10 Things You Might Not Believe Now But Will In December

Since reading the Bama Nation's message boards are about as exciting as having Brit Hume at your Cheetah bachelor party, time to think a bit......

There are 10 potential scenarios that fans may not want to believe today, but may accept in December:

1. Nick Gentry will be missed more than Upshaw
While simple thought process would say Upshaw was a near first round pick and such, the issue isn't about draft status as much as what both meant in their roles on the team.  Neither will be as missed as Hightower or Barron, but the 3rd most missed player will be Gentry.  Why?  He provided a key role on a team that had very few serviceable Defensive Tackles.  This fall without him, they are now reaching to find that interior pass rusher and nickel tackle.  Upshaw's role will be filled just as he did after Anders left.  The depth and talent at Jack is such that even as good as he was at times, the step down is not as drastic as it is at tackle.  Also, Upshaw, as good as he could be at times, went missing other times.  Week in and out, you saw Gentry make an impact. 

Another aspect that some fans seem to forget is that Williams didn't exactly take to playing the nose last year and to date has not looked truly comfortable yet.  He's a natural 4-3 tackle, and that is why he played end last year was to play the 3-5 gap or B-C gap.  He had a hard time adapting to the fact he was going to be doubled or tripled at times, something he never got in the 4-3.  Williams is a very good football player, and he is strong enough to play any of the 3 down lineman positions.  However, the mentality that it takes is different and that doesn't just happen cause you are told to play there.  Nose is a hell of a hard position to play, and probably the toughest to play on defense from a physical standpoint.  When Bama went Nickel or Dime, Gentry's rush allowed Williams to play more free.  He doesn't have that wingman this year.....yet.  Yes some of you will say this guy or that, but it is all speculative today. 

2. Hanks will be missed more than Maze
While Maze was the vertical threat of the two, Hanks was the guy that made a lot of big catches that kept AJ McCarron in rhythm.  Folks will say that they have Norwood and White and this guy and that guy.  What we are talking about though is potential and not consistent production.  We cannot say with any truth that any are proven because none have been able to crack the depth chart.  Why will Hanks be missed more though?  Simple, he was their best all round player in the Wide Receiver core.  He was their best blocker, best route runner, and best hands.  They have guys that we know can go north and south, but do they have a guy who is willing to do the dirty work?  Will any of them go in motion and put a shoulder into a LB or safety off the snap to free up a runner?  The little things that happened with Hanks were never really realized, but I think we will start to notice it with this team.  Mississippi State is happy to see him go because he p'wned them every fall. 

3. This team would not be any better or worse with Duron Carter if he had played

Before you try to tell me that he's got a chance....stop....just.....stop.  While they need a playmaker at WR, Duron's physically it, but teammate/mentally wasn't it.  The thing that folks don't get is that he's not good with the "Process" that continues on.  A guy who has the baggage and issues with authority and rules will destroy a program by eating it from the inside out.  Don't belive it?  See Shula....See Dubose....See Richt....See Fulmer and on and on.  If he had played, would they score a couple more TDs at that position?  Probably.  Would the morale and chemistry of the team be worse and result in a loss or two more than otherwise?  Yes. 

4. Alabama's secondary will not be able to win a game like it did at times last year

Much like 2010, this year's secondary is very green.  It is a little more proven with Millner and Lester's experience, but Bama replaces a lot of key parts.  I like Sunseri a lot, but let's be honest, he's learning a position.  Collins and others may beat him because they are a little more natural at the safety position.  Belue and Fulton and company are all untested and will start their first game (if they are the starters in the end of summer drills). 

Like WR, the DBs are all speculative and not quantitative.  Millner has had some good games and bad games, but the question is can he be THE guy or will he have to hang in there?  There is not a Dre or Menzie (who was the best corner last year play to play to play) there to help shore up things or take the play over or cut the field in half.  He's got to be that player and if he can, great Bama is ahead of the game in a pass happy conference.  If he cannot be that guy, Bama has a lot of scheming to do.  The 2 loss question will be:  Will Bama try to scheme and zone them to death or will they pin their ears and play like they have a veteran team?  In 2010, I thought they were too passive and played back too much under the theory that if they dropped 7 in coverage, they could shore up a young secondary.  That didn't work.  SEC teams are too good to let sit and pick their progressions.  This fall, they have to trust them and if they give up a play here or there, that's fine.  They just need to produce more turnovers and more 3 and outs to keep them off the field. 

