October 12, 2010

The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly- South Carolina

There is a lot to learn from losing, but you hope that your veterans have learned enough that this kinda thing doesn't happen a whole lot.  This loss wasn't on a player or a position group.  No.  This loss was on everyone from top down.  South Carolina outcoached Bama, and Spurrier smiles because his golfing addicted ass can mail it in each year and now beat you, South Carolina outmuscled Bama, and they out wanted Bama.  That is what has me still pissed about the loss.  It isn't that they lost, and it isn't that USCar was just better, they are right now, it is that they wanted to play and wanted to make a statement and Bama's whole team and staff let them without much more than a whimper. 

OFFENSE

The Good....

McElroy hanging in and making plays sometimes...

I know a lot of folks are trying to spin this loss on Greg and how he holds the ball, more on that soon, but really the only thing holding the Tide in the game was McElroy.  The offense had basically given up on running and being balanced.  That was a bad start to things, and being down 21-3 had a part in that, but this loss wasn't on McElroy.  This loss was lessened by his efforts.  For the "Play AJ" jort wearers, you got 2 good examples Saturday of why he won't see real PT. 

Julio's grab

Jones had the ceremonial drop a few plays before, but he stepped up big and made a huge grab on a good throw in the back of the endzone.  Yes, you are supposed to put it up high to where your WR is the only one who should be able to get it.  My worry now is that with Jones down and out for a few weeks, can this team find a go to playmaker? 

Hanks continues to make the big plays

Hanks is quietly having a great season and is probably McElroy's 3rd favorite target behind Jones and Dial because he makes about 9 out of every 10 snags he gets.  It was a good job on Hanks part to create separation on the route and make one additional move to get to the end zone. 

The Bad...

Hey, when you get a thumpin like this, there aren't many good things going.....

Running? 

I guess the score and the way USCar schemed Bama just baffled Saban and McElwain to the point that running the football is what other teams do.  17 carries between Ingram and Richardson is about 10 to 15 too few.  That's just poor playcalling and poor management from top to bottom really.  You don't sell out to who you are just because you are down, if anything, you settle in and let the running game slow the game down and take the Cock offense off the field for long chunks. 

Tick Tick Tick Tick Tick

The thing with McElroy's refusal to ditch the ball is hard to figure out.  You can tell he just doesn't want to make a mistake, but in doing so, he's gonna make 5 or 6 mistakes.  Granted, the sacks aren't as damaging as interceptions are, but they take the air out of the sails too.  To be fair, some of the sacks on McElroy were on the OL, the fumble was, but some were on him not getting rid of it, at least 2 sacks were on the playcalling/route running of the WRs and the WRs not ditching their routes to help Greg out.  Lots of guys sitting on routes.  For those who will say there was a wide open guy....the one play where they show the routes and Maze was open on the other end of the field, that's a 40+ yard throw when throwing across the field and down field 20.  That's a low, LOW, percentage pass play.  I'd rather see him eat it than try to make that play because the ball is gonna hang up there and defenders can make up the gap in that time frame. 

Offensive line gets down right offensive to watch

They just flat out get too high off the snap.  I keep mentioning it because it is why they get bent back so much and can't just line up and go on these teams.  They have to live on counters and misdirection because those plays are more about backfield execution and reading than OL plowing and digging.  Carpenter and Fluker are slow off the edge and have a real hard time containing a good rush.  They are at their best when just running behind them, but when you have to throw, you almost have to do a max protect because one or the other, or both will lose their man on a consistent basis.  For Fluker, it is just about learning, and for his part, he plays hard and I can see his improvement from game 1 to now.  For Carpenter, it is the same ol, same ol, no improvement, no emotion, no nothing football he plays each week.  It is amazing how Johnson made him look so much better compared to now.  Warmack and Jones do ok but Warmack is guilty of at least 2 penalties or missed assignments a game.  Jones when pulling is great, but one on one he gets shoved around too much.  Vlachos is tough, but it is hard for him to cover when so many guys are either out of position or trying to compensate for another guy missing.  The fumble was a busted play somewhere on the line assignment. 

