The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly- Quarterbacks 2011

FINALLY!!!!  Football has returned to cure the summer stupid!!!!!  Scream it from the balconies, leave all the grand schemes that summer creates, and focus on football.  I have tried to enjoy message board life this summer, but never in my life have I loathed summer reading more than this summer.....

LAST YEAR RECAP

While it was easy to pick on the QB at times, and even benchwarming WRs did, the overall play at QB was better than the year before when it got down to it.  Greg McElroy finished his career as Bama QB with a solid Win Loss record, and had one of his best games against Auburn until the staff took the air out of the ball.  McElroy didn't have a great game each week, but he wasn't the weak point in the offense.  With that said, you knew what you had in McElroy- a guy who won't make the big throws but won't cost you 14 points a game on silly interceptions.  Greg was for the most part the protype of what Saban likes in a QB, but with his graduation, the model will more than likely change.  While some will focus on the negatives, I will remember Greg for his leadership in the 2009 Auburn game where he led the team down the field and made all the right reads.  I will remember him for out Tebowing Tebow in the 2009 SEC Championship Game. 

THIS OFFSEASON

Who is back?


AJ McCarron- AJ is a 4 star QB that comes from a HS that is rich in college profile players.  He also is the blank canvas for any fan who dreams of the Madden/ESPN SportsCenter highlight QB.  He also is the presumtive starter to a degree.  AJ has the time in the system, and he has actual PT- albeit mopup.  He won't lack confidence in his arm or ability to throw, that is for sure.  This spring he worked on his mastery of handling the huddle and playcalling.  The problem for AJ and the 1 thing that could keep him from being the starter full time or beyond the early season,  is maturity.  While he has progressed from year to year, he still is stubborn and gets in the Saban doghouse about his desire to throw long.  He is young, and has come a long way, but he's now the starter, or wants to be at least, and there is more to quarterback than trying to wing one out the stadium.   That was always one of the things that kept Croyle from being great, but he never had a great QB coach.  Coach Mac is a good QB coach- his resume says so- and that leaves it up to AJ to continue to listen and grow or dig his heels in the turf and find his tail slapped more than once. 

Phillip Sims- Like AJ, Sims has the capacity to be a great QB at Alabama.  He is as gifted a player as Alabama has had since Walter Lewis.  He has a huge arm, but is freakishly accurate.  He won the accuracy drills amongst his HS peers at about every camp he attended.  He is mobile and built to take a hit, but he is a pocket passer.  He will not run the option or be asked to tuck and run unless the play is breaking down.  As far as long term upside, it is easy to see that Sims has the most of any QB in the SEC.  However, Phillip lacks live testing.  A Day is nice, but it isn't the same as unfriendly fire.  He needs to display to the staff that in practice and scrimmages that he can handle the pressure they throw at him.  The lack of real testing will be a hard thing to overcome until he plays a few games.  I think he will get his looks, but starting will only happen if AJ demonstrates that he just can't be the guy for this team to win. 


Who is gone?

Greg McElroy.  McElroy was as efficient a passer as anyone I have ever seen.  The term game manager got demented by some fans, but I liked that he was.  I liked that you knew that he would not beat the team with silly plays.  Short of one Julio drop, he would have been the single season record holder for yards in a season.  While it will be different to see a lot more vertical in the offense, I will miss that feeling that I had the last 2 years of feeling like Greg had things under control when it really mattered.


Who is new?

Phillip Ely- I know that as soon as I say anything about him, the rally cry of fans who think every player is superbad will put a roll in their jorts and come a calling.  Ely is like McElroy in that he was a consolation prize so to speak.  He lacks size and a college level arm, but he can manage an offense and has a resume that says he knows how to win.  The biggest perk to me is that he does know big football as his HS team has played a lot of bigger HS programs and he won't be as awed by the size of the SEC as some will.  He is serviceable and will give them a depth chart that will be 4 deep, but here's the thing, if Bama signs 2 more QBs and it has been assumed that it will happen even after Winston didn't commit, he is not going to be apart of the future plans.  If they do not, he gets to fight out for the 2 or 3 spot on the roster.  Regardless, he is a lock to redshirt. 

Blake Sims- Sims is the 3rd string guy heading into the summer, technically.  He is very athletic and has speed to spare.  He probably is going to find the field this fall in 2 ways- as the wildcat QB, and at HB with some flashes of end around passes and such.  With Sims at QB, the threat to run and or throw is probably the best that they've had since adapting to the formation.  Sims isn't really tall enough to be a pocket QB, but if thrown into action as a pure QB, the waggles and bootlegs will be in the offense because he does throw well on the run.  Sims as a QB is best when moving becuase he gets respect for his speed and scrambling skills that he can freeze safeties and get open WR to throw to.  His accuracy is not great, but most scrambling QBs don't throw 65 percent. 

