Random Thoughts

In this week's random thinking, it is high time to wonder why football is settled in conference calls and computer programs and not on the field, thoughts on the linebackers again, and misc. items....

BCS is near....

http://bcsguru.com/bcs_standings.htm

Sam Chi is a guy who has figured out the system and can make all the analysis as to if X loses, then Y benefits scenarios. If you have Sirius XM, you probably have heard him go deep into the think tank on Rivals Radio. It actually is entertaining to listen to when you start playing the if game.

By his science, which is the Coaches/Harris/6 of the 7 computer sims factoring in, he has Bama ranked 1, LSU 2, and Florida 3. Also representing the SEC in his model is Auburn at 14, Ole Miss at 20, and UGA at 26. The thing he points to on the radio and on his site is that LSU is strong with the computer simulations. That is how they jumped Florida. Bama has held number 1 for a couple of weeks on his poll because the Tide have been ranked in the top 3 on the human side and running 2nd in most of the computer polls. Florida, on the other hand, has suffered greatly due to the computer polls. One poll has them 15th. Texas is dealing with the same issue that Florida has, they can't win the computer side. Call it deja vu or bad karma, but they are still in that place they were last year where a loss to someone could send their hopes out the door even if everyone else loses once.

I don't have much of a gripe about the human polls. I think some teams are ranked a little low, like Iowa and S Florida, and some are overrated like Va Tech and Ohio State. Overall, however, it isn't like they are playing God for the amusement of seeing USCal v. Texas or anything like that. The computer, however, gives way too much love to Iowa (who some rank 2nd behind LSU) and Auburn (3rd in one poll), and shut out South Florida, Penn St, and nearly cripple USCal.

The way the BCS looks as of now is that the SEC will again send 2 teams (Florida and the West champs) to the BCS championship and Sugar Bowl. Boise St looks like they are in, but the where is the trick. If Texas lost to OU, they move to 4th in the simulation and stand to be the other seed as of right now if UF lost to LSU and LSU lost to Bama. Virginia Tech controls their destiny as well, and really if you watch them enough, they should be in the BCS, but if you put them in the championship vs. the SEC champ, epic fail looms for viewing ratings. Iowa, USCal, and Cincy all have angles in but will need help. They will get some help because the top 3 won't stay there for much longer.

Confused yet? Wait it gets better. USC will more than likely get a better boost by beating Notre Dame, and Oregon and probably will jump Va Tech. Tech only has GT left as a "quality" opponent. If they both win out, one will probably jump an undefeated Boise St because Oregon loses to USC in this scenario, but the question is who is really more worthy? USCal who always shows up and shows out at the national level? Or, Va Tech who is only guilty of losing to Alabama? If Texas loses to OU, but wins the Big 12, have they earned the right then? If Iowa runs the table, and are the only other undefeated, what about them? The scenario for screwed is high again.....

Linebacker auditions week 2

Everyone is acting surprised by the news that some new faces are auditioning at different spots, but the secret that wasn't kept real well was that this was going on last week too. I think if you go back and read over the last year or if you remember the old posts on BOL and BM you probably remember that I've always wanted more depth building than what they've done over the last 3 years. I think that reality has started to sink in with the staff now as the loss of Smith, Caldwell, Davis, and now Hightower (not to mention McClain is probably out without a doubt come January) has left the program a little greener than what Saban would like. There is no doubt that those losses have been filled but not matched, but the opportunity is there for the staff to start building experience through the season by getting a whole host of names ready for 2010. So, with that here's the thing....

Sam- Reamer is the best option at Sam, but there are 2 things about that. First, they don't play their base 3-4 enough to keep him on the field there. Second, he's a senior and they'll be filling that gap again next season. He's played the Will in the past and probably has the best grasp of the coverage aspects of it in the Nickel formation because he played safety both at Hoover and at Bama. His top backups are Jerrell Harris and Eryk Anders. Both are physically ideal to play it and move well in space.

Mike- There isn't any issue here other than who is getting reps when McClain takes his helmet off in a blowout. Nico Johnson and Chris Jordan have been the primary backups in practice and both have seen limited PT up to now. I know a lot of folks keep thinking that Mike and Will are just identical, but they really aren't. Mike is the front 7 QB, so to speak, he is the guy who checks down and changes the assignments based on reads. Will is more of the floater who rushes, plays in space, covers TE's and/or backs. Learning is best starting at Will and then Mike. If you remember, McClain played a little of both his Freshman year. Out of the 2 freshmen, Nico probably fits the Mike mold better because he's not built as low to the ground and plays well in assignments (at least in the high school videos). So, when Hightower went down, it was common to think Nico would, and the staritis had its effect on that thinking, but he needs to be showcased as the Mike because he'll be there next year. Jordan has played it some as well in cleanup duty. Jordan isn't quite as natural a fit, but he is fast and moves well to the ball.

