump up on CBS and ESPN vs. what a LSU or Arkansas game would?  Yes, but it won't jump through the roof.  It would be like Auburn or Mississippi State jumping to the ACC and expecting this whirlwind jump in ratings and stature. 

What aTm brings is distance and a foundation for the future of what the BCS is going to.  Now with the Aggies in the fold, they can now expand towards Missouri or any other midwest school and have a border rival for them in Arkansas and Texas A&M, not to mention LSU. 

I have read a lot of theories about who moves where in the SEC.  I can almost guarantee one thing, Auburn and Alabama will never EVER be split apart.  It is counter productive to the SEC to do that.  They do not want to see the Iron Bowl part deux in Atlanta ever.  If they did, do you really think they would have ignored for the nearly 20 years of divisional play that Vandy is farther west than Auburn is?  The SEC does care about its rivalries and preserving them as best they can.  The SEC is most likely trying to see which ACC school they can bring over that would balance out the format for 14 and then work more towards the Big East or another Big 12 school to get to 16.  Teams like Clemson, NC State, Virginia Tech, Virginia, West Virginia, and others will get a lot of looks and winks.  I think you can all but assure the fact that VT won't go without Virginia in tow and the SEC hasn't ever had a lot of interest in them.  NC State and Clemson are both good for the SEC East because they both could be natural rivals with UGA and USCar.  In the case of Clemson, you get a great baseball school, great campus, and a good football team- not great, but bowl worthy most years. 

Is that what fans want?  No.  They think the SEC should get Texas, OU, FSU, and the sorts.  Remember back when the SEC was committing conference adultery in the 90s?  They were rumored to be after FSU, Miami, and others.  Who did they get?  Arkansas who was about as much a nothing program back then as anything and USCar who was also kinda a 2nd tier at the time.  Did that hurt the SEC?  Hell no.  Over time, both expansion teams have grown into the culture and adapted.  So, getting someone 2nd tier in the fans minds isn't the let down, it is just recruiting for future talent.  If the SEC sees potential to bring a school in and let it mold into a typical SEC program, any on the likely list will be there over time.  As long as it isn't Wake Forest......I kid. 

The Super Conferences will mean the BCS plus 1

Quietly and almost without mention, the 4 super conferences that are about to form over the next year or so will all but guarantee a plus 1 environment.  With the Pac 12, Big 10, SEC, and more than likely the ACC/Big East merger in the near future being 16 or so teams, it will pretty well guarantee that the champion from all 4 will be in the big bowls with at large schools (likely the loser of the championship games) being added to the rotation.  So for example, just using some historical odds based on this year's teams, you would have:

Sugar- BCS1 v. BCS2 (Alabama/SEC v. Texas/Pac12)
Fiesta- BCS 3 v. BCS4 (Va Tech/ACC v. Nebraska/Big 10)
Rose- Wisconsin v. Stanford
Orange- USCar v. Florida State

The winner or the Sugar and Fiesta in this example would play in the BCS championship a week or 2 later.  This would bring tradition back to New Year's games and their importance.  Now a days they are just another bowl game.  The Sugar or Rose Bowl is no longer a major game when the BCS title is a full week or so later.  The other thing that I could see happening is going to either an 11 or 13 game regular season.  The schools are all about revenue, but they aren't about expenses. 

You see, the big issue that underlies all this Cinderella thinking is the money that it will cost.  It is going to be a real pain in the ass for a school like Texas Tech to travel to Washington or Washington State to play.  As is, the farthest they travel in conference this fall is Iowa or Kansas.  That's the state, you know the place where Iowa State and Kansas are.  It isn't going to be all that fun for Alabama to travel to Morgantown or wherever they have to go when all this happens either.  They are a little more stretched out with the boundaries of the SEC being what they are though.  The other issue is how do you split the money up?  That's where the hang up happened last year.  Texas was not content with sharing the money and Nebraska bolted and so did Colorado.  Now, aTm has decided it won't be 2nd on the money train either and they are gone, eventually, and OU seems ready to finish the Pac12 deal they had last summer with Texas and the others. 

So, how would all this break out in theory, and this is based on guess and reading various news sites:

SEC
East              West
Clemson         Alabama
Florida          Arkansas
Georgia         Auburn
Kentucky       LSU
NC State       Mississippi
USCar           Mississippi State
TN                Missouri
Vandy            Texas A&M

So why Clemson, NC State, Missouri, and aTm?  Well, aTm we know.  Missouri is the other expansion west that makes the most sense with Arkansas and the Aggies needing a dance partner out west.  Clemson and NC State really have to be careful.  The ACC will hold them, but what seat would they really have?  Would the ACC keep them over the others?  Hard to say or guess.  I can't imagine in a business world that they would place tenure with the ACC over survival, which is what this is really about now.  So, with the SEC showing interest in getting 2 eastern seaboard schools, these two provide the Carolinas and natural rivals.  Again, I just can't see Georgia Tech, Va Tech, or FSU moving to the SEC.  Tech brings nothing to the SEC, UGA controls Atlanta so that's a wash.  Tech won't go without Virginia.  FSU owned the Big East and it would be hard for them to turn away the chance to own it again with the ACC included.  So not a real shot there.  Also, Bama and Florida would refuse to accept them which would bring a few more dominoes down. 


