This is really a delicate time for the Crimson Tide in a sense that while they have a lot of reasons to be optimistic and you want your team to believe it can be a champion, there are pitfalls ahead if you get too positive and only focus on the strengths of the team. It would be easy for the Tide to rest on its laurels and do what most teams have done not named USCal and Nebraska over the last 2 decades, but we know that Saban is a little different than that and the quest to repeat is something I think he really, REALLY wants to do.
Saban will earn his payday and then some this fall because now instead of pushing the team to be a champion, they have to play the role of a champion and defend it. They have the talent across the board, they have experienced leaders, they have depth at most areas, they have great coaches, so one would think this is a sure bet, right? Guarding and managing optimism and confidence will be a tough act for a coach that hasn't had to do that much in the last 3 years. If you think back, his first year was about showing them the way, the second was continuing to show the way and build up from that, last year was about finishing what they built, and now it is about what they have built and continuing to build from that. Confusing ain't it? Some will say "Saban has a plan.", others will say "There is nothing wrong with being confident and optimistic.", and they are right to a point. However, there is a reason nobody since USCal (technically) and Nebraska have repeated in the modern era as national champs. LSU's championship teams with Saban and Myles fell flat and did not even attempt to repeat in the end. Florida has come the closest with their 08 and 09 seasons, but they found tough opposition all through 2009 that caught up with them when Bama waited for the revenge they sought.
That's where Bama is now. They all want to be the one that takes Bama down. Every team Bama plays this fall will be circling the game and talking about it in summer drills and fall practices. They will be talking about it in the weight rooms. They will mention it in film over and over. Teams like USCar and UF will be dying for a second chance. Teams like Auburn and Tennessee will be wanting to show the world that they figured out the trick of beating Saban. The devil in optimism is that while Bama has all the pieces to win again, there are several teams looking for ways to take the pieces apart and run through them.
There are 5 things ahead that you will hear and will make you think perfection is ahead, but moderate what you read and hear with what it really means. There are pitfalls in the 5 areas.
1. 7 on 7 drills. 7 on 7 drills are a great way to get deceived when it gets down to it. If you have heard that everyone looks awesome in 7 on 7 s, it is because it is easier to look sharp in that setting. Remember, Star Jackson, Brandon Avalos, Nick Fanuzzi, and others have looked good to the naked eye in that setting. I know from listening to Saban's caravan tour that he values leadership and more intangible items than he does who can jump high, run the fastest, or throw the farthest. 7 on 7s are good for seeing potential, but never ever take them and try to make more than it is.
2. Summer practices open to public. It seems like every year this becomes a real session of who can bullshit the highest when someone gets to view a scrimmage or practice and go online and tell all about it. The thing that I come away with when you ask them about what they saw is pretty much what they wanted to see. The problem comes in when you cannot tell the factual part from the perception. Case in point- how many times did you hear that certain players were studs, beasts, etc. and then they never break the 2 deep? We are all guilty of having pet players or whatever you wanna call it. One poster on a site of bowel movement nature had a thing for Hannaran and he was gonna be special, I couldn't tell you what he looked like much less. Probably the best example is last year's scrimmages. There were some who said McElroy was throwing behind the WRs and they thought Star looked better, others hailed him as greatness. Then you heard later in the year that at any moment, Coach Saban was going to pull McElroy for AJ because he was getting snaps in practice. Folks, if you played any sports at all you know that in some cases, the coaches will let the 2nd string guys fill in during practice to get them ready for emergency needs. Starters pretty well know the playbook (at least in Saban times they do, pre-Saban/post-Stallings not so much at times) and it is good to work through fresh legs and rest tired ones. Does that relay in the posting or emails? No, but it does make for great thread counts and e-fights. I can't think of one game where I thought he was going to lose his job because they were never really behind or struggling to stay in the game for that matter, but again, someone said somewhere.....
3. That damn depth chart. You can fall into the Saban trap and have to chew your leg off to get out if you put deep stock in an early depth chart. I always get a kick out of depth chart analysis. I've learned it is about as good as the paper it is printed on until opening day kickoff. Even then, you trust it with your own peril because Saban isn't afraid to switch around til he likes what he sees. Remember, Barrett Jones came out of nowhere to be the starter, as did Drew Davis, Javier Arenas, and Kareem Jackson became a starter half way through his first year. Dont'a Hightower was a surprise when he beat Prince Hall out in 2008 (well at the time it was). Brandon Fanney surprised several by winning the Jack job after Knight was hurt. The list goes on, but you get the idea. When the depth chart comes out, don't put it in stone just yet.
4. When Coach Saban mentions players.... Another pitfall for endless misplaced optimism comes every press conference that Saban does. It is no wonder he gets pissed and chews reporters for asking questions at times, when he knows the answers will have fans off in a delusional theory fest over every word he lets out. Saban does 2 things in the press conferences that I've picked up on. First, he tries to give as many "shout outs" as he can. It helps their confidence and it helps recruiting to know that you can be mentioned on TV everyday. Second, he takes the time given to put inside messages to players not making the cut. We don't ever know the who, but you can usually pick up on it when he says it. I listen closely to his conferences but I don't try to analyze them very much because Monday could be a bad day, Tuesday a great one, and so on.
5. This year is the year because a player had X stars in high school... My favorite thing in the world is how popular culture has made stars in again. We got them for doing good in kindergarten and now we can see them if you can play ball. If you read my blog often, you know I don't like the star ratings because it is too much gospel for some and they can't understand why a Von Ewing, Albert Means, etc. didn't cut it. I prefer to actually see them play before I get wild about a player. The Team AJ bunch lynches to this a lot because he was a 4 star QB from Mobile. In case you missed it, he had 4 stars....no snaps....no starts... but 4 stars. I know as I type this, Team AJ will stand in their jorts and howl at me. In a couple of days, you'll see I like AJ as much as anyone, but I'm not delusional yet. Tyler Love comes to mind in the stars = starts someday soon thought. Love for the life of him is big enough to play, but isn't going to unless someone gets hurt. There is a lot more to it than just how you look in a jersey or in video against the rug rats of your class level, but how you can project to grow. Sometimes, players are as far as they can go when you are seeing them recruited. Sometimes, a player has a lot of untapped potential that we can't see on film (Arenas comes to mind). So just blurting out "he is a 4 star/5 star and the starter was a 3 star" doesn't really mean much when it gets down to it.
In the end, optimism is a good thing, it makes things go forward, but too much or misplaced optimism can have the exact opposite effect. There are a lot of things to be excited about. You'll see that in each posting as we talk about each roster position. However, if you think this team will easily roll through, or even go undefeated right now, your optimism is probably too high just yet. I know from listening to Saban speak and reading the pre-season mags, he is trying to temper the enthusiasm and keep things more like they were than what they are.
That's kinda the focus this pre-season, where can fans really be optimistic and where might they temper it a bit. In the past, we've always talked about who it would take to be champions, so that's a nice change to go to. It took the GBU/Random Thoughts blog 9 years to get to that point and it wandered through some really bad days, but the fun part is ahead. After this season, the 10 year "special" comes up where I've saved some of the best thoughts and comments over 10 years for a rainy day. Lots of humor in them, although at the time, I don't think some got the "if you don't laugh at it you will cry" style that I use at times. Hopefully it will be after discussion of the repeat, but even if that doesn't occur, I think we'll all be happier with the results now than 10 years ago. I know I will be.
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