Ok, let's have that heart to heart here guys...
Coaching Changes
In the last month, Bama has lost 2 coaches and 2 players that could have came back for 2009. While that does hurt to a degree, this is a part of football as is. With the competition and paychecks mounting year by year, the chances of keeping a solid staff in tact for long is unrealistic. Saban's staffs over the years have never been in tact for long and there always seems to be a couple that leave every year or 2. That's part of having a successful coach really and it causes gas to fans who got used to the same coaches hanging around during the Shula years, but the ends justify the means.
If you really think on it, and this is for those asking why he would go to UT, why wouldn't he? He was getting under payed compared to many on the Bama staff and other staffs being assembled when it got down to it. He can recruit the panties off a nun and coach them back up when he's done, no question. Don't think so, just check 2008's class (and 09) and look at how improved Fanney and Reamer were http://alabama.rivals.com/viewcoach.asp?Year=2008&Sport=1&Coach=968. The flip side, and this is something fans miss sometime, is that he bounces around from place to place. He's been to Bama 2x, Tech 2x, had a cup of coffee with LSU and UCF along the way too. He's like a lot of assistants and head coaches out there, he's kinda afraid to make roots because he might miss out.
So who replaces him? Honestly, I don't think that will be decided until early spring. Same for Kevin Steele's job. I don't think Saban works in a rush about this kind of thing and between his coaching tree and his mentor's tree, not to mention his agent's ties, there is always a list of names to cull through. I do think that he has a great chance to make some adjustments in the defensive philosophy through these changes, much like he did on offense last year. If you remember going into last winter, Major left and so did the TE coach. Saban took the time to get a proven OC and a good friend in Bobby Williams to coach TE and special teams. The results were self-evident for sure. Perhaps after the humbling realities from Florida and Utah, this can help re-invent how they use the Cover 2 and Zone Blitzes.
What is amusing about all this is how quickly the spin and distancing fans on these message boards do out there. Right now some of the fine titles gracing the Internets are:
"Saban is the X factor in recruiting, NOT Thompson"
"Thompson to UT.....wth?"
"He is supposedly an amazing recruiter, but lets be honest, Saban is the reason they commit to Bama! ROLL TIDE!"
yet while he was here, he was a recruiting God. Funny how that happens eh? In the end, it goes like this, do I like that he's going to Tennessee? No, and if he was going to Texas or Cal, fans would have a different tone about this issue by the way. Do I like that he left now and not in March or April? No, but when do you make staffing moves normally....January and February. Will this hurt the progress of the Saban rebuilding project? Probably not, but it will definitely make things a little harder in the mean time.
One guy sweating more than the others is Curt Cigneti. All of a sudden, he's gotta actually earn his way and not hide around quite as much. He's already in the bullpen a bit over how poorly the WR's not named Jones performed.....
Recruiting in general....
If you log on to one of the humpteen websites out there, you pretty well can count on 2 types of threads being popular and rehashed each morning. First one is about how the class finishes and who is in it. The second thread that seems to be looming around is how Program X is not this that or the next and all their guys should be thinking Bama, or how this coach or that coach is not as good as Saban.
That's all nice and I love the effort, but there is a little bit of reality that has to come into play. For example, I know the "insiders" are all over the page on some stuff, like Randle, and that has some reading into things a little harder than others. So, when the heat is on to get the must have, the earth will open up and swallow us all if we don't get him, cannot get an erection without this guy signing with Alabama starts to set in, the effort to talk yourself into how Tim Tebow, Caddy Williams, Marcus Manson, Brandon Spikes, etal. must come here and there is nothing else to it. Kinda like Christmas morning with no Red Ryder BB Gun, we've known this pain. Saban and staff are as good as it gets, no doubting that even with what's left of the staff, but there are just some factors that go into recruiting that Saban and co. cannot beat. The heartstrings of a momma's boy being one of them. Even the biggest and meanest of young men have the complex sometimes and won't leave state for all the potential in the world. That's not saying Randle or any others mentioned were or are momma's boys....well maybe Tebow he looks like he has a milk mustache still...but the draw to have mom and dad in the stands each home game and going home for holidays and seeing your boys after the game or during the week has a draw to it. There is also the fan factor. Some of these players have been life long fans of some teams. Tebow as a Florida guy, but Shula thought he could be the next Pope John Paul or something. Fail.
For what it is worth, I'd put down the following to finish out with just on what I read in articles and hear from bankers in TTown:
Kelly
Kirkpatrick
Moore
Patrick
Stinson
Patterson
Do you notice 4 out of 6 are home state boys? Mommas win championships too. What proof or science is there to it? Not a damn thing, just like the others. Is there one of those 6 that they can't live without? Yep. Patterson. Last year it was Zo Lawrence, this year it is a MS WR. He's got game with his peers and isn't a freak athlete in a small town thing, that I like.
Now, on the flip side there is this poor mouthing USCal, LSU, Florida, and whomever else is hot in recruiting that day. I'm ok with just playful bullshit, but some of this theorizing in recruiting is just absurd. Today's lesson in cerebral assassination was that Pete Carroll was not in the same class as Saban and Meyer (surprised he got promoted to listen to some) as recruiters go. Now, outside of Saban and Bryant, there aren't many coaches I hold in higher regard than Pete Carroll. Carroll was not a great pro coach, but neither was Saban or Petrino or Spurrier. The college level is a fit for Carroll just like it is for those mentioned. USCal went from near Navy/Army extinction to national power on his watch. He's created the dominance and unmerciful pummeling that happens out west now. Any top end recruit that he wants, it is his to lose. That's what Saban is working towards at Bama. If you want to see the long term model for Saban's "Process" visit USCal to see the pipeline and daily dominance of the region in all phases of football. He also is about as good a person as you can be around off the field. Most probably don't know it, but if you saw 60 Minutes interview him you do, but he's a big part of the LA community. No, he isn't at Spagos or wherever Lindsey and Paris are, but that other part of town...Compton and Crenshaw. He said early on he saw the devastation of gang violence in the community and felt he had to do his part. So, he goes to these rough areas talking to kids and teens about gangs, drugs, violence, and the better life there. He takes those kids to practice to get star struck and tries to mentor them and shoot them straight. While that may impress you on its own merits, it gets better. He does this at night. No police escorts or bodyguards, just him and some others trying to talk to these guys and make a difference. He's winning in life not just football in my book and if my boy wanted to play for him, I wouldn't slight him just because I know he'd make a difference in his life if my boy let him.
Then there is how big a liar Urban Meyer is. The fact he uses politcalesque tactics to recruit away from other programs may give you a moral problem, but it doesn't him. Wouldn't me either really, you are paid to do a job, he's doing his and the results back that up with 2 national titles, consistent recruiting talent, and a pool of NFL ready players seemingly every August. They are about to get to that point where a down year is 10-2. Yes he can stay in state and get all the talent in the world, but that doesn't make it that easy. Just ask Ron Zook. Talent doesn't just win for itself. It has to fit in and work for what you want it to. Meyer's spread may not be the NFL friendly offense that Carroll's is, but it is putting guys in the spotlight and getting them drafted, and it is winning games. That's the difference in Meyer and a guy like Richt or Fulmer is that he gets the guys that can fit in his offense and defenses and not just the name list that Rivals or Scout or whomever provides.
Then there is Les Miles, you know the idiot savant. Miles as a coach is not in the elite area, and probably never will be. However, he does seem to do what Tubberville did well for a while, he gets assistants that keep him out of trouble. He also has a state that he can in state 25 if able, but has had success in Texas and Florida on occasion. Is he a super recruiter like Carroll or Saban or Meyer or Bowden used to be? No. Does he suck like Shula? No. The biggest thing that Miles does is put the ring out show he can win, show he can make NFL talent at OSU and LSU, and let the atmospher of Death Valley do its part. There are few things that rival the intensity and atmospher of Baton Rouge on a Fall Saturday night. The jury will be answering the question of his prowess in the next year or two though. He'll have the talent taken in but can he coach it to win. We'll see. Mr Hat may be smug, but like one guy pointed out, he's not lost many that he's offered to officially or not. Those mommas recruit championships too.
So I can read your mind and you are going to say Saban must suck in my mind. Stop sifting around. My mind thinks in a variety of things but Saban sucking hasn't been one. Saban is a lot like Carroll in his philosophy and he has his way and that is the only way one of his teams will go. He knows the rules, he works through them, and even creates some over time because he will make it his job to win, that's what his paycheck says. He's demanding like Carroll. He's 24/7/365 about his job and developing his program, and that takes a lot to get used to as an assistant and a player. That's a hinderance for some (Thompson/Applewhite/Steele) and a perk to others (see all the recruits). Saban isn't sifting through Forrest Davis magazine for his players, he's watching their film, putting scouts on the ground and getting reports back to him. He's trusting his instinct on talent evaluation for the most part. If he retires and goes into recruiting analysis, I'll drop my subscriptions to buy his. Saban knows his system and way will win, he's got the ring to show that. However, catching lightning twice in two different jars is harder than most accept it to be. He'd be the first if he does.
Really, recruiting is kinda silly though. You get all up in the air about 25 guys coming to school, out of which maybe 18-20 pan out, 7-10 are real starters from that group, and then that's when I'd evaluate the class is at the end of the 3-5 years there. The other funny thing is folks praise you for getting an Andre Smith or Julio Jones or Nico Johnson type guy, but really if they grew up a Bama fan or fell in love with the school, did it take a genius to make that happen? Sometimes I guess, but you or I could have gotten Jay Barker or Brodie Croyle to sign with the school their heart tugged them to.
Basketball, I'd rather watch Baseketball....
I don't watch the games unless there is nothing else on. I hate that I've gotten that way now, but it just isn't healthy to get mad at something you know will make you that way before you start. I could beat a dead horse about the problems going on down there with Gottfried, but I won't. The two things that really are just out there that cannot be explained are that the attendance for home games sucks and the quality of the teams after all this time have regressed. There isn't a flu pandemic or an NCAA infraction causing these things. It is just plain ol bad is bad sports. Both gripe me, but the fact that the school spent good money to renovate Coleman and this is what we get is inflated football ticket prices and .500 basketball just ain't it. The SEC as a whole is down in basketball, they will be lucky to have a team in the top 12 or 15. That bothers me because if the NCAA Tournament takes 5-6 SEC teams, and Bama's one, does that earn the right to stay one more year if you go 8-8 in conference? I fear it will because Mal's capacity to understand his overall job is not there. How OU, Texas, UT, and others can have good football and basketball and Bama can't scratch its own ahem basketballs is beyond me.
January 15, 2009
January 5, 2009
The Good (not much), The Bad (too many to count) and The Ugly- Utah
Well, if you are in shock, you shouldn't be. This game has been coming for a while and it caught up to them. The truth be told this was a team that overachieved against a host of underachievers and when they met 2 teams that weren't in that genre, the losses ensued. I knew things were bad when Smith's suspension happened, and then around New Years, Saban had a news conference that just seemed off, and with the Steele news swirling, it was pretty clear that football practice was not 1st on the menu.
