Looking at Arkansas

I did this for Florida before the SECC, because I saw a lot of folk lore and myth about them and I see a little of that starting up now for Arkansas because they lit Georgia's defense up like a Christmas tree.

Arkansas Defense v. Alabama Offense

Really, this is where the game is at. Surprised? You shouldn't be. Arkansas will score and rack up some yards, they are built for it. The key though is on the other side and how you answer the bell. Georgia made 2 mistakes but survived them. They tried to play a game of swapping licks and you really shouldn't try that with a team that wants to run up a scoreboard. They also didn't try to ice Arkansas by keeping them off the field.

That's where Bama starts to me. Ball control. They need a lot of 10-15 play drives that chew 7-10 minutes at a time and result in scores. That doesn't mean they line up and just run a plow boy offense, but it does mean that they might want to avoid going for the home run on each series. Arkansas runs a pretty basic 4-3 and nickel for spread situations. They want to use the front 4 and usually 1 linebacker to attack and then move the play to the side they are shading the other 2 linebackers to. I didn't see a lot of blitzes that were surprises or that you couldn't see pre snap. It looks like Petrino's philosophy of defense is more or less that of Kines, a bend and don't break style that ends up broken a lot. The linebacker play isn't great, but it gets by right now. They aren't real good in space or trying to cover the backs and TEs in route. They are real stiff and when they play zone they look lost a lot. I noticed that they kept trying to bluff their SLB and then drop him in coverage but he isn't nearly fast enough or good enough to do that. He looked uncomfortable and confused as to what he was supposed to do at times when UGA had 2 routes around him.

Arkansas secondary is a hot pile of humanity that just stirs around and looks like crap. It reminds me a lot of some of the Auburn defenses in the late 90s. They play off the WR, hug the sidelines and leave the deep middle wide open to deep slants and in routes. Given the schedule, I wouldn't be surprised if they don't rank around last or next to last in pass defense at year end. Really, Arkansas is almost saying score quick and let us play offense some more the way they do things.

For the Bama offense, it starts in the run game. There is a lot of room to work in the middle against Arkansas. They never answered the bell against UGA when they ran up the middle on dives, draws, and counters where they pulled a guard into the 2 and 3 gaps. They need to use their size advantage on a small front 4 and smaller LB crew (they are all 6-1 230ish) and put helmets on helmets. If Bama can be on a constant downhill run, they will break Arkansas down and then things get easy. When they establish the run and start asserting their will on offense through the run, Arkansas will bunch and drag their safety (Harris I think is his name) into the box to run support. That only makes that deep flat opportunity more accessible.

When Bama goes to the air, they don't need to just go deep and over the middle. Even Arkansas figured out their weak spot, but when they did, it only found another gap to hit. What Bama has done well is spread the wealth, and that should confuse Arkansas more than anything. If McElroy continues to do a good job of working down his progressions and making Arkansas work hard at covering all 4 or 5 options, he will get a nice choice of about 3 guys to choose from. Cox did most of the night.

If Julio is able to go, and all indications are that he's a go, he should have a big night even if they bracket and double team him. Green was doubled and shadowed, and he found the soft gap in their bracket and Cox was able to hit him because the pressure from the Hawgs was not much. I would also expect either McCoy or Hanks to get some opportunities much like UGA's 2 guy did. They both play tall and physical enough to work over the smaller secondary. Peek also should be getting a lot of chances if they throw enough.

All in all, I don't know if they will score 50 on the defense, I hope they don't have to, but they shouldn't have a lot of problem getting up in the 30s.

Arkansas Offense v. Alabama Defense

Petrino and Bobby Cox are two peas in a pod. Both live on the big play. Petrino is one of the nation's best offensive minds and he does a lot of complicated things to disrupt the defense. Sadly, Michael Smith, who was really their best weapon last year and probably is this year, is being relegated to a smaller role as they try to open up down the field. However, they did try to stay balanced in the 3rd quarter and had success with it, but they stayed in catch up mode and had to abandon it. So, the running game is not a real factor in spite of their offensive line being huge. That area may give the Tide staff a little worry because they are all 6-4,5 and run 300+ each.