Will- Harris was the primary backup in the summer, but his suspension and lack of actual playing time leaves a real question mark for me. The pure speculation by the same people who assumed it was Nico 7 days ago doesn't help. The other issue is that he's not real bulky. Reamer isn't either, but he's got experience on his side to know how to work around the lack of bulk. Harris has speed to burn and is very athletic, but is very green. Patrick is green, but physically is a natural inside backer or future Jack if he continues to bulk. If Bama wants to play more base 3-4 and use the Will as a plug the hole guy, he may be used in short yardage or high percentage run situations. Patrick moves well but I don't think he saw a lot of pass coverage up at North Jackson. Also, does it send a good message that you break the rules and not really come forward when the coaches ask about the issue and get a starting job?

Jack- Here is where the issue really is. I know folks use the simple math route that if you subtract Hightower and add Reamer and that equals Kentucky running you to death, then it is by deduction Reamer's fault. The fault really was at Jack. Upshaw plays well as a rusher, but against the run, he doesn't change gears. He makes the same moves and takes the same angle (towards the QB and not the ball carrier). I think Upshaw has the build for the role, but the mental understanding is still lacking. Anders beat him out because of that and nobody could fill the Will position if Hightower played Jack full time. Anders has played very well as the Jack in base and nickel situations.

Now, with all that said, I still don't think it is imperative for the staff to change the starters completely. I think if they are concerned about teams running on them, to me it wasn't the formation or personnel but rather the lack of intensity in practice that caught them. I know some won't believe it, but go back and watch some of the lackluster games from the last 2 years (the 07 AU and 08 Sugar Bowl are good views for this subject) and compare the intensity.

In the 3-4, their best option is still the one they've used, but they have the opportunity to rotate some other guys like Johnson and Patrick into the game and let them learn through experience. I think that is where some fall off the boat with the use of the players is that they think if you are going to play, that translates into starting. The other thing is that folks instantly assume that because we (the fans and recruiting gurus) hold Patrick and Johnson in such high regards that they should start because we held McClain and Hightower in the same stature. That's true, but it also should bear mention that Rolo and Donta came in with little competition in front of them. Mustin and Hall were big bodies, but marginal SEC players. Beating or replacing them was not as tough a task as replacing McClain and Hightower will prove to be. Conversely, both of the two starters now were more in tune with the way Saban plays (Hightower especially) defense. That's not knocking either Johnson or Patrick or Jordan or Harris or anyone, but more of a "mad props" to how good Donta and Rolo are.

Here's some off the top of my head depth chart on situational basis that I could see work:

1st and 10, vs. I or 2 TE
E- Dareus
T- Cody
E- Washington

S- Anders
M- Rolo
W- Reamer
J- Upshaw

This is the current lineup, and on first and 10, they did fine. The issue was 3rd and long.

short yardage vs. I or 2TE

E- Deaderick
T- Cody
E- Washington

S- Reamer
M- Rolo
W- Patrick
J- Anders

The change up here is kinda simple, more power in the middle and speed on the corners. Kentucky got away with murder on 3rd downs running to the right tackle (at Upshaw and Arenas).

3 wide or 3rd and 10 situations

E- Dareus
T- Chapman
E- Washington
J- Anders

Mike- Rolo
Money- Barron/Reamer

C- Jackson
C- Johnson
Star- Arenas
FS- Green/Barron
SS- Woodall

Reamer is good in space, as is Barron, and both can do well covering LB assignments. Neither are great blitzers right now, Barron has potential to be with more coaching, but really the use of either is more relative to who they are playing and what their backs and TEs do. Reamer is better with more physical types and Barron is better with scat back types.

3 and 4 wide sets that are spread option based

Here comes the fun part. Against Auburn or Florida, I wouldn't go Nickel, maybe their Dime, but stay in the base and keep the Jack with his hand up.

E- Dareus
T- Cody
E- Washington

S- Reamer (assignment TE or H Back/Tailback or option read)
M- Rolo (shadow)
W- Barron (play more of the Money position not Will, cover slot WR)
J- Anders (option read or tailback/TE assignment)

C- Jackson (cover FL)
C- Arenas (cover SE)
FS- Green (cover 2)
SS- Woodall (cover 2)

The rotation is endless really.

Tebow isn't playing but UF will still win.

Here's why, LSU has 0 momentum on offense. None. Florida's defense is still very strong and comparing what they did to Kentucky and what Bama did still makes them the top D in the conference. LSU's defense is good and they have home field, but they have struggled mightily at home to be impressive on offense. Even with a backup QB, Florida's offense can chew clock and wear down the defense. LSU has to have a better offensive showing than they had against a weak UGA defense and I don't know that they will.

I wouldn't put UF on points, but I think they survive on the defense and running game over LSU's home field advantage.

Brett Farve can't retire fast enough

The love fest is great and all and last night's win on MNF was a moment in time, but at some point it has to stop. I tire of the endless is he back media circus. He eats up the attention and he's blessed to have the best running back in football to make life easy on his 40 something body. The Packers and Jets are happy as can be because they've got their respective futures in the works (Rodgers and Sanchez) and the Vikes get 1 year and then have to find their QB again.