The Good...damn I'll struggle to find this one....
Arenas punt return
Sadly, this was the only play that really had any spark to it. It was great to see him play with his head on straight and want to play. That was something missing from several others on the field.
Bobby Greenwood
Most of you like to say "when X takes over", but folks, I don't think you can replace Greenwood with anyone on campus and gain from it or even break even right now. He played like he wanted it, he played like he knew this is how he'd go down in our memories, and he played like he wanted to win. He's going to be remembered by me for chasing down the ball carrier 20 yards down field after his teammates quit on the play.
The lessons learned for....
Andre Smith- It must not have hurt that bad to see how he let his team down because he didn't waste time declaring for the NFL. My hope was that he'd see his impact on the team and regardless of what he did, he'd be better for it. You wondered why Tony Barnhart said what he did, this is why.
Kevin Steele- When you are pimping yourself for a lateral move, you still need to hold up the job you have until you are gone. Mission failed. As far as I can tell, they still haven't come up with a scheme or philosophy that can defend a true spread offense. You know that gimmicky offense that can't work? Oops.
Bama fans- Arrogance dripped for weeks as Bama was number 1, then going to the Sugar Bowl against a team deemed unworthy by them, it was a recipe for an ass whooping. Yes, Bama should have came in and taken care of the business, but you still have to show up and do what you do each and every day. Most chalked this up and were ready to move on to how 09 was the year that Bama starts on top and finishes on top. Oops. The spin will be spring and summer eternal, but the truth is that we all enabled what happened by raising our noses to Utah. Our noses are now in the pig shit, and that's where it needs to stay until further notice.
The Bad....I'll try to limit it....maybe
OL Play
Yes, Andre Smith is a special player. Yes, his loss hurt and made things harder. However, it should not have resulted in a fruit basket turnover up front. Mike Johnson at LT was not going to work and he was spared by the ankle sprain. Davis wasn't any better, but it does bring up a problem that they continue to have. They don't seem to have a backup plan anywhere on the pages. There would be a drop off from Smith to whomever, but whomever shouldn't be a starter at another position. As is, what you saw in the Sugar Bowl would be close to a carbon copy of what the 2009 OL would be like. Oh hell. Now, before you start in on Fluker and Massie and Carpenter and on and on, think just a little. It is easy to expect a true freshman to come in and play just like he did in high school, but it is easier thought than said and done. All have great upside, but none have been exposed to the speed that is out there. Don't hang the moon and stars and hopes and dreams on them just yet. But pray they can do better than what's there now because McElroy will need more than what Ross and Davis and co have to offer.
QB Play
The real John Parker finally stood up. And then he was knocked down, over and over and over and over and over...you get the hint. Many wanted all sorts of praise for Wilson about a month ago. You won't find them around any more. JPW is a nice play caller hand the ball off and go type of guy. Much like Chad Pennington is for the Dolphins or Trent Dilfer was for the Ravens. Neither have to win games, just let the defense do its thing and then make just enough plays to contribute. That's JPW in a nutshell, don't ask him to win it, just ask him to control it. Friday night was not that game. It was obvious early that Utah had done its homework. They sent 9 guys in the box and then when it was a have to pass down, they went after him too. Wilson continued to do the one thing that just kills me, he holds the ball forever waiting for his target (usually Julio) to get open. Folks will say he was tough and durable and all those adjectives, but after watching the Sugar Bowl, he brought a lot of those hits on himself by not being able to make a decision fast enough. When he did throw it, it was like a gun out of sight on the range. Some were high, some were low, some were left, some were right and some went to who the heck knows. He over shot Stover once, and under threw him the second time and missed the best two chances Bama was going to get. It was a good summary for his 3 years as QB. The loss wasn't his fault though, it was a team loss from coaching down to jock strap cleaner.
Secondary woes
The game plan was real easy for Utah. Where's 24 and where's 26? If you drew those lotto numbers, congratulations Utah WR, you got the ball. Here's the scouting for anyone playing Alabama, take your speed guys, match them on the outside, not slot, and ask them to run a deep slant or out and up and force slower corners to play up to you. Jackson and M. Johnson both lack the foot speed to fix themselves in the event they mis-read or misjudge the play. Utah exposed it over and over with all the corners, minus Arenas, and exposed that the vaunted cover 2 has holes that the spread can expose.
The Ugly....
Special teams play minus Arenas.
Let's be honest, Tiffin would have lost his job already if his name wasn't Tiffin. We all know that now, he continues to be unreliable and shaky when it isn't dead center of the field. The punting is a boom or shank fest depending on the day, lunar cycle, or whatever dictates it. The fact that this is the best Bama can get and it doesn't improve itself from game 1 to now both disturb me to no end.
Random Thoughts....
Saban's got a lot of work to do still. Going 12 and 0 took the reality of it all out of the equation for us. The truth is that there are so many gaps to fill still that the "Process" may be a longer one than hoped. The OL is far from stable or competitive. The secondary is slow and gaped. The DL lacks power when in the dime or coverage situations. The WR core is Julio and the dropouts (see McCoy's PT) and that causes concern for us all. This senior class caught lightning in a bottle for 12 weeks, but it showed a trend that was familiar and disturbing. Once the dream is gone, so too seems to be the focus on the rest of the year. With LSU last year and Florida this year, the team seemed to spiral aimlessly into chaos after the dream was gone. In 07, the SEC West title was gone with the loss to LSU (note the proper usage of loss not loose) and this year with the BCS and SEC title gone with the loss to Florida, the talk was cheap and the practices didn't look all that passionate. That's something that the coaches need to address because it will be a continuous stumbling block if allowed to continue.
With all the coaching turmoil this month, it would be a good time for Saban to revamp his cover 2 and the pass defense strategies. Much like the Tampa 2, Saban's 2 is getting plenty of film study and teams are starting to expose it more with speed and execution. The morale of the Sugar Bowl from the defense is that the principles still hold true. If you cover, you better cover. If you bring pressure, you better get him. They didn't do either extremely well. The end result is getting mauled down the field play after play. You can send 4 and drop 7 and get pressure, you just have to know your players and call the schemes that get them in the face of the QB. If you can't with 4, you better send 5 or 6 and make it work.
Looking Ahead...
QB- Thomas Darrah will NOT be the QB next year. I'm so sick of seeing that heading on the damn message boards. What's funny is that a guy that threw a nice pass on 4th string walkon scrubs in a practice game gets more folklore than the guy who threw a nice pass in the 4th quarter against the biggest rival. Are you Darrah for QB fans retarded? Or just NCAA09 enthusiasts? I really want the slowest biggest target playing behind a patchwork OL. McElroy is the QB going in, should hold it through Spring and will through Summer because AJ McCarron will redshirt. I watched him play and he needs a lot of coaching and time in the film room to mature to his big arm. Star Jackson will be Greg's main competition, but from what I've seen and friends close to things say, he's not ready for prime time yet. He's the typical young QB, can hit targets all day and night, until you start mixing in defenders and throwing some surprises at him. I'd say he gets some snaps in the 1st string to see apples to apples, but McElroy will be the starter. I think if they develop a game plan around him and not the conservative game manager routine, he might surprise you.
RB- If the Sugar Bowl is any indication, Glen Coffee is not coming back. I thought he ran a little more timid than usual and really looked like he was trying to protect himself, up until he got folded by the pass rush. Trent Richardson will probably start to steam the windows a bit and regardless of what Coffee does, Ingram and Richardson will get more carries in 09 than the backups in 08 did. As big a fan of Upchurch as I am, he's probably done and Terry Grant is done too. I won't miss Grant much and neither should you.
WR- Julio Jones will miss Nikita Stover if they don't sign a prime time WR. The returning cast will not give much hope or optimism this spring because McCoy is lost, Hanks is a possession guy, Maze may be on the way out after another bone head play, Gibson can't find the field, Alexander can't stay healthy and plays like he's 5-11. Nobody will miss Nick Walker, who also played like he was shorter and lighter than he was, because Peek and Smelley will fill in fine, but you will pine for Travis McCall unless Michael Williams (the only true Jack on the roster is now at TE) can step up. It isn't any secret on the recruiting trail, if you sign with Bama to play WR, you'll start. You can't suck any worse than those holding your spot.
OL- It ain't Dixie they are singing on the O Line. Mike Johnson returns, as does Drew Davis (oh boy!) but gone are Smith, Caldwell, and Marlon Davis. Fluker all but has his jersey and 1st string decoder ring ready, but from there, it gets iffy. I like Fluker, think he has a lot of raw talent and athleticism, and that's what he's getting by on, but his understanding of the position is still very young and there are times he looks like he's playing LT for the first time. He won't be like Andre Smith coming in because he hasn't got the experience. It will be a work in progress. James Carpenter will get a solid look at RG or RT as Davis still can't progress to the next level at lineman. Boswell is the best of the young linemen going into next fall and should compete at RG too. David Ross is a backup, nothing more or less. Vlachos is a backup as well. His snaps are short and his blocking is serviceable but nothing to write home about. Cardwell either has too many injuries to compete or is in the doghouse for some undisclosed reason. It isn't his capacity to play though. For those wanting to say he got beat up in the bowl game, by that point he was playing half speed with the back issues. I take it they aren't any better. So the Center spot is a who knows for now. Good luck to Greg, he'll need it and I hope his knees are good and loose. (the proper usage of the word)
DL- Greenwood is gone, and the heart and soul goes with it. I don't know that Zo Washington is the answer, but he'll replace him in the front. Cody should return, he needs to at least, and hopefully the coaches will take time to show him how to become more effective as a pass rusher. As a run stopper, Cody is 1st round material, as a pass rusher, he is a mid level player. If he wants to be the well rounded do all player, he's got to use his gifts to push forward and disrupt plays more. Yes they will double team him, but if he gets off the line faster and on top of the guard/center fast enough, that won't matter. Deaderick will be at end again, and at some point he's got to start being more than a space taker. Some plays call for the ends and NG to just take up lanes (space), but others require a little more effort. Dareus will be the key reserve and after a quick start, he became quite average. He needs a lot of polishing still and some understanding of how to play at the college level. Chapman continues to be the here then not out there guy, for some reason. I think he plays well and is a better pass rusher than the others. I guess he doesn't do it for somebody in practice. They need a lot of help up front with players that are bigger and stronger than what they have. The 3-4 requires ends at 275+ and NT 300+ that clog and move the line back. The issue is the Jack is ineffective and it causes more focus on the DL.