THE QUARTERBACKS

The Good…

Lots of Potential
The lack of experience is there, but there is more upside in the 2 deep and 3 deep here than there has been since the days of the Wishbone and Coach Bryant.  Regardless of who starts or how they rotate, the quarterbacks will be able to expand the offense over time in ways that Wilson and McElroy couldn't.  While the potential is there and the possibility of doing big things is there, as I continue to harp, the expectation for both guys should not be higher than McElroy 2009esque levels. 

The schedule is not going to knock the green off too fast...

While they do go to Happy Valley, I think we as fans all know what we should see there.  To me, the QBs should not get put into a real tough spot until Arkansas or Florida, if then.  It really depends on which Arkansas defense appears this fall.  Will Bama see the one that flustered Alabama for 3 quarters and the defense that clogged aTm up all night or will Bama see the one that got ripped alive by Auburn and flopped against Ohio State?  Florida's defense will be good as always but with new staff and philosophy they may not be on pace by the time Bama gets them.  They get LSU at home so no shock and awe of Death Valley.  The QB race should be over, hopefully, by the time MSU and Auburn welcome the Tide, but that really is where the rubber meets road to me. 

If Bama goes 2 QB, they will have more options to use

As I have stated numerous times, I hate the 2 QB system, but I think regardless it is coming.  As such, this can be a positive because both McCarron and Sims can bring some different options to the huddle.  If you want a guy who can grind it out and mix it up, Sims is the guy that seems to be most suited to play it tight and lull teams in only to put one over the top of the defense.  If you want a guy who can stretch the field both vertically and sideline to sideline, AJ is that guy.  Also, conversely, if you throw Blake Sims into the game you get another wrinkle to use as he can create mismatches through a variety of formations and the fact there aren't many LB or SS on the schedule that can match up 1 on 1 with Sims. 

If this is the big position battle, things are gonna be ok....

Here is the thing about this race, it isn't as huge as some other battles will be.  Whether it is AJ or Phillip won't make Bama more of a BCS contender over the other one.  Those honors go to the LT job, the D Line replacements, and the secondary's growth.  So, there will be pressure for the starter, it comes with the job, but their success is not THE key to the championship. 

The Bad...

For all the potential, nobody and I mean NO BODY can say what they will finally get....

What that means is in spite of what you read or hear, none of us know how these guys will really look once Saturdays come.  I would love to tell you that I know for a fact one of the 3 guys would be a sure bet.  If I could, I would, but then I would focus on lotto numbers and such.  There are concerns with both AJ and Phillip and those won't go away after Kent State.  To be honest, nobody has really witnessed how they handle a true adverse moment in a game.  Will throwing an INT or two during a game make either of them crack?  Will the fear of losing the job cause these guys to choke or play tighter than they would otherwise? 

Two Quarterback Systems Rarely Work

Especially when they aren't complimentary to each other.  If one of the two was the option/running QB, it would be one thing, but both AJ and Phillp are pocket QBs that played in pass happy offenses.  This isn't Tebow and Leak or Watts and Zow.  This is more like Randall and Russell, and that wasn't a great year for Saban.  The system often creates more issues than it solves, but given they cannot commit to either really, it is the best option they have.  My hope is that one separates himself early and the audition does not linger through October. 

Can they win?

Sure, the team can win, and they should win a lot, but if called upon, can either QB step up his game and be the leader of the winning drive?  For all the shortfalls Bama fans put on McElroy, he seemed to always come through when you needed him.  Until they are asked to step up and win with their arms, this is a question and a concern.  Some will act like that is stupid and they can do everything- including fart fire- but the bottom line is that we don't know. 

The Ugly....

Can the staff really pick one and can the fans accept it?

I think there is some concern internally about naming a starter for good.  How they handle this will go a long ways towards the overall success of the team.  The distraction and/or dissension that can come from this can easily make for 1 or 2 losses.  Remember, the 2000 team, and yes I know this isn't Dubose at the helm it is the anti-Dubose, fell apart from the issue amongst other things.  The bigger issue is can the fans accept it?  There is a heavy Mobile contingent on Message Boards and they won't be willing to accept that AJ is not the answer, if that is the case.  I think you would find that the bulk of his pushers last year were from the area, if the truth be told. 


The Bottom Line is....

Bama will be hard pressed to pick a true starter for a while.  The schedule works out well to allow time to take course on the issue.  I almost disqualify any person who quotes a player about the issue because it isn't a secret what is the difference between the 2 starters.  One is taking them to parties and getting them access to the QB life.  The other is more introverted to that life and is more of a huddle pusher.  In the end, I don't know who will win, but I do believe that AJ starts the first drive and Sims backs him up and plays about every 3 series or so.  Blake Sims will be the 3rd QB because Ely will redshirt.  Sims, however, will be more of a running back than a QB when called upon. 



DEPTH CHART

Starter- McCarron- Experience is always a trump card for Saban.

2nd String- Phillip Sims- The co-starter will get plenty of chances to win the job. 

3rd String- Blake Sims/Phillip Ely- Both are too short to be starters, but both are servicable and can play a role.