When McElroy was hit and fumbled from the blind side, Warmack pulled and went outside Fluker.  Williams moved from outside to inside to cover that gap, or was trying to get there, hard to tell with it looking like junk from snap to end.  Either Carpenter or Vlachos had to slide in to that gap because even with Williams moving inside, it takes a few seconds and a lineman can shoot the gap faster than a TE can swing inside and more than likely won't have position to do anything but hold him.  The play was busted before it had a chance and was a good example of the way the day was going up front.  Lots of confusion and a lot of missed assignments. 

The Ugly...

Preparation, Game plan, and Playcalling

There were some who said that Bama was having a great week of preparation.  Ummmm, no.  Great week of prep doesn't come out with deer in the headlight expressions.  They were flat and didn't look like they had thought through what all was ahead.  Part of this may just be that they had gone through 2 emotional games and just didn't have it in them to pull a 3rd act.  That's not an acceptable answer if true.  The game plan, wasn't much of one.  You have a Heisman winner, a future Heisman candidate, and a status quo that follows them that if you feed them, the wins will come.  The game plan was to basically starve them and try to establish the passing game.  I don't mind getting the QB going with some screens and such, but get your linemen and running backs in the game too with some good down hill running.  Even if you are down 2 scores in the 1st or 2nd Qtr, grind it out and take your shots on offense, don't throw it all over creation and wonder why things are not improving.  This team isn't built or made to be successful when you call 47 pass plays (34 attempts by GM, 12 runs by GM all scrambles or sacks, and 1 by AJ).  That's really on Saban too.  He always says he has the veto power to change a play, but they got lopsided in the style and philosophy that had won all those games.  All the way around, it was not a situation that looked like they were comfortable and it was a game where they did all the things that went against what won ballgames for them for the last 2 years. 

DEFENSE AND SPECIAL TEAMS

The Good...

Reality Bites

The reason this post is on Tuesday and not Monday is simply to take extra time and not be quite as emotionally pissed as I was Monday.  The reality is that his Defense has a lot of potential and a steaming pile of hype to it, but very little in tangible substance.  They have 1 good to great pass rusher in Upshaw and when he goes down every other game, every other game is a struggle for this defense to create dissruption.  Dareus has not shown any of the hype and potential that we all thought we would see.  It really is more or less a reality check that now that he's a known name, he's not able to handle the doubles that come with it.  The rest of the D Line is either overhyped or underdisciplined.  Square and Sentimore show flashes that they are playmakers, but Square gets lost in translation at times and Sentimore is always good for at least 1 lost containment per series.  Both are things that will keep them in rotation and not every down players.  Nose had a bigger drop off then anticipated as Murphy and Chapman have yet to establish themselves as guys that could replace Cody.  Both just don't have the drive in them to be great nose tackles.  For a guy as big and as old as Murphy is, it is really disappointing that he cannot translate all that into a great ball player. 

The linebacker core has been a sore spot all year really, but we've ducked the bullet until Saturday and now their undiscipline ways and other issues have come front and center.  They don't have a Mike LB they like.  Donta isn't going to be utilized to his best at it.  Johnson looked good at it last week but the staff apparently felt otherwise.  Mosley will be a good Mike in the future, but he's way too green for such a role against great offensive minds like Spurrier and Malzahn.  Harris is a bust and has now returned to the bench and the schemes will never let Chavis Williams play enough to contribute more than 5 to 10 times a game.  The biggest problem is that Donta isn't healthy.  They want him to be ready to roll, but you can tell each week that he just can't move well enough to do the things he is being asked to do.  He also lacks confidence in his knee.  There were 3 or 4 times Saturday where he had a chance to snuff a play out and stop the running backs at the line or behind it and let them drag him forward 3 yards because he just won't plant the bad knee and drive with it. 

The secondary is very green and very average.  Kirkpatrick is their only cover guy, but he's very undisciplined and loses containment too often.  Millner has yet to show that he's ready.  Menzie like Hightower is not healthy enough to play substantive downs.  I think if he were, this secondary would be much better.  He at least shows that he can read the play.  He just can't move to it.  Lester is fine in cover 2, but against the run and when in man coverage, is average at best.  The loss of Robbie Green is really showing itself now.  Barron is only one man and he cannot be asked to do it all, and he too suffers when asked to cover a WR.  The biggest villian going against the secondary isn't the players, it is the coaches though. 