LB- A pleasant surprise most of the season, and should improve next year with McClain and Hightower seasoning another year. Fanney is the Jack until beaten, but he is limited and not the ideal Jack in how the defense needs to be played. He's fine as a run stopper, but his pass rush is non-existent. Reamer plays about 30 percent of the time. With teams continuing to stretch the field, he won't play. The reserves are all either too young, too small, or too short on talent to be expected on next year. Upshaw is the Internet favorite, but after watching him play off end Friday, he won't be the Jack of all trades by spring. He needs a lot of bulking up to do what he would need to do at Jack, he's ready at Sam today though. Jerrell Harris, Prince Hall, Kirschman, Higgenbotham, Hester, and others seem to be part players in the big scheme of things. Anders is a nice rush back, but he doesn't do well in coverage and to be competitive in the long run, he'll have to do both because teams can scout well enough to know he's blitzing when he's in. This position is the area that attrition will be centered on as several prior coach signees will be pushed to take up new career paths. Mingo, if they can sign him, would be an ideal Jack candidate if Williams is not moved back.
DB- They will miss RJ badly as Woodall hasn't caught on to the field general part of the job yet. They are going to have to overhaul the philosophy and style of player though to compete at the national level. Jackson, Johnson, and Arenas are all good in SEC traditional settings. However, when Florida or any other speed team comes, it is just a mess. Jackson and Johnson are fine in short spaces, but lack the foot speed and vision to cover long fast plays. Arenas playing in the nickel back is adequate because in the middle of the field, speed is not as needed as awareness is. I would look for the staff to begin looking to the younger guys for a spark here. Zo Lawrence and Robbie Green both will get a long look at some fashion of corner play because MJ and ASh are not the options in the future. Mark Barron got his first real taste of game action in the Sugar Bowl and looked like a guy who had not been practicing for the job. That's not his fault as much as the coach's. He has loads of potential, but he got a valuable OJT moment or 4 in the game. He'll learn from it and hopefully can fill in nicely at SS.
Specialists- I really could care less if any returned or not. The 400 pound pink elephant on the field has been the kicking game all year because you couldn't tell if it was a good day or bad day for them. I would be shocked if there isn't a serious competition for both spots this spring.
The Good...damn I'll struggle to find this one....
Arenas punt return
Sadly, this was the only play that really had any spark to it. It was great to see him play with his head on straight and want to play. That was something missing from several others on the field.
Bobby Greenwood
Most of you like to say "when X takes over", but folks, I don't think you can replace Greenwood with anyone on campus and gain from it or even break even right now. He played like he wanted it, he played like he knew this is how he'd go down in our memories, and he played like he wanted to win. He's going to be remembered by me for chasing down the ball carrier 20 yards down field after his teammates quit on the play.
The lessons learned for....
Andre Smith- It must not have hurt that bad to see how he let his team down because he didn't waste time declaring for the NFL. My hope was that he'd see his impact on the team and regardless of what he did, he'd be better for it. You wondered why Tony Barnhart said what he did, this is why.
Kevin Steele- When you are pimping yourself for a lateral move, you still need to hold up the job you have until you are gone. Mission failed. As far as I can tell, they still haven't come up with a scheme or philosophy that can defend a true spread offense. You know that gimmicky offense that can't work? Oops.
Bama fans- Arrogance dripped for weeks as Bama was number 1, then going to the Sugar Bowl against a team deemed unworthy by them, it was a recipe for an ass whooping. Yes, Bama should have came in and taken care of the business, but you still have to show up and do what you do each and every day. Most chalked this up and were ready to move on to how 09 was the year that Bama starts on top and finishes on top. Oops. The spin will be spring and summer eternal, but the truth is that we all enabled what happened by raising our noses to Utah. Our noses are now in the pig shit, and that's where it needs to stay until further notice.
The Bad....I'll try to limit it....maybe
OL Play
Yes, Andre Smith is a special player. Yes, his loss hurt and made things harder. However, it should not have resulted in a fruit basket turnover up front. Mike Johnson at LT was not going to work and he was spared by the ankle sprain. Davis wasn't any better, but it does bring up a problem that they continue to have. They don't seem to have a backup plan anywhere on the pages. There would be a drop off from Smith to whomever, but whomever shouldn't be a starter at another position. As is, what you saw in the Sugar Bowl would be close to a carbon copy of what the 2009 OL would be like. Oh hell. Now, before you start in on Fluker and Massie and Carpenter and on and on, think just a little. It is easy to expect a true freshman to come in and play just like he did in high school, but it is easier thought than said and done. All have great upside, but none have been exposed to the speed that is out there. Don't hang the moon and stars and hopes and dreams on them just yet. But pray they can do better than what's there now because McElroy will need more than what Ross and Davis and co have to offer.
QB Play
The real John Parker finally stood up. And then he was knocked down, over and over and over and over and over...you get the hint. Many wanted all sorts of praise for Wilson about a month ago. You won't find them around any more. JPW is a nice play caller hand the ball off and go type of guy. Much like Chad Pennington is for the Dolphins or Trent Dilfer was for the Ravens. Neither have to win games, just let the defense do its thing and then make just enough plays to contribute. That's JPW in a nutshell, don't ask him to win it, just ask him to control it. Friday night was not that game. It was obvious early that Utah had done its homework. They sent 9 guys in the box and then when it was a have to pass down, they went after him too. Wilson continued to do the one thing that just kills me, he holds the ball forever waiting for his target (usually Julio) to get open. Folks will say he was tough and durable and all those adjectives, but after watching the Sugar Bowl, he brought a lot of those hits on himself by not being able to make a decision fast enough. When he did throw it, it was like a gun out of sight on the range. Some were high, some were low, some were left, some were right and some went to who the heck knows. He over shot Stover once, and under threw him the second time and missed the best two chances Bama was going to get. It was a good summary for his 3 years as QB. The loss wasn't his fault though, it was a team loss from coaching down to jock strap cleaner.
Secondary woes
The game plan was real easy for Utah. Where's 24 and where's 26? If you drew those lotto numbers, congratulations Utah WR, you got the ball. Here's the scouting for anyone playing Alabama, take your speed guys, match them on the outside, not slot, and ask them to run a deep slant or out and up and force slower corners to play up to you. Jackson and M. Johnson both lack the foot speed to fix themselves in the event they mis-read or misjudge the play. Utah exposed it over and over with all the corners, minus Arenas, and exposed that the vaunted cover 2 has holes that the spread can expose.
The Ugly....
Special teams play minus Arenas.
Let's be honest, Tiffin would have lost his job already if his name wasn't Tiffin. We all know that now, he continues to be unreliable and shaky when it isn't dead center of the field. The punting is a boom or shank fest depending on the day, lunar cycle, or whatever dictates it. The fact that this is the best Bama can get and it doesn't improve itself from game 1 to now both disturb me to no end.
Random Thoughts....
Saban's got a lot of work to do still. Going 12 and 0 took the reality of it all out of the equation for us. The truth is that there are so many gaps to fill still that the "Process" may be a longer one than hoped. The OL is far from stable or competitive. The secondary is slow and gaped. The DL lacks power when in the dime or coverage situations. The WR core is Julio and the dropouts (see McCoy's PT) and that causes concern for us all. This senior class caught lightning in a bottle for 12 weeks, but it showed a trend that was familiar and disturbing. Once the dream is gone, so too seems to be the focus on the rest of the year. With LSU last year and Florida this year, the team seemed to spiral aimlessly into chaos after the dream was gone. In 07, the SEC West title was gone with the loss to LSU (note the proper usage of loss not loose) and this year with the BCS and SEC title gone with the loss to Florida, the talk was cheap and the practices didn't look all that passionate. That's something that the coaches need to address because it will be a continuous stumbling block if allowed to continue.
With all the coaching turmoil this month, it would be a good time for Saban to revamp his cover 2 and the pass defense strategies. Much like the Tampa 2, Saban's 2 is getting plenty of film study and teams are starting to expose it more with speed and execution. The morale of the Sugar Bowl from the defense is that the principles still hold true. If you cover, you better cover. If you bring pressure, you better get him. They didn't do either extremely well. The end result is getting mauled down the field play after play. You can send 4 and drop 7 and get pressure, you just have to know your players and call the schemes that get them in the face of the QB. If you can't with 4, you better send 5 or 6 and make it work.
Looking Ahead...
QB- Thomas Darrah will NOT be the QB next year. I'm so sick of seeing that heading on the damn message boards. What's funny is that a guy that threw a nice pass on 4th string walkon scrubs in a practice game gets more folklore than the guy who threw a nice pass in the 4th quarter against the biggest rival. Are you Darrah for QB fans retarded? Or just NCAA09 enthusiasts? I really want the slowest biggest target playing behind a patchwork OL. McElroy is the QB going in, should hold it through Spring and will through Summer because AJ McCarron will redshirt. I watched him play and he needs a lot of coaching and time in the film room to mature to his big arm. Star Jackson will be Greg's main competition, but from what I've seen and friends close to things say, he's not ready for prime time yet. He's the typical young QB, can hit targets all day and night, until you start mixing in defenders and throwing some surprises at him. I'd say he gets some snaps in the 1st string to see apples to apples, but McElroy will be the starter. I think if they develop a game plan around him and not the conservative game manager routine, he might surprise you.
RB- If the Sugar Bowl is any indication, Glen Coffee is not coming back. I thought he ran a little more timid than usual and really looked like he was trying to protect himself, up until he got folded by the pass rush. Trent Richardson will probably start to steam the windows a bit and regardless of what Coffee does, Ingram and Richardson will get more carries in 09 than the backups in 08 did. As big a fan of Upchurch as I am, he's probably done and Terry Grant is done too. I won't miss Grant much and neither should you.
WR- Julio Jones will miss Nikita Stover if they don't sign a prime time WR. The returning cast will not give much hope or optimism this spring because McCoy is lost, Hanks is a possession guy, Maze may be on the way out after another bone head play, Gibson can't find the field, Alexander can't stay healthy and plays like he's 5-11. Nobody will miss Nick Walker, who also played like he was shorter and lighter than he was, because Peek and Smelley will fill in fine, but you will pine for Travis McCall unless Michael Williams (the only true Jack on the roster is now at TE) can step up. It isn't any secret on the recruiting trail, if you sign with Bama to play WR, you'll start. You can't suck any worse than those holding your spot.