ACC
Atlantic                   East
Boston College          Cincinatti
Duke                        Conneticut
Florida State            Louisville
Georgia Tech             Rutgers
Maryland                  Syracuse
Miami                       USF
North Carolina          West Virginia
Virginia                    Wake Forest
Virginia Tech            TCU

Remember, this is in fun and speculation, nothing real here.  The ACC and Big East are doomed without each other.  They have natural rivalries in basketball so there isn't a problem bringing them together.  TCU will probably regret joining the Big East, and  of course this could all blow up and they bolt to the Pac or Big 16-18 by the time all settles.  The easiest and most logical thing to do is pair them against each other.  This would be great for Va Tech, Miami, FSU, and BC because they all bolted from the East once before.  The risk is high because UConn would be a target for the Big 10 as would Syracuse and BC.  So, getting them to all buy in and survive, getting a TV deal with ESPN/ABC that keeps them on par with the SEC and Big 10 will be a buy in for most of these schools.  You can't split Duke and UNC, nor can you split FSU and Miami, or Virginia and Tech.  You could move GT and MD over and put USF and Wake or L'ville over, but that just makes more mess.  I actually like this conference when I look at it more. 


Big 10
Legends              Leaders
Iowa                        Illinois
Iowa St                   Kansas
Michigan                  Kansas State
Michigan St             Ohio State
Nebraska                 Penn State
Northwestern           Purdue
Minnesota                Pittsburgh
Wisconsin                Indiana              

When it all starts to go crazy and the Big 12 theoretically dies, Iowa St, Kansas, and K State will have to scramble.  Pitt also will need to keep its ear open.  Sure, they could stay in the Big East and merge, but they have long been sought after by the Big 10, and this is a better home for them in the long run.  The remnants of the B12 may not find a home here, but they are logistically a good fit given Iowa and Nebraska are.  They are the meek in football's world, but in the bigger picture, they give the Big 10 a powerful basketball presence with Kansas and Pitt in the fold.  The Big 10 doesn't seem to worry much about UM/OSU meeting up again in a championship game, and right now that isn't a problem for 3 or 4 years.  However, I wouldn't be surprised if they didn't scrap the alignment and start fresh if they take on 4 more schools. 

Pac 12
North                South
Boise St                   Arizona
Cal                          Arizona St
Stanford                  Colorado
Washington              Oklahoma
Washington St          Oklahoma St
Oregon                    Southern Cal
Oregon St                UCLA
BYU                        Texas
Utah                        Texas Tech

This is probably the hardest conference to figure out.  They are thinking about expanding way beyond the Pacific.  Continuing with the theory that the Big 12 is done, and despite the lawsuits and threats, it still as of Thursday morning looks more than likely to happen, Boise and BYU enter the fray.  If it is the will of the land to max out at 16, they are toast.  For shits and grins though, let's just say they are gonna be invited to play.  Utah is in already, so adding Boise and BYU are not a long stretch, but a long drive.  The bottom line here to me is this- if Texas moves, they move here.  OU has talked a big game, but they are trying to pull Texas along before they get stuck in a watered down, unattractive Big 12.  Texas will drag Tech and OSU with them, and while OU won't admit it, they are gonna drag along too.  OU may talk big, but they need Texas a lot more than they act.  OU needs the Texas viewing market and without them, they really have no real pull when Texas fans are gonna worry more about some other conference or team(s) that they have a vested interest in.  For example, do you really think a Texas fan watches OU v. Oregon over Alabama v. Auburn if Texas is in the SEC?  Especially if the winner is the division champs and would be playing Texas next week?  Get the idea?  So, despite their best "I don't love you anymore", the expectation that OU will next say "I'm sorry baby, you know I just get mad sometimes, you know I love you", and all is well for them and Texas.  Really, for the 4 supers to work, the Pac 12 is the real key and how they make it work because the other 3 are not stretched out across America as much as they are. 

Yes some have 18 teams in them.  On first glance, the ACC would be brutal in basketball.  There are schools like Baylor who are just SOL when it gets down to it.    This is just a rough guess based on all the pairings and logical matchups that would occur for the most part.  Granted, the ACC/Big East would have a problem in basketball with St Johns and Georgetown and Notre Dame jumping in. 