Mallett is where the offense facilitates from and how well he does is how well Arkansas is doing. Mallett was considered one of the best quarterbacks coming out of school and he probably is the best in the SEC right now as far as being a pure QB. He is big and has an arm that allows him to hit any throw he wants, but he is not mobile. He compensates for his lack of mobility by feeling the pocket and stepping up and hurrying his progressions. He is very smart and doesn't make a lot of bad throws. He has that Marino style to him in those regards. He just doesn't let the team get beat on his account and he makes most of the plays he needs to make.

There are weak spots though. 3rd and long has been a common place for them. They are only getting 1 in 4 3rd downs converted. They have only converted 6 all year in fact. That happens with passing oriented teams. They go 3 and out a good bit and stall out, and that is where the trouble starts on the other side. They have gone on 4th down 5 times and converted 4, so they are using 2 downs to get 1st down in some cases. That means the secondary needs to execute on 3rd and not give them half of what they need, they need to break the play up and keep them 4th and long. They have a pretty low Time of Possession and don't run hurry up, they just try to chew the field up on each play.

McElroy and Mallett are a lot a like in one regard, they spread the wealth. Six players have 5 or more catches after 2 games. 13 players overall have gotten touches this year. Mallett has 3 favorite targets in Childs, Wright, and Adams. DJ Williams, the SEC's best TE, is his safety blanket and red zone threat. The Razorback WR core is not real tall and there aren't the Monks, Wilsons, and Joneses that could give matchup problems because of they're size. They are a faster group than what we are used to seeing from Arkansas though. From what I have seen of them, they seem to run the routes well, but don't do some of the small things that help the QB out, like cut in front of the defender or break route and go to the QB when flushed. Most of what Arkansas does is on a timing basis and they are trying to have their guys hit their cuts at a certain point and Mallett's internal clock stays in tune with that.

For Bama to put the squash on Air Hawg, they have to come up with a lot of smoke and mirrors. I would say that 95% of the game, the Tide defense is in the nickel or dime. I've said before I like them in the dime better because they can use Barron and Green and Woodall and do a lot of things with them and guys like Hightower and Anders through it. If they are going to blitz and rush the QB, they need to be dedicated to throwing the playbook at him and not be stale with how the rush and they need to create the gaps that will allow a corner or linebacker in and blow the play up. They won't get to him too many times, but they can let him know they are around and that will cause him to start pressing and making mistakes. I think they can get in his head some, but he won't break down like others will.

I would expect to see Bama load the box with 7-8-9 players playing up on the WR and in between the down linemen to show a lot of blitz, but break into coverage at the snap. They probably will play a lot of zone because of all the things Petrino does with the WRs and use McClain and Hightower in space to cover Williams and Smith if they go into their routes. It wouldn't surprise me if they didn't overload Mallett's blind side and send the end, one of the linebackers and/or a safety/corner to force Arkansas to max protect or confuse them as to who has who before the snap.

Because Bama will play a lot of pass protection formations, there has been a lot of worry over Marquis Johnson on the Bama boards. I understand that concern, but if they are staying in zone it won't be just him. If they try to go man on man, which would probably work some, but not a great deal, then yes, I would worry too. In the zone, they may target him and Barron more, everyone else has, but the trick to zone is keeping everything in containment and reading the play. To me, the key here is between the 3 safeties, Barron/Green/Woodall, and how well they read and cover than the 3 corners. If they play like they have the last 2 weeks, they probably will be fine, but I do expect some big plays to happen against the defense that are just players getting out of position or beat.

The key overall for the defense is to improve their efficiency against the pass. They are allowing about 53 percent completion and only 1 pick all year. Mallett is hitting about 62% and hasn't thrown a pick. They have to make him force a pass and make the play on the ball this week. They can't hope that he overthrows it or the WR drops it or they can just break up a pass. He's hitting the correct shoulder too much to hope for that, they're going to have to snag a few and make the play. They have to force Arkansas to make mistakes and penalties because the mroe they throw the more that happens. Bottom line.

The more I think about the game, the more this one feels like a 42-24 type game, but I could also see it being a 38-20 type game too. Either way, Bama has the talent and the defense to win if they play their game. So, yes, I think they cover a 2 touchdown spread, but playing Bama against a spread is like letting me kick you in the balls and taking your money.