OL- It ain't Dixie they are singing on the O Line. Mike Johnson returns, as does Drew Davis (oh boy!) but gone are Smith, Caldwell, and Marlon Davis. Fluker all but has his jersey and 1st string decoder ring ready, but from there, it gets iffy. I like Fluker, think he has a lot of raw talent and athleticism, and that's what he's getting by on, but his understanding of the position is still very young and there are times he looks like he's playing LT for the first time. He won't be like Andre Smith coming in because he hasn't got the experience. It will be a work in progress. James Carpenter will get a solid look at RG or RT as Davis still can't progress to the next level at lineman. Boswell is the best of the young linemen going into next fall and should compete at RG too. David Ross is a backup, nothing more or less. Vlachos is a backup as well. His snaps are short and his blocking is serviceable but nothing to write home about. Cardwell either has too many injuries to compete or is in the doghouse for some undisclosed reason. It isn't his capacity to play though. For those wanting to say he got beat up in the bowl game, by that point he was playing half speed with the back issues. I take it they aren't any better. So the Center spot is a who knows for now. Good luck to Greg, he'll need it and I hope his knees are good and loose. (the proper usage of the word)
DL- Greenwood is gone, and the heart and soul goes with it. I don't know that Zo Washington is the answer, but he'll replace him in the front. Cody should return, he needs to at least, and hopefully the coaches will take time to show him how to become more effective as a pass rusher. As a run stopper, Cody is 1st round material, as a pass rusher, he is a mid level player. If he wants to be the well rounded do all player, he's got to use his gifts to push forward and disrupt plays more. Yes they will double team him, but if he gets off the line faster and on top of the guard/center fast enough, that won't matter. Deaderick will be at end again, and at some point he's got to start being more than a space taker. Some plays call for the ends and NG to just take up lanes (space), but others require a little more effort. Dareus will be the key reserve and after a quick start, he became quite average. He needs a lot of polishing still and some understanding of how to play at the college level. Chapman continues to be the here then not out there guy, for some reason. I think he plays well and is a better pass rusher than the others. I guess he doesn't do it for somebody in practice. They need a lot of help up front with players that are bigger and stronger than what they have. The 3-4 requires ends at 275+ and NT 300+ that clog and move the line back. The issue is the Jack is ineffective and it causes more focus on the DL.
LB- A pleasant surprise most of the season, and should improve next year with McClain and Hightower seasoning another year. Fanney is the Jack until beaten, but he is limited and not the ideal Jack in how the defense needs to be played. He's fine as a run stopper, but his pass rush is non-existent. Reamer plays about 30 percent of the time. With teams continuing to stretch the field, he won't play. The reserves are all either too young, too small, or too short on talent to be expected on next year. Upshaw is the Internet favorite, but after watching him play off end Friday, he won't be the Jack of all trades by spring. He needs a lot of bulking up to do what he would need to do at Jack, he's ready at Sam today though. Jerrell Harris, Prince Hall, Kirschman, Higgenbotham, Hester, and others seem to be part players in the big scheme of things. Anders is a nice rush back, but he doesn't do well in coverage and to be competitive in the long run, he'll have to do both because teams can scout well enough to know he's blitzing when he's in. This position is the area that attrition will be centered on as several prior coach signees will be pushed to take up new career paths. Mingo, if they can sign him, would be an ideal Jack candidate if Williams is not moved back.
DB- They will miss RJ badly as Woodall hasn't caught on to the field general part of the job yet. They are going to have to overhaul the philosophy and style of player though to compete at the national level. Jackson, Johnson, and Arenas are all good in SEC traditional settings. However, when Florida or any other speed team comes, it is just a mess. Jackson and Johnson are fine in short spaces, but lack the foot speed and vision to cover long fast plays. Arenas playing in the nickel back is adequate because in the middle of the field, speed is not as needed as awareness is. I would look for the staff to begin looking to the younger guys for a spark here. Zo Lawrence and Robbie Green both will get a long look at some fashion of corner play because MJ and ASh are not the options in the future. Mark Barron got his first real taste of game action in the Sugar Bowl and looked like a guy who had not been practicing for the job. That's not his fault as much as the coach's. He has loads of potential, but he got a valuable OJT moment or 4 in the game. He'll learn from it and hopefully can fill in nicely at SS.
Specialists- I really could care less if any returned or not. The 400 pound pink elephant on the field has been the kicking game all year because you couldn't tell if it was a good day or bad day for them. I would be shocked if there isn't a serious competition for both spots this spring.
December 8, 2008
The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly- Florida
Well, if you wanted to see the difference between a championship team and a good team, you got the Cliff's Notes version Saturday. What is funny is when you go to your favorite sites, you will see the jealousy masked in comments about Tebow and Meyer. Bottom line, those two are big time player/coach and all the griping about the Spread not winning and all that has to die now. They won. Period.
The Good...
3rd Quarter
I really liked the mentality coming out of the half. They reset and went back to their basic offense- north south running and play action short passing, and they attacked on defense. They kept Florida off the field and chewed up massive amounts of clock while they shut out Florida 10-0 in the 3rd. By the end of the 3rd, the momentum and game were in Bama's court. It just went away at the start of the 4th...
Individual efforts
Justin Woodall, Hightower, McClain, Fanney, Greenwood, Coffee, and Julio Jones all played championship level ball Saturday. I thought the option played well into Fanney's strength (run defense) and they went at him for a bit only to find out he's solid on the corner. Really, I thought the line/LB's played well overall, they didn't get ran over, but you can't beat a 5 man front as good as UF's with 4 guys. I thought Woodall understood the Spread Option well and was in position for most of the night. He didn't shy away from hitting Tebow either, speaking of which, RJ probably would like to not hit Tebow anytime soon, he got rung when the big boy lowered his shoulder to him.
The Julio Jones Celebrity Hour
It was another night of Wilson high right passing. Against Florida's safeties, that means you are going to get popped and it's gonna hurt. Jones likes contact, there ain't much doubting that, but he went after several passes that were just off. Jones makes Wilson look better than he is really, but all good WR do, and he's going to make McElroy better because he goes over the middle and QB's like to throw down the pipe and put it up to where the WR climbs the ladder and gets it. The nice thing is that he's just a freshman and he already plays at a 3rd or 4th year player level.
Gritty effort
Some folks had Florida winning in OU fashion. Some said that Bama couldn't play with Florida. Bama proved it deserved to be there and put their best effort on it, there wasn't a player that didn't give his effort to the game, but sometimes, there are just better teams out there across from you. Florida was that team.
The Bad...
First series on both sides of the ball
If you read the Random Thoughts, you know I thought that Bama had to keep the ball and then get 3 and outs where they can. The first drives of the game weren't that by a long shot. I guess the thing that I didn't like was that when Florida got the ball, Bama looked confused as to what was coming. It was pretty obvious after about the 3rd or 4th play that they weren't going to stop them on that drive. The best thing that could have happened was to get off the field, regroup and start over.
4th quarter
It is rare that Bama doesn't own or pull even in the 4th on teams, even when the Shula teams sucked, but on Saturday when the last round was ready, Florida answered the bell, Bama didn't. 1 yard total offense vs. 14 points tells a story in itself.
CBS ejaculating over Tebow-mania
I don't have a problem with Tebow (more on him later), but I do have a problem with how Tebow is done by CBS. That's where my complaint over Tebow would be is in the constant drum beat by Verne and Gary each and every play. Yes, Tim Tebow is a phenomenal player and he is one of the best leaders I've ever seen, but when he's not on the field, I don't need to be reminded about him.
Javier Arenas
I don't call out players much, at least not directly, but this one has to be. You could see it in his body language, his head wasn't in the game or the team, it was about him showing off against Florida, mission failed. I've mentioned several times that he's the kinda guy that can win a game for you, and he can lose it for you. Saturday, he made about 4 key errors that played into the loss. At some point the staff will lose its patience with Arenas because it is all about the big play and ESPN moment with him and not making the right play every time. Arenas is extremely talented, and he's been big at times, but as we all knew going in, the special teams needed to be solid in all phases, and Arenas' play definitely was a factor.
Tight play calling
Florida's defense is good, I wouldn't call it the best Bama's seen this year, but it is good. I thought Bama's play calling contributed to them looking better than they were though. There were times where it felt like the game's decisions were being vetted 3 or 4 times before it happened like they were trying to out smart Florida and Strong. Why? You beat teams with your game, not the game that you think will win. I liked a lot of what they did during the game, but there were times where it just left a lot to be desired. For example, Bama gets the short field on a punt and penalty, Bama motors down to the red zone and then just stalls out because they call plays that ran straight into Florida's strengths. Of course Ingram cut the wrong way on one, but that was one play in 3 that didn't work.
The Ugly...
Special Teams blunders
Did you ever feel like you were in Groundhog's Day? I bet Saban has felt that for 10 out of 13 weeks where there have been gaffes in the special teams that have changed the momentum and progress of the game. While it wasn't the coach's call to fake the kick, why would it be an option with your punter and kicker? A backup QB or a WR, I could see, but that duo wouldn't get 10 yards on a high school team. My hope is that they will take a lot of time to review where the special teams are going and decide how they want to address it because it is old now.
Random Thoughts
Is Tim Tebow the greatest player ever? For starts, that is a subjective question that an answer is based on your emotion and concept of what makes one great. I'll say this, he's one damn good player and probably the best in the modern BCS cable generation of players. I think the underlying thought that comes in Tebow Hating for Bama fans is the recruiting process. He jilted Bama and the fans hold that against them because they read from "experts" that he was coming to Bama, but he didn't. All Bama got was a linebacker that couldn't play for Troy. So yeah, they have a gripe, but don't let that fool you. He's a really solid player and doesn't have a lot of flaws in his game. Some try to make faults about his passing capacities, nope. He hit 4 or 5 passes that were spot on and he makes reads at a level that only a few can (most were named Manning). He is physical and leads by example. It took guts for him to stand up to the media and say we mailed it in against Ole Miss but it won't happen again. It didn't. He wants to win and he wants Florida to win, that's unique in this era of football where 3 years and out is more likely than 5 years of participation.
I think if someone wanted to make an unbiased opinion, the list of bests at each position would surprise many. I don't think I could because I have my opinions and biases that would weigh into it, but perhaps taking a statistics major who hates football and asking him to develop a method to answer the age old question. Doubt that happens. Regardless, Tebow deserves to be in the discussion because he's gifted and wins. He rubs us all wrong because he has an air about him, but damn, he backs it up.
Buy/Sell/Hold
Andre Smith will stay in school and participate his Senior Year
Sell. With the NFL changing the Rookie salary cap after this year, and the money being less next season, he's more gone than Tubberville. Also gone are Moreno (he's quit going to classes), Stafford, and several USCal players.
Alabama's OL will not lose a beat regardless
Sell. It took this line 3 or 4 years to get it together and its pass protection still leaves something to be desired. I like Fluker, a lot, but a freshman is still a freshman, even Smith had his moments his Fr year. Vlachos will be the Center if Cardwell's injury issues don't improve and that doesn't give me warm fuzzy feelings given he is not that tall. In the SEC, the DTs seem to be ranging 6-5ish more these days. 5 inches is a lot to give up. We'll see, but there will be growing pains next season, there always is with new faces.
Ole Miss and Florida will be the pre-season favorites in the SEC
Buy. Of course there are all sorts of who stays and goes stuff, but just on how they played down the stretch, those two are the top of the list with Bama, LSU, and USCar all in the hunt more than likely. UGA will be in rebuild mode, again, and UT will be deconstructing the issues, as will Auburn.
Florida can't contain OU
Hold. Florida hasn't been pressed by an offense all year. They'll get that test finally. However, I think the bigger issue is can OU stop Florida? I don't think they can. I really think the result will be that OU and the Big 12 and their lack of defense and running games will get caught a lot this bowl season.
Bowl Pick'em
Navy vs Wake Forest
EAGLEBANK BOWL
11:00 AM ET
This is a rematch from earlier this year, and the result will be the same. Wake Forrest wins.