5. Alabama will not miss Coach McElwain, but will miss Sunseri.

Surprised?  Shouldn't be.  You wanna know who the offensive and defensive coordinators are at Alabama?  Same guy it has been since he got there....Nick Saban.  They have ran the same schemes and formations on both sides practically for his entire term and will do so now.  Does that mean Mac and Smart and Steele and Nuss are not a part of the success?  No, nothing of the sorts.  Look, it gets real simple when you look at Major Applewhite's failure to grasp Saban's concept and Mac's abillity to work in the system.  You can hire any name you want, but in the end, they are gonna be asked to work through Saban's methodology.  McElwain was a good coach and developed 2 good QBs in his time there.  With that said, the drop off to Nussmeier is superficial right now.  They run and think the same gameplan basically coming in. 

That isn't the same in filling Sunseri's presence.  A coach that was well thought of and respected across the board, and earned a role he was deserving of, has been replaced by a recruiter.  While that will pay dividends in some ways, shouldn't winning recruit itself now?, his work has never been great anywhere he's ever gone.  Also, as his career proves, you still have to coach and teach to make players great not just get a 5 star name on the roster.  His work at Bama is worth merit as a recruiter, but his recruiting at UT and Georgia Tech were good, at their level, but they lacked the second and more important half- coaching.  It also is going to be an issue because Lance couldn't stay still if he wanted to.  His resume is a hop a skip and a jump over and over:

2012-Present	Outside Linebacker Coach	Alabama
2011	Defensive Line Coach	Tennessee
2009-2010	Linebacker Coach	Tennessee
2007-2008	Outside Linebacker Coach	Alabama
2004-2006	Defensive Coordinator	UCF
2002-2003	Assistant Head Coach, Recruiting Coordinator & Tight Ends Coach	LSU
2001	Defensive Line Coach & Recruiting Coordinator	Georgia Tech
1999-2000	Defensive Line Coach	Alabama
1995-1998	Defensive Line Coach & Recruiting Coordinator	Georgia Tech

Do I hold it over him for going to UT?  Sure do.  Can he earn trust?  Well he has Saban's and I am sure he called him and said "hey, I screwed up" (yeah there's a dig and an inside joke).  The issue with him is that he's not a great Xs and Os guy that Sunseri is.  Sunseri's experience and near coordinator like approach will not be replicated on the staff, but from the view of things as is, they are covering it from the upper end this time.  My expectation for them is low as the experience is not there.  I fear that without a Sunseri type of coach, they may not be as progressed as they would be otherwise.  Remember, in 2009, that is when Anders and Reamer came on strong, especially after Hightower's injury.  In 2008, they were trying to piecemill guys at Jack and Sam.  I try to forget from 2000 to 2007 as much as I can. 

6. Nkemdiche and Foster are going to be recruiting attention hounds all year. 

As you can read over years of posting about this, I hate where recruiting is going.  I try to avoid reading it any more than I have to until about Thanksgiving.  Why?  Well, a commitment is just a thing you do to get attention.  It no longer is something that is a bond or keeping your word because some want to be on the top of every recruiting page each week.  That's pretty pointless to me.  Foster is becoming a story where you may not want to be the team holding his LOI in the end the way this thing twists around.  Also, traditionally, players who do this whole attention scheme event usually fizzle out faster. 

I don't like seeing players doing things like what recruits do now because they feed off the reaction.  They want to go to all these places and see their name at the top and they want to see the fans cry when they jump and cheer when they say they are interested or committed.  I especially don't like the package deal scenarios that are going on either.  With 25 solid spots to fill and the attrition rate being about 20 percent, it is hard to put 2 or 3 spots for buddies of the star recruit if they are gonna transfer in a year or two.  Foster may stay with Bama, he may flip to Georgia or whatever site gives him the most press, but regardless he seems content to run this game to the finish. 

Losing both or just RN isn't the end of the world, and it would be nice to have them, but it isn't the most pressing need they have this signing class. 