That brings up a wild card folks haven't really talked about- Notre Dame.  While many are trying to pass along their death before the pulse quits.  However, quietly in the background, they sit and watch.  For most, this will be a so what thought.  I would say that scares me more than anything.  More than the lawsuits from Baylor.  More than the thought of having a blood bath each and every week.  More than all things conceivable, the worst thing in the world is to have Notre Dame quiet.  Why?  Well, who would be more than happy to see this happen?  Notre Dame.  Why?  As the last big Indy, they can still wiggle their cut into the BCS with a top 10 finish, and with the super conferences beating themselves senseless, they stand to gain.  Granted, they have to get a little better and a lot more luck than just hanging in there would seem to do, but when you look at how hard this would be on all the conference participants, Notre Dame with some wins against super conference rivals like USCal, Michigan, Michigan State, etc. would have the votes and ranking to slip in and really screw an at-large team like Wisconsin or USCar in the example used. 

On to things that matter, Penn State....

Saban has gone from not thrilled about the play of the OL to getting mad and defensive over rotating players.  That's not a great sign of confidence there.  The word is out that the starting 5 will start again.  My hope is that they will calm down the rotations and mix and match attempts.  The issue isn't playing Jones or Cyko at LT, it is playing both in rotation.  I am all for building depth on the offensive line, and I like seeing what you have in a guy by playing him some, but the in 3 out 3 in again out again, missionary mambo philosophy isn't it.  Momentum is hard to keep for that long when you don't play, even the best can get cold and lose the edge from sitting too long. 

Cyrus is their answer at LT in time, but that time isn't really now yet.  After reviewing the game again, he made a lot of timing errors and hasn't gotten used to the speed of D-1 yet.  He and Phillip Sims are a lot alike in that regard.  Both look good in controlled scrimmages where they are facing friendly fire.  It was different for both guys last Saturday as the guy across from them didn't care if they lived or not.  This week will be a test too, but not just in how they play but in how they learn from week 1 to week 2.  Have they adapted to that speed a little better?  Have they picked up anything from their mistakes in week 1?  Can they apply them?  It is easy to say "well, if their stat lines improve, they improved".  It doesn't necessarily mean that they will have learned anything, they may have just gotten luckier. 

Being Mr. Insider....

I'm just gonna be blunt.  I really wish folks wouldn't put value in what a message board participant says.  I include me in that statement- by the way.  I am by no means an "Insider" and if I was, I wouldn't let it be known.  I get info from friends just as much as most folks do I guess, but I never have had the desire to run and tell it. 

When "Insider" status meant something, those people were a lot more responsible about things than they are now.  You had guys who knew the right people and if they said it, it almost was a lock it happened.  So what happened?  Well, my hunch is Message Board Fame happened.  I see more stuff that is either false or opinion packaged as fact now than I do real scoop.  Take Scott Moore and Bama K for examples.  You have 2 polar opposites really.  Scott is all about getting himself known- regardless if it is in the positive light or not.  He'll run with anything he has and proclaim it as proof, fact, or gospel.  He wishes that having Barger next to him would rubber stamp it, but Barger hasn't exactly been the ambassador.  Bama K- Reggie, is a good guy and a fan.  He loves Alabama and that pushes him to post on boards.  I get that.  What Reggie is bad about doing is taking a fact, usually small and not real news worthy stuff, and mixes it with his opinion on things.  For example, he said Carter would play against Kent St, and more against PSU.  There wasn't a snowballs chance in hell that was happening.  He said Sims would start and Sylve would play.  Oops.  When he sticks to whatever his sources tell him, he's ok.  When he strays from those comments, he gets in trouble. 

That's part two of why nobody believes "Insiders" any more.  When they get in trouble for jumping out there on the "today's practice was the most intense to date....I mean walk through was the most intense to date" train, they want to double down and get defensive instead of saying "I was wrong".  It isn't hard.  I say it about every week at some point about something.  They try to rally the true believers to their aid and cry about the mean people, but at some point you have to realize that if you are going to coin opinion as fact, it is a bad thing for you in the end.  Just because you read it on a message board and it hasn't made it on to another board doesn't make it a nugget of info.  It makes it something that needs vetting.  Before I forget, when you race out there to throw out some info to gain your fame, don't get defensive when you know you are busted.  Also, if you get it from Rodney, Kirk, Shane, Tim, Chase, or whomever, you really should source it and move along. 

I always am amazed at how folks race to the Internets to get their scoop out there.  I guess that is just the nature of the society now with TMZ chasing half unknown running backs, has beens, never will bes, etc. 



RLB002 takes a moment to remember his friend Marshall Edgerton who was killed in Iraq around Christmas 2003.  On this the 10th anniversary of 9/11, I would be remiss if I didn't mention him and I miss Edge every day.  He was one of the cockiest men I ever knew, but even in High School, we knew he'd do anything for us and in the end he did.