Fresno State vs Colorado State
NEW MEXICO BOWL
2:30 PM ET
Probably the worst game of the season, but I'll watch it because it is football and it beats having to talk to my wife, just kidding honey but not really, FSU wins big.
South Florida vs Memphis
MAGICJACK ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
4:30 PM ET
This game could be the high point winner of the season as defense is what other teams do. I like USF on this one because it is practically in their back yard.
No. 16 Brigham Young at Arizona
PIONEER LAS VEGAS BOWL
8:00 PM ET
It has been 10 years since Zona went bowling and this is the BYU classic it seems. BYU has too much offense for a Zona program turning the corner.
Troy vs Southern Miss
R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL
8:15 PM ET
This one actually will be worth watching because most of us are familiar with both teams. USM continues to be one of those teams that always wins regardless and Troy continues to be that team nobody wants to play OOC. I'd take Troy on this one, USM is gritty, but they aren't playing as well as Troy right now.
No. 9 Boise State at No. 11 TCU
SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL
8:00 PM ET
This game is an early big game trial for 2 teams feeling jilted by the bigger bowls. Boise is a known commodity and TCU has always skated just under the radar. It also matches strength on strength. This is a pickem if there ever was one, don't put money on it, but I'd take TCU in the upset here. They've been tested more.
Notre Dame vs Hawaii
SHERATON HAWAII BOWL
8:00 PM ET
The luck of the Irish shines on ND again, you suck and you got to go to Hawaii for the reward. The Irish eyes won't be smiling though, Hawaii will run them off the island.
Central Michigan vs Florida Atlantic
MOTOR CITY BOWL
8:00 PM ET
Dan LeFevour and the CMU get to splash water on FAU's dream season. Take CMU big on this one because they have played teams well (UGA comes to mind) and are battle ready.
North Carolina vs West Virginia
MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
1:00 PM ET
This is a game where you will look back in a year or two and say this is where their march started. Both teams are up and coming teams in a way, but take WVU on the game because they are far more talented on offense than what UNC has seen this year.
Florida State vs Wisconsin
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
4:30 PM ET
Once upon a time, this would have been a worthwhile game, this isn't that time, both teams are still hunting their identity and will waller all over each other doing it. FSU because Wisconsin is SLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW
California vs Miami (FL)
EMERALD BOWL
8:00 PM ET
Randy Shannon can't turn water into wine, nor can he make the U defend the run. Cal will take its frustrations of USC's shadow out on Miami.
Louisiana Tech vs Northern Illinois
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
8:15 PM ET
What happens when the SEC and Big 12 can't fill the roster? You get this nugget that could bankrupt the Shreeve....I don't give a damn who wins, but I'd take NIU if you made me.
Rutgers vs North Carolina State
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
3:00 PM ET
Here's a matchup of two teams that rumbled through the 2nd half of their seasons to get there. Birmingham gets its bowl on to a pretty good game, take Rutgers because they have more experience and intangibles at this stage.
No. 21 Missouri at No. 23 Northwestern
VALERO ALAMO BOWL
8:00 PM ET
Missouri was supposed to be in bigger things, and Northwestern was just supposed to lay there and take it this year, neither happened. Missouri wins because the Daniels-Macklin combo will not be stopped by any Big 10 defense.
Nevada vs Maryland
ROADY'S HUMANITARIAN BOWL
4:30 PM ET
Blue field, cold weather, blue balls....that probably has more of a storyline than the game, Nevada wins because Maryland can't decide what it wants to be and them boys ain't known cold like this.....
No. 13 Oklahoma State at No. 17 Oregon
PACIFIC LIFE HOLIDAY BOWL
8:00 PM ET
If USF/Memphis doesn't win the high score total, this one probably does. OSU has come close all year to being the fly in the ointment, but didn't happen, same for Oregon. I like OSU in this one because they've been through the big offenses and Oregon won't throw anything they haven't seen, plus they don't have the talent that Texas and OU have.
Western Michigan vs Rice
TEXAS BOWL
8:00 PM ET
Boy, when you want to just spread the wealth, you really have to dig deep to justify this bowl game. Rice hasn't won a bowl since grandpa was spry. Rice wins because WMU is not much more than a MAC sit in.
Air Force vs Houston
BELL HELICOPTER ARMED FORCES BOWL
12:00 PM ET
We'll remember the coaches in this game more than the game probably as both are young and working up the ladder to better things. These two played earlier in the year, AF won, and the Air Force should win again.
No. 20 Pittsburgh vs Oregon State
SUN BOWL
2:00 PM ET
It isn't the Sun Bowl without Ray Perkins is it? Oregon St should win this one because Pitt really isn't that good.
No. 24 Boston College at Vanderbilt
GAYLORD HOTELS MUSIC CITY BOWL
3:30 PM ET
Vandy goes bowling and they get to do it at home, how nice. Gaylord Focker Bowl sucks for the SEC every year, I wonder if the Coaches and ADs will push to see this one go away when the contract is up? BC big in this one.
Minnesota vs Kansas
INSIGHT BOWL
5:30 PM ET
Sota is riding a wave of cheap wins in, Kansas just wishes their coach didn't look like a blueberry. Kansas wins because Sota sucks.
No. 14 Georgia Tech vs LSU
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
7:30 PM ET
Les Miles wishes that this one didn't have to be. Paul Johnson is smiling from ear to ear. Ga Tech will run the offense that can't beat the SEC defenses for yet another victory over an SEC defense. Oops.
Iowa vs South Carolina
OUTBACK BOWL
11:00 AM ET
Can't be New Years without the Ol Ball Coach, and like most New Year's Day games with Spurrier, Iowa will win.
No. 15 Georgia at No. 18 Michigan State
CAPITAL ONE BOWL
1:00 PM ET
This is a bowl of two teams going downward fast. MSU has the power running game, Georgia has hype. I'd take UGA in a close one.
Nebraska vs Clemson
GATOR BOWL
1:00 PM ET
Dabo has the Tigers moving in the right direction and Nebraska is just happy to not see a team from the southwest...Nebraska wins.
No. 5 USC vs No. 8 Penn State
THE ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY CITI
4:30 PM ET
The Trojan Classic feeds the masses with another poor victim. Don't buy into the JoePa hype, they haven't seen talent yet until they see USCal play, USCal big.
No. 12 Cincinnati at No. 19 Virginia Tech
FEDEX ORANGE BOWL
8:30 PM ET
If there was a sorrier BCS game, I'd love to see it on paper. Fox plus this stinker equals lots of beer to stomach this one. Cincy wins this one because they're better than you think.
No. 7 Texas Tech vs No. 25 Mississippi
COTTON BOWL
2:00 PM ET
Since when did mean nothing bowls get moved this late? Nice matchup though between 2 programs moving up. Take Ole Miss on this one, that gap tooth line thing won't work against that huge NT they have.
East Carolina vs Kentucky
AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL
5:00 PM ET
More attention for the SEC on the 2nd, but it won't be what they wanted. ECU wins because Kentucky has limped into the bowl season and ECU is getting healthy again.
No. 4 Alabama vs No. 6 Utah
ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL
8:00 PM ET
You really think I'm gonna give it away already?
- January 3, 2009 -
Connecticut vs Buffalo
INTERNATIONAL BOWL
12:00 PM ET
Nothing makes me think college football more than Canada. Maybe the gravy and fries will be good, because the game sucks. The coaches are as good as gone so you know the prep work won't be there. Take UConn.
No. 3 Texas vs No. 10 Ohio State
TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL
8:00 PM ET
Neither team is happy to be here, both thought they were championship teams in August, Texas has a case and a big win against an overrated OSU team that has no business in the BCS this winter. Then again, have they the last 2?
No. 22 Ball State vs Tulsa
GMAC BOWL
8:00 PM ET
Because someone thought meaningless bowl games mean something after New Year's, ugh. Ball State big.
No. 1 Oklahoma vs No. 2 Florida
FEDEX BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
8:00 PM ET
Interesting matchup and a full month of sitting around having to listen to Tebow mania will be enough motivation for Chokelahoma, but this is Chokelahoma and the Stoops crying marketing campaign comes to an end. Florida has too much speed and defense for OU.
The Good...
3rd Quarter
I really liked the mentality coming out of the half. They reset and went back to their basic offense- north south running and play action short passing, and they attacked on defense. They kept Florida off the field and chewed up massive amounts of clock while they shut out Florida 10-0 in the 3rd. By the end of the 3rd, the momentum and game were in Bama's court. It just went away at the start of the 4th...
Individual efforts
Justin Woodall, Hightower, McClain, Fanney, Greenwood, Coffee, and Julio Jones all played championship level ball Saturday. I thought the option played well into Fanney's strength (run defense) and they went at him for a bit only to find out he's solid on the corner. Really, I thought the line/LB's played well overall, they didn't get ran over, but you can't beat a 5 man front as good as UF's with 4 guys. I thought Woodall understood the Spread Option well and was in position for most of the night. He didn't shy away from hitting Tebow either, speaking of which, RJ probably would like to not hit Tebow anytime soon, he got rung when the big boy lowered his shoulder to him.
The Julio Jones Celebrity Hour
It was another night of Wilson high right passing. Against Florida's safeties, that means you are going to get popped and it's gonna hurt. Jones likes contact, there ain't much doubting that, but he went after several passes that were just off. Jones makes Wilson look better than he is really, but all good WR do, and he's going to make McElroy better because he goes over the middle and QB's like to throw down the pipe and put it up to where the WR climbs the ladder and gets it. The nice thing is that he's just a freshman and he already plays at a 3rd or 4th year player level.
Gritty effort
Some folks had Florida winning in OU fashion. Some said that Bama couldn't play with Florida. Bama proved it deserved to be there and put their best effort on it, there wasn't a player that didn't give his effort to the game, but sometimes, there are just better teams out there across from you. Florida was that team.
The Bad...
First series on both sides of the ball
If you read the Random Thoughts, you know I thought that Bama had to keep the ball and then get 3 and outs where they can. The first drives of the game weren't that by a long shot. I guess the thing that I didn't like was that when Florida got the ball, Bama looked confused as to what was coming. It was pretty obvious after about the 3rd or 4th play that they weren't going to stop them on that drive. The best thing that could have happened was to get off the field, regroup and start over.
4th quarter
It is rare that Bama doesn't own or pull even in the 4th on teams, even when the Shula teams sucked, but on Saturday when the last round was ready, Florida answered the bell, Bama didn't. 1 yard total offense vs. 14 points tells a story in itself.
CBS ejaculating over Tebow-mania
I don't have a problem with Tebow (more on him later), but I do have a problem with how Tebow is done by CBS. That's where my complaint over Tebow would be is in the constant drum beat by Verne and Gary each and every play. Yes, Tim Tebow is a phenomenal player and he is one of the best leaders I've ever seen, but when he's not on the field, I don't need to be reminded about him.