The coaches continue to try and cover and live in a false assumption that if you cover it, you can win.  The 1st half vs. ARK, the 2nd half vs. UF, and all of the USCar game show that covering all day is how you get beaten up and worn down.  All 3 examples have the same theme.  Bama sends 3 or 4 and drops the rest, the QB has plenty of time and makes his progressions.  Each example, Bama cannot get the D off the field fast enough.  Florida made enough mistakes that it didn't show up as substantively as it did in the other two. 

So how is this good?  In re-reading it, it seems rough, but that's really what needs to be done.  Fans and player got too high on the product and didn't spend nearly enough time realizing that this defense isn't as good as last year's.  It is more of a mirror to some of Kines defense.  Lots of bending and the hope of not breaking, but it works at times and doesn't others.  Still, while it isn't the most optimistic thing, you know what you have, and if Saban does what he usually does, he'll start making roster moves and trying to find the best 11 in each situation to win.  Folks in the BJ Scott breakout game camp, your chant may come soon enough.  I'm starting to wonder how he's that far behind the others.  Same for Fulton, I get they may not do the best in zone, but have you seen the finished product?  Nobody plays well in zone except for Lester.  To me, that's kinda good news that we'll see what Bama has over the next few weeks at several positions.  In the meantime, it will do the fan base good to quit talking shit all day. 
The Ugly...heck, it was so bad it got ugly....

Special Teams are just dysfuncionally special....

I hate watching special teams mistakes.  So, you can bet that there was a lot of times where I was hating life Saturday with each blunder.  I'll start with the fake FG.  There are three things about the FG that were bad from the start:

1.  If you call timeout, you almost have to fake it because otherwise, you wasted a timeout or just iced your own kicker.

2.  Everyone in the lower 48 states knows by now that Shelley is the short yardage FG kicker and a 42-45 yard try is out of his range, so the fake is on.

3.  Using a Jack Linebacker as the safety valve is about as bad an option as any imaginable.  The old addage held true, if you can't catch, you play linebacker. 

AJ also showed 2 times on special teams that he gets rattled quick.  He was in such a hurry to get rid of the ball that he just needed to wait about 2 more seconds and Underwood would have been angled and separated enough to put it over his shoulder for a 1st down at least.  The missed EXP was really on him.  If the snap hits your hands, it is yours to bring down and plant, it doesn't really matter if it is high, low, right or left of target, if it doesn't hit the ground first, its on the holder to put it laces out.  Laces out DAN. 

The snapper isn't without fault though.  His snaps have been earth diggers all season and Bama will have a punt blocked due to the timing delays from the snaps before the year ends.  Maybe 3 or 4 at the rate it is going.  The whole thing stinks. 

Defensive Theories of Macro Proportional Ineptness

Despite the special teams blunders, and the offense having the sputters at times, the loss really falls on the defense.  They had 2 stops the whole day.  The safety and the interception were the only stops they made, and really the defense didn't cause the safety.  As a whole, if any defensive decision maker thinks that the best way to protect this team is to cover it, they've only assured themselves of an 8 or 9 win season.  This team has to be ready to play a lot more man with the corners and prepare to put more than 3 or 4 men on the rush against the meat of the SEC schedule.  They can't zone out Ole Miss, and UGA proved that UT is just one blitz away from disaster, LSU same thing, and Auburn same thing.  You must be ready to give up the big play once or twice to get 5 or 6 bigger plays.  They just aren't good enough to play the amount of cover they do.  That isn't a player issue, or a talent issue, it is a coaching realization issue.  They also really really need to think about how this team's packages are going to be used.  They got caught more than once trying to late sub and Spurrier caught them each time.  That is just a sign of lack of preparation on the coaching staff's part.  They need to find the best 11 potentially and grow with them and do the things that they do well and be ready for the parts they don't do well.  Of course, if the offense can run the ball and keep the defense off the field, this kinda lessens the concern.....

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

I really enjoy your analyses -- you do a great job. On a related note, feel free to post that Ole Miss breakdown anytime now :-)