7.  TJ Yeldon will get more carries than Fowler will by the end of the season.

I get why fans love Fowler, but the future is Yeldon.  Fowler's conditioning and lack of speed will catch up to him because Yeldon can compliment Lacy and give them a threat without letting off the gas.  It will be the best duo since Ingram and Richardson in 2009.  Fowler's role will continue to be the game finisher.  Getting a lot of carries on a worn down defense and capitalizing on it.  Some guys have that kinda luck.  I just don't see Fowler getting over the limitations he has by the end of summer.  If you wonder where this comes from, just go back to last year when Lacy was out.  Fowler's production vs. those teams is nothing like what it was when he was mopping up the victory.  That isn't a knock on him, but it is a fact of life in the backup RB race.  One guy has all the skills, and can block well enough, and one is a north south runner nothing more or less. 

I will say this, I'd take Fowler 7 days a week and twice on Sunday before I'd ever touch Crowell (told y'all he was a quitter/mental). 
 
8. Alabama's championship moment will not come at LSU.

Surprised?  It is more than likely Missouri.  Missouri is that South Carolina type team that will be at home and loaded for the upset.  Missouri wants to make a name for itself, but can they do it against the best?  That's the moment in itself.  Sure there is Michigan on opening night.  Yes LSU will be a big game, but I am not sure they will be the LSU of last year.  They will be good, but not undefeated and a juggernaut waiting for Bama like they were last year. 

Missouri looks like that circle game where Bama makes their mark or not.  Is Missouri a national title team?  Hell no.  However, they have the schedule and the type of team to be what USCar was in 2010 to this team.  The reason this is Bama's championship moment isn't that Mizzou is a great team, but they are that team that they failed to beat in 2010- USCar, LSU, AU- eager, offensive minded coaches (minus AU), and looking to make a statement.  They are that kind of team and for Bama to make that statement that this isn't 2010, this is the game.  Not Michigan, not Arkansas (I doubt they do much this year with rent a coach), not anyone pre October.  This is the game that looks the most like that trap game they failed to get through in 2010.  Save all the bye week whining, save all the belly aching about any excuse, winners find ways to win and when you can't find the way, you lose.  Period.  Missouri is a pass first team, and they will be the real test of the young secondary.  Failure to find the way to win will result in a lot of groans that this is 2010 again. 

9. Bama is doomed to repeat 2010 if a vocal leader doesn't emerge.

Lost in the folklore of excuses and propaganda when folks talk about 2010, the vocal leader wasn't there.  Rolando McClain had left and the voice of the team was gone.  This year, they will need to find that voice again because Hightower and Barron were the voices of the team.  Sure there are guys who can lead, but the thing about leading isn't that it just happens, it is that you don't really lead until adversity is in front of you and what you do impacts the whole team. 

In 2010, those moments came and nobody really took the team and said no more, we win it now.  Last year, that happened after LSU, that happened every day after that game.  Will that happen now and who is gonna step up and be that man?  That will be the interesting moment is when they face a moment where they could lose, or worse do lose, will a player or group of players step up the moment and challenge every player to play above themselves? 

Who do I think will be that guy?  I think Nico Johnson or Barrett Jones would be the most likely candidates, but you never know when someone sneaks up on you as a leader. 

10.  Kelly will beat out Steen by year end.

I like being wrong.  It usually means that the team is doing better.  This may be one of them, but the last 2 seasons have been the same routine for Steen.  Lots of talk, fans hype, and he plays....then he loses his starting role.  With that said, he's not going to have a senior with experience looming behind him or around him this time.  However, Steen is a guy that seems to live and die by his power alone and struggles when technique and understanding how to play lineman in space come into play.  This really is his year to either turn the corner or get left behind.  He's a Junior now, he isn't young, he isn't "learning", and there aren't any reasons why he cannot learn and succeed now. 

Kelly has been a player that the staff really likes since he signed.  Much like McCullough and others, he's just a guy who plays the position(s) well, not great, and supplies the team with a solid performance.  Now, like I said before, he's not seasoned so he hasn't been thrown to the wolves quite as much, but he scrimmages against all the 1s quite a bit and seems to show a great deal of upside in those situations.  The question is, can he step up if Steen continues to play stiff and lets AJ get plowed a few times to many? 

With Jones at center and Fluker at tackle, Steen will have the best he's ever going to have surrounding him.  Of course, Jones has about as many snaps in live games at Center as Kelly does anywhere.  If Jones has a few issues adapting to Center, will Steen or anyone be able to help shore him up?  Lots of ifs and buts going into summer drills that we still don't know, and won't know much until September.