Javier Arenas
I don't call out players much, at least not directly, but this one has to be. You could see it in his body language, his head wasn't in the game or the team, it was about him showing off against Florida, mission failed. I've mentioned several times that he's the kinda guy that can win a game for you, and he can lose it for you. Saturday, he made about 4 key errors that played into the loss. At some point the staff will lose its patience with Arenas because it is all about the big play and ESPN moment with him and not making the right play every time. Arenas is extremely talented, and he's been big at times, but as we all knew going in, the special teams needed to be solid in all phases, and Arenas' play definitely was a factor.
Tight play calling
Florida's defense is good, I wouldn't call it the best Bama's seen this year, but it is good. I thought Bama's play calling contributed to them looking better than they were though. There were times where it felt like the game's decisions were being vetted 3 or 4 times before it happened like they were trying to out smart Florida and Strong. Why? You beat teams with your game, not the game that you think will win. I liked a lot of what they did during the game, but there were times where it just left a lot to be desired. For example, Bama gets the short field on a punt and penalty, Bama motors down to the red zone and then just stalls out because they call plays that ran straight into Florida's strengths. Of course Ingram cut the wrong way on one, but that was one play in 3 that didn't work.
The Ugly...
Special Teams blunders
Did you ever feel like you were in Groundhog's Day? I bet Saban has felt that for 10 out of 13 weeks where there have been gaffes in the special teams that have changed the momentum and progress of the game. While it wasn't the coach's call to fake the kick, why would it be an option with your punter and kicker? A backup QB or a WR, I could see, but that duo wouldn't get 10 yards on a high school team. My hope is that they will take a lot of time to review where the special teams are going and decide how they want to address it because it is old now.
Random Thoughts
Is Tim Tebow the greatest player ever? For starts, that is a subjective question that an answer is based on your emotion and concept of what makes one great. I'll say this, he's one damn good player and probably the best in the modern BCS cable generation of players. I think the underlying thought that comes in Tebow Hating for Bama fans is the recruiting process. He jilted Bama and the fans hold that against them because they read from "experts" that he was coming to Bama, but he didn't. All Bama got was a linebacker that couldn't play for Troy. So yeah, they have a gripe, but don't let that fool you. He's a really solid player and doesn't have a lot of flaws in his game. Some try to make faults about his passing capacities, nope. He hit 4 or 5 passes that were spot on and he makes reads at a level that only a few can (most were named Manning). He is physical and leads by example. It took guts for him to stand up to the media and say we mailed it in against Ole Miss but it won't happen again. It didn't. He wants to win and he wants Florida to win, that's unique in this era of football where 3 years and out is more likely than 5 years of participation.
I think if someone wanted to make an unbiased opinion, the list of bests at each position would surprise many. I don't think I could because I have my opinions and biases that would weigh into it, but perhaps taking a statistics major who hates football and asking him to develop a method to answer the age old question. Doubt that happens. Regardless, Tebow deserves to be in the discussion because he's gifted and wins. He rubs us all wrong because he has an air about him, but damn, he backs it up.
Buy/Sell/Hold
Andre Smith will stay in school and participate his Senior Year
Sell. With the NFL changing the Rookie salary cap after this year, and the money being less next season, he's more gone than Tubberville. Also gone are Moreno (he's quit going to classes), Stafford, and several USCal players.
Alabama's OL will not lose a beat regardless
Sell. It took this line 3 or 4 years to get it together and its pass protection still leaves something to be desired. I like Fluker, a lot, but a freshman is still a freshman, even Smith had his moments his Fr year. Vlachos will be the Center if Cardwell's injury issues don't improve and that doesn't give me warm fuzzy feelings given he is not that tall. In the SEC, the DTs seem to be ranging 6-5ish more these days. 5 inches is a lot to give up. We'll see, but there will be growing pains next season, there always is with new faces.
Ole Miss and Florida will be the pre-season favorites in the SEC
Buy. Of course there are all sorts of who stays and goes stuff, but just on how they played down the stretch, those two are the top of the list with Bama, LSU, and USCar all in the hunt more than likely. UGA will be in rebuild mode, again, and UT will be deconstructing the issues, as will Auburn.
Florida can't contain OU
Hold. Florida hasn't been pressed by an offense all year. They'll get that test finally. However, I think the bigger issue is can OU stop Florida? I don't think they can. I really think the result will be that OU and the Big 12 and their lack of defense and running games will get caught a lot this bowl season.
Bowl Pick'em
Navy vs Wake Forest
EAGLEBANK BOWL
11:00 AM ET
This is a rematch from earlier this year, and the result will be the same. Wake Forrest wins.
Fresno State vs Colorado State
NEW MEXICO BOWL
2:30 PM ET
Probably the worst game of the season, but I'll watch it because it is football and it beats having to talk to my wife, just kidding honey but not really, FSU wins big.
South Florida vs Memphis
MAGICJACK ST. PETERSBURG BOWL
4:30 PM ET
This game could be the high point winner of the season as defense is what other teams do. I like USF on this one because it is practically in their back yard.
No. 16 Brigham Young at Arizona
PIONEER LAS VEGAS BOWL
8:00 PM ET
It has been 10 years since Zona went bowling and this is the BYU classic it seems. BYU has too much offense for a Zona program turning the corner.
Troy vs Southern Miss
R+L CARRIERS NEW ORLEANS BOWL
8:15 PM ET
This one actually will be worth watching because most of us are familiar with both teams. USM continues to be one of those teams that always wins regardless and Troy continues to be that team nobody wants to play OOC. I'd take Troy on this one, USM is gritty, but they aren't playing as well as Troy right now.
No. 9 Boise State at No. 11 TCU
SAN DIEGO COUNTY CREDIT UNION POINSETTIA BOWL
8:00 PM ET
This game is an early big game trial for 2 teams feeling jilted by the bigger bowls. Boise is a known commodity and TCU has always skated just under the radar. It also matches strength on strength. This is a pickem if there ever was one, don't put money on it, but I'd take TCU in the upset here. They've been tested more.
Notre Dame vs Hawaii
SHERATON HAWAII BOWL
8:00 PM ET
The luck of the Irish shines on ND again, you suck and you got to go to Hawaii for the reward. The Irish eyes won't be smiling though, Hawaii will run them off the island.
Central Michigan vs Florida Atlantic
MOTOR CITY BOWL
8:00 PM ET
Dan LeFevour and the CMU get to splash water on FAU's dream season. Take CMU big on this one because they have played teams well (UGA comes to mind) and are battle ready.
North Carolina vs West Virginia
MEINEKE CAR CARE BOWL
1:00 PM ET
This is a game where you will look back in a year or two and say this is where their march started. Both teams are up and coming teams in a way, but take WVU on the game because they are far more talented on offense than what UNC has seen this year.
Florida State vs Wisconsin
CHAMPS SPORTS BOWL
4:30 PM ET
Once upon a time, this would have been a worthwhile game, this isn't that time, both teams are still hunting their identity and will waller all over each other doing it. FSU because Wisconsin is SLOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOW
California vs Miami (FL)
EMERALD BOWL
8:00 PM ET
Randy Shannon can't turn water into wine, nor can he make the U defend the run. Cal will take its frustrations of USC's shadow out on Miami.
Louisiana Tech vs Northern Illinois
INDEPENDENCE BOWL
8:15 PM ET
What happens when the SEC and Big 12 can't fill the roster? You get this nugget that could bankrupt the Shreeve....I don't give a damn who wins, but I'd take NIU if you made me.
Rutgers vs North Carolina State
PAPAJOHNS.COM BOWL
3:00 PM ET
Here's a matchup of two teams that rumbled through the 2nd half of their seasons to get there. Birmingham gets its bowl on to a pretty good game, take Rutgers because they have more experience and intangibles at this stage.
No. 21 Missouri at No. 23 Northwestern
VALERO ALAMO BOWL
8:00 PM ET
Missouri was supposed to be in bigger things, and Northwestern was just supposed to lay there and take it this year, neither happened. Missouri wins because the Daniels-Macklin combo will not be stopped by any Big 10 defense.
Nevada vs Maryland
ROADY'S HUMANITARIAN BOWL
4:30 PM ET
Blue field, cold weather, blue balls....that probably has more of a storyline than the game, Nevada wins because Maryland can't decide what it wants to be and them boys ain't known cold like this.....
No. 13 Oklahoma State at No. 17 Oregon
PACIFIC LIFE HOLIDAY BOWL
8:00 PM ET
If USF/Memphis doesn't win the high score total, this one probably does. OSU has come close all year to being the fly in the ointment, but didn't happen, same for Oregon. I like OSU in this one because they've been through the big offenses and Oregon won't throw anything they haven't seen, plus they don't have the talent that Texas and OU have.
Western Michigan vs Rice
TEXAS BOWL
8:00 PM ET
Boy, when you want to just spread the wealth, you really have to dig deep to justify this bowl game. Rice hasn't won a bowl since grandpa was spry. Rice wins because WMU is not much more than a MAC sit in.
Air Force vs Houston
BELL HELICOPTER ARMED FORCES BOWL
12:00 PM ET
We'll remember the coaches in this game more than the game probably as both are young and working up the ladder to better things. These two played earlier in the year, AF won, and the Air Force should win again.
No. 20 Pittsburgh vs Oregon State
SUN BOWL
2:00 PM ET
It isn't the Sun Bowl without Ray Perkins is it? Oregon St should win this one because Pitt really isn't that good.
No. 24 Boston College at Vanderbilt
GAYLORD HOTELS MUSIC CITY BOWL
3:30 PM ET
Vandy goes bowling and they get to do it at home, how nice. Gaylord Focker Bowl sucks for the SEC every year, I wonder if the Coaches and ADs will push to see this one go away when the contract is up? BC big in this one.
Minnesota vs Kansas
INSIGHT BOWL
5:30 PM ET
Sota is riding a wave of cheap wins in, Kansas just wishes their coach didn't look like a blueberry. Kansas wins because Sota sucks.
No. 14 Georgia Tech vs LSU
CHICK-FIL-A BOWL
7:30 PM ET
Les Miles wishes that this one didn't have to be. Paul Johnson is smiling from ear to ear. Ga Tech will run the offense that can't beat the SEC defenses for yet another victory over an SEC defense. Oops.
Iowa vs South Carolina
OUTBACK BOWL
11:00 AM ET
Can't be New Years without the Ol Ball Coach, and like most New Year's Day games with Spurrier, Iowa will win.
No. 15 Georgia at No. 18 Michigan State
CAPITAL ONE BOWL
1:00 PM ET
This is a bowl of two teams going downward fast. MSU has the power running game, Georgia has hype. I'd take UGA in a close one.
Nebraska vs Clemson
GATOR BOWL
1:00 PM ET
Dabo has the Tigers moving in the right direction and Nebraska is just happy to not see a team from the southwest...Nebraska wins.
No. 5 USC vs No. 8 Penn State
THE ROSE BOWL GAME PRESENTED BY CITI
4:30 PM ET
The Trojan Classic feeds the masses with another poor victim. Don't buy into the JoePa hype, they haven't seen talent yet until they see USCal play, USCal big.
No. 12 Cincinnati at No. 19 Virginia Tech
FEDEX ORANGE BOWL
8:30 PM ET
If there was a sorrier BCS game, I'd love to see it on paper. Fox plus this stinker equals lots of beer to stomach this one. Cincy wins this one because they're better than you think.
No. 7 Texas Tech vs No. 25 Mississippi
COTTON BOWL
2:00 PM ET
Since when did mean nothing bowls get moved this late? Nice matchup though between 2 programs moving up. Take Ole Miss on this one, that gap tooth line thing won't work against that huge NT they have.
East Carolina vs Kentucky
AUTOZONE LIBERTY BOWL
5:00 PM ET
More attention for the SEC on the 2nd, but it won't be what they wanted. ECU wins because Kentucky has limped into the bowl season and ECU is getting healthy again.
No. 4 Alabama vs No. 6 Utah
ALLSTATE SUGAR BOWL
8:00 PM ET
You really think I'm gonna give it away already?
- January 3, 2009 -
Connecticut vs Buffalo
INTERNATIONAL BOWL
12:00 PM ET
Nothing makes me think college football more than Canada. Maybe the gravy and fries will be good, because the game sucks. The coaches are as good as gone so you know the prep work won't be there. Take UConn.
No. 3 Texas vs No. 10 Ohio State
TOSTITOS FIESTA BOWL
8:00 PM ET
Neither team is happy to be here, both thought they were championship teams in August, Texas has a case and a big win against an overrated OSU team that has no business in the BCS this winter. Then again, have they the last 2?
No. 22 Ball State vs Tulsa
GMAC BOWL
8:00 PM ET
Because someone thought meaningless bowl games mean something after New Year's, ugh. Ball State big.
No. 1 Oklahoma vs No. 2 Florida
FEDEX BCS NATIONAL CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
8:00 PM ET
Interesting matchup and a full month of sitting around having to listen to Tebow mania will be enough motivation for Chokelahoma, but this is Chokelahoma and the Stoops crying marketing campaign comes to an end. Florida has too much speed and defense for OU.
December 4, 2008
Random Thoughts- Florida
Ok, it is Florida time and everyone wants to act like they understand the Meyer offensive strategy. It isn't just their offense, the real catalyst for the team is their defense, just like Alabama. So, here's the drill....
Alabama's offense vs. Florida's defense
Florida runs a 4-3 defense that relies on strength in the middle and speed to the outside. Their speed almost makes the linebackers like 3 safeties when they are in base formations. Brandon Spikes is the name of the group and we all remember him from recruiting battles long since lost. Spikes is a big guy, and reminds me a lot of Rudd or a slightly less aggressive Derrick Thomas. Jones, Hicks and Doe remind me a lot of Shula type linebackers, smaller, faster, more cover than tackle guys. That works into what Strong is doing at Florida because their defense creates turnovers and the offense puts the points up off those turnovers, so the linebackers play more coverage than attack because teams are forced to go 1 dimensional early and often. Stamper plays a lot, and has started some at OLB, he is Spikes main backup as well.
Don't let the linebackers smokescreen how good their front 4 has been. Carlos Dunlap is a physical tackle/end that is more of a pass rusher than run stopper. He's 290 and is real good with his hands. He swats linemen from engaging him and gets inside the line a great deal. When I was watching the FSU game, he had 2-3 sacks and was beating his side off the end and inside, so he isn't a one trick pony. Jermaine Cunningham plays the other end, and is a pure rush end. he's a bit small at 250, so you'd almost say when he's playing they are running a 3-4 with him up on the line. Terron Sanders is their top interior lineman, but he's not a dominator like Cody (who is) nor is he extremely disruptive. He takes up gaps and clogs which he is good at. He doesn't look like he's a weight room kinda guy though. Marsh plays opposite of him, but is out still hurt but playing. His backup is Antwine and he's big but stays beat up a lot. He has conditioning needs that if he addressed them, he'd stay off the trainers table more, he's out and so is the other tackle Patchan. Patchan is a gritty guy and if he were playing, Bama would not have as much of an advantage as they will with him out. The Gators run a lot of linemen out there, before the season they wanted to run 10 if able, but with the injuries mounting, I'd say the 4 will go most of the night.
The Gator secondary if anything is young and with time and battle scars will be a great group in time. They got picked on by Ole Miss in their lone loss of the year and over pursue at times. Florida fans will probably point to Black as their best, but in my opinion, Major Wright is the centerpiece. The times I've watched Florida, as Wright goes, so does the defense.
So, how to beat them? Well, if you try to go outside to outside with them, you'll lose. You have to establish up the gut running. Bama does that well most of the time. Dunlap is going to give the OL trouble, but I think they will use Walker/McCall as backup support on him and continue running north and south. When you have gotten the safeties and linebackers up in the box, the play action time comes in. Travis McCall and Nick Walker could have big nights because the speed that Florida has will limit the route time that Bama can use. Florida plays little to 0 zone coverage in their packages, they do go zone with their safeties on 3rd down, but the corners play bump man or man release most games. There will be 1 on 1 opportunities for Jones and Stover to establish in space on curls, outs, slants, etc. I don't see the offense excelling if they try to burn them deep because they lack the players to do that kind of offense, but they can wear and smash mouth Florida down the field with balanced run/pass play calling. I would expect to see the Tide use some counter plays as well and pull Marlon Davis and Mike Johnson off the line and follow with the TE as lead blockers for Coffee and Ingram.
Bama's OL is going to have some size and weight advantages, but the key will be engaging the defense before it engages them. Smith and Davis have struggled with speed rushers because they lack the footwork to get around on them. The TE's may have to support more and stay out of routes at time until the play action and run game backs them off. This is not going to be a game where Bama gets 200 yards rushing, I don't think, because this defense swarms in the box and keeps backs from hitting the 2nd and 3rd levels. Don't look for trick plays either. The speed and heady play these guys use would turn a trick play into a major momentum shift with an INT or fumble. I think the key is to confuse the secondary with some different looks and throwing on running situations and running on throwing situations (Bama hasn't been exactly tricky in the play calling but haven't had to because they dominate up front).
Bama wins this battle if they play smart, physical, and take advantage of the Jones v. Haden/Jenkins matchup. Florida wins if they force Wilson to beat them down field and do what they've done all year, create turnovers.
Florida's Offense v. Bama's Defense
Everyone knows Tim Tebow and what he does. His athleticism and physical nature forces teams to play back a bit. That's the main mistake teams make with Florida. You can't out zone them or contain them all day. He's too smart and his running ability is only magnified when you do it. The thing that teams continuously do is try to confuse him, but this offense has so many options and check downs that you just can't beat them with coverage, it takes pressure.
What Florida wants to do with the ball is get match ups. Tebow on a small linebacker, Harvin on a linebacker, Moody on a corner, etc. are all match ups in their favor 9 out of 10 times. They will also run a lot of what I call misdirection plays (counters, direct snaps to the back, option counters) to get the defense flat footed in space and use their speed to punish them for it. It isn't a simple offense from a read perspective. They will run and throw from any formation and unit grouping.
Many fans think because they score 50 points at will, they are a fast offense that keeps their defense on the field. That's farthest from reality. They do score fast on short field drives from turnovers, but they do like to move the field and wear teams out with the option. Tebow will not throw it 50 times nor will he run it 50. Folks have this conception of him, but Florida is performing at its best when he throws about 15-20 times and runs about 7-15 times. The 2 games he passed a lot, Miami and Ole Miss, were the worst games they had. The bulk of their passing game is short and controlled. Consider it like Bama's with more focus on 1 on 1 and less route precision.
Don't get hung up on Tebow-mania just yet, because he's got the best supporting cast in the SEC if not America. He has Percy Harvin (College's fastest player worth a damn), Rainey, Demps, the 2 Moores, and Hernandez the H-Back/TE (McCall 10 pounds lighter and with better hands). Harvin is very important to this offense. If he is out, or reduced to either a RB or WR role, the mystery and trickery is gone. That's what he does for the offense is that he can come out of the backfield and draw a match up favorable, go in motion at WR and take an option handoff/reverse, take direct snaps, throw, be the decoy and open up the flat to Hernandez, and so on. Their run plays are all read/option plays where there are 2 to 4 different scenarios that Tebow and the running backs/WR have in each play called where it could go from draw to sweep to keeper to keeper pitch, etc.
Florida relies on more zone blocking schemes because they use the speed backs to hit the gaps fast and attack the defenses. Don't let the term fool you. It is more like the old Michigan zone blocking and not that piss poor one Bob had. Their guys are all over 300 all 6-5+ and get in the zone fast. Trautwein is an NFL prospect who anchors the end and the Pouncey twins hold the interior for the offense.
On defense, it is all about attacking and discipline. Bama has done that all year on defense but has not faced an offense this diverse, balanced, and gifted. I would say that Bama goes nickel the majority of the night to get more speed on the field and that formation is where they get their best 11 on the field by rotating Sharrief, Ma. Johnson, Woodall, Anders, Chapman, and others in and out. Cory Reamer probably won't see much time on the field unless Florida completely changes its identity for this one. Another thing they may have to go to is the "quarters" formation where they use 3 down (Greenwood/Cody or Chapman/Deaderick) 1-2 backs (McClain/Hightower) and 6-7 DBs (Arenas/Johnson/Jackson/Sharrief/Woodall/Jackson/Rogers or King or Barron). I think they will try to stay in the nickel and press their luck there because the other will expose the run more. The Quarter will use space and speed to keep everything in check, and keep the WR routes congested, but it is more of a prevent type of defense.
The keys for Bama are simple, Cody and the down linemen must close the gaps in the middle and force things to the outside. From that point, the LBs and the S's and Arenas have to be on top of the play fast and tackle soundly. They cannot let the flat get abandoned. A backer or safety has to stay at home and cover the middle of the field because that is where Tebow's home is both running and passing. I wouldn't spy Tebow or Harvin because there isn't one person that ideally can do that with either due to their unique size (TT) and speed (PH) that they possess. Instead, if Bama moves sideline to sideline as their linebackers and star (Arenas) do most nights, they should keep things in play. Saban's philosophy is not to man up directly and have McClain on a tailback exclusively like most 4-3 man coverages require. Instead, he asks the linebackers to read the play and attack from whatever position they are at. I think that plays big into the storyline of the night too. If Bama can mask the blitz or get good penetration from the front 5-7 (depending on formation) they can into Tebow's head some and force him to become uncomfortable.
Ole Miss did that in part, they used their big nose tackle to disrupt the middle and their linebackers and DBs covered the outside well enough that it kept Tebow bottled up. Tebow is much less effective when he's asked to stay at home and not warm up to the flow of the game with his legs. Again, don't get fooled into thinking you beat him by making him just throw, you must still force his throws early or mask the coverage and make him read zone and go man or read man and go zone blitz on top of bottling him.
The biggest "tip" that the offense makes is in its pre-snap motion. When Meyer was at Utah, I could call the play from home based on the motion that occurred as being a run or option or pass based on how the H Back and WR/RB (Harvin) moved pre-snap. When the back goes from slot to back in motion, it is option left a high percentage of the time. When the back goes to slot or isolation it is QB draw or play fake pass. When there is no motion, it is pass. When they go "full house" and have two backs stacked left or right, that is the Tebow keeper, but you have to man cover the TE in short and goal situations.
Special Teams
Florida isn't fancy on special teams, they just execute with Brandon James. Bama's biggest weak spot at times has been coverage, but they've improved in the last month in particular with Pegues and Auburn's tandem being in check. This guy though is the Bentley to those team's Mercury Cougar. James can beat you on his own if he gets space. Bama must hold its lanes in check and punt away from him. I'd call it a moral victory if PJ's punt average is 35 and James' average return is less than 10. Cory Reamer is the biggest thing standing between PJ and disaster and how well he picks up the biggest threat will be key to keeping the defense out of bad situations. Florida wants to get some shanks/blocks early to get the score lopsided and have the Bama offense off its game plan.
Bottom line
It is Florida's speed vs. the power that Bama plays. Florida in the past has wilted against teams that came out hitting them and played disciplined (Auburn, Ole Miss, Miiiiichigan, LSU, UGA) and the offense is not a power option offense. It won't slug out series with others in the way the triple option style teams do (Tech), it can't take that kind of slow methodical beatdown approach and win. They are built for long drives, but it has to be up tempo. Their defense plays lights out and gives up big plays but creates well more than they give. They will try to rush Wilson out and try to get him rattled and throwing low percentage passes (like JPW's last 2 seasons were). They want Wilson to be the guy to beat them and not let the run game dictate the flow. They want to stay off the WRs and react to the ball and try to get in the passing lanes.
Alabama has to play that wear down drag out style and keep Florida's O on the bench because as good as their defense is, they can't keep them pinned all night, they will score. The best series of events that could happen is to have UF get the ball 1st, 3 and out, Bama take a 10 play 6-8 min drive get 7, and get another 3-5 play and out. Then follow that with a long drive with time off the clock and points if you can, but just keeping UF hemmed up on the sidelines will frustrate Meyer more than scoring will.
I think Bama's philosophy has more of a chance Saturday
Bama 24 Florida 17
Alabama's offense vs. Florida's defense
Florida runs a 4-3 defense that relies on strength in the middle and speed to the outside. Their speed almost makes the linebackers like 3 safeties when they are in base formations. Brandon Spikes is the name of the group and we all remember him from recruiting battles long since lost. Spikes is a big guy, and reminds me a lot of Rudd or a slightly less aggressive Derrick Thomas. Jones, Hicks and Doe remind me a lot of Shula type linebackers, smaller, faster, more cover than tackle guys. That works into what Strong is doing at Florida because their defense creates turnovers and the offense puts the points up off those turnovers, so the linebackers play more coverage than attack because teams are forced to go 1 dimensional early and often. Stamper plays a lot, and has started some at OLB, he is Spikes main backup as well.
Don't let the linebackers smokescreen how good their front 4 has been. Carlos Dunlap is a physical tackle/end that is more of a pass rusher than run stopper. He's 290 and is real good with his hands. He swats linemen from engaging him and gets inside the line a great deal. When I was watching the FSU game, he had 2-3 sacks and was beating his side off the end and inside, so he isn't a one trick pony. Jermaine Cunningham plays the other end, and is a pure rush end. he's a bit small at 250, so you'd almost say when he's playing they are running a 3-4 with him up on the line. Terron Sanders is their top interior lineman, but he's not a dominator like Cody (who is) nor is he extremely disruptive. He takes up gaps and clogs which he is good at. He doesn't look like he's a weight room kinda guy though. Marsh plays opposite of him, but is out still hurt but playing. His backup is Antwine and he's big but stays beat up a lot. He has conditioning needs that if he addressed them, he'd stay off the trainers table more, he's out and so is the other tackle Patchan. Patchan is a gritty guy and if he were playing, Bama would not have as much of an advantage as they will with him out. The Gators run a lot of linemen out there, before the season they wanted to run 10 if able, but with the injuries mounting, I'd say the 4 will go most of the night.
The Gator secondary if anything is young and with time and battle scars will be a great group in time. They got picked on by Ole Miss in their lone loss of the year and over pursue at times. Florida fans will probably point to Black as their best, but in my opinion, Major Wright is the centerpiece. The times I've watched Florida, as Wright goes, so does the defense.
So, how to beat them? Well, if you try to go outside to outside with them, you'll lose. You have to establish up the gut running. Bama does that well most of the time. Dunlap is going to give the OL trouble, but I think they will use Walker/McCall as backup support on him and continue running north and south. When you have gotten the safeties and linebackers up in the box, the play action time comes in. Travis McCall and Nick Walker could have big nights because the speed that Florida has will limit the route time that Bama can use. Florida plays little to 0 zone coverage in their packages, they do go zone with their safeties on 3rd down, but the corners play bump man or man release most games. There will be 1 on 1 opportunities for Jones and Stover to establish in space on curls, outs, slants, etc. I don't see the offense excelling if they try to burn them deep because they lack the players to do that kind of offense, but they can wear and smash mouth Florida down the field with balanced run/pass play calling. I would expect to see the Tide use some counter plays as well and pull Marlon Davis and Mike Johnson off the line and follow with the TE as lead blockers for Coffee and Ingram.
Bama's OL is going to have some size and weight advantages, but the key will be engaging the defense before it engages them. Smith and Davis have struggled with speed rushers because they lack the footwork to get around on them. The TE's may have to support more and stay out of routes at time until the play action and run game backs them off. This is not going to be a game where Bama gets 200 yards rushing, I don't think, because this defense swarms in the box and keeps backs from hitting the 2nd and 3rd levels. Don't look for trick plays either. The speed and heady play these guys use would turn a trick play into a major momentum shift with an INT or fumble. I think the key is to confuse the secondary with some different looks and throwing on running situations and running on throwing situations (Bama hasn't been exactly tricky in the play calling but haven't had to because they dominate up front).
Bama wins this battle if they play smart, physical, and take advantage of the Jones v. Haden/Jenkins matchup. Florida wins if they force Wilson to beat them down field and do what they've done all year, create turnovers.
Florida's Offense v. Bama's Defense
Everyone knows Tim Tebow and what he does. His athleticism and physical nature forces teams to play back a bit. That's the main mistake teams make with Florida. You can't out zone them or contain them all day. He's too smart and his running ability is only magnified when you do it. The thing that teams continuously do is try to confuse him, but this offense has so many options and check downs that you just can't beat them with coverage, it takes pressure.
What Florida wants to do with the ball is get match ups. Tebow on a small linebacker, Harvin on a linebacker, Moody on a corner, etc. are all match ups in their favor 9 out of 10 times. They will also run a lot of what I call misdirection plays (counters, direct snaps to the back, option counters) to get the defense flat footed in space and use their speed to punish them for it. It isn't a simple offense from a read perspective. They will run and throw from any formation and unit grouping.
Many fans think because they score 50 points at will, they are a fast offense that keeps their defense on the field. That's farthest from reality. They do score fast on short field drives from turnovers, but they do like to move the field and wear teams out with the option. Tebow will not throw it 50 times nor will he run it 50. Folks have this conception of him, but Florida is performing at its best when he throws about 15-20 times and runs about 7-15 times. The 2 games he passed a lot, Miami and Ole Miss, were the worst games they had. The bulk of their passing game is short and controlled. Consider it like Bama's with more focus on 1 on 1 and less route precision.
Don't get hung up on Tebow-mania just yet, because he's got the best supporting cast in the SEC if not America. He has Percy Harvin (College's fastest player worth a damn), Rainey, Demps, the 2 Moores, and Hernandez the H-Back/TE (McCall 10 pounds lighter and with better hands). Harvin is very important to this offense. If he is out, or reduced to either a RB or WR role, the mystery and trickery is gone. That's what he does for the offense is that he can come out of the backfield and draw a match up favorable, go in motion at WR and take an option handoff/reverse, take direct snaps, throw, be the decoy and open up the flat to Hernandez, and so on. Their run plays are all read/option plays where there are 2 to 4 different scenarios that Tebow and the running backs/WR have in each play called where it could go from draw to sweep to keeper to keeper pitch, etc.
Florida relies on more zone blocking schemes because they use the speed backs to hit the gaps fast and attack the defenses. Don't let the term fool you. It is more like the old Michigan zone blocking and not that piss poor one Bob had. Their guys are all over 300 all 6-5+ and get in the zone fast. Trautwein is an NFL prospect who anchors the end and the Pouncey twins hold the interior for the offense.
On defense, it is all about attacking and discipline. Bama has done that all year on defense but has not faced an offense this diverse, balanced, and gifted. I would say that Bama goes nickel the majority of the night to get more speed on the field and that formation is where they get their best 11 on the field by rotating Sharrief, Ma. Johnson, Woodall, Anders, Chapman, and others in and out. Cory Reamer probably won't see much time on the field unless Florida completely changes its identity for this one. Another thing they may have to go to is the "quarters" formation where they use 3 down (Greenwood/Cody or Chapman/Deaderick) 1-2 backs (McClain/Hightower) and 6-7 DBs (Arenas/Johnson/Jackson/Sharrief/Woodall/Jackson/Rogers or King or Barron). I think they will try to stay in the nickel and press their luck there because the other will expose the run more. The Quarter will use space and speed to keep everything in check, and keep the WR routes congested, but it is more of a prevent type of defense.
The keys for Bama are simple, Cody and the down linemen must close the gaps in the middle and force things to the outside. From that point, the LBs and the S's and Arenas have to be on top of the play fast and tackle soundly. They cannot let the flat get abandoned. A backer or safety has to stay at home and cover the middle of the field because that is where Tebow's home is both running and passing. I wouldn't spy Tebow or Harvin because there isn't one person that ideally can do that with either due to their unique size (TT) and speed (PH) that they possess. Instead, if Bama moves sideline to sideline as their linebackers and star (Arenas) do most nights, they should keep things in play. Saban's philosophy is not to man up directly and have McClain on a tailback exclusively like most 4-3 man coverages require. Instead, he asks the linebackers to read the play and attack from whatever position they are at. I think that plays big into the storyline of the night too. If Bama can mask the blitz or get good penetration from the front 5-7 (depending on formation) they can into Tebow's head some and force him to become uncomfortable.
Ole Miss did that in part, they used their big nose tackle to disrupt the middle and their linebackers and DBs covered the outside well enough that it kept Tebow bottled up. Tebow is much less effective when he's asked to stay at home and not warm up to the flow of the game with his legs. Again, don't get fooled into thinking you beat him by making him just throw, you must still force his throws early or mask the coverage and make him read zone and go man or read man and go zone blitz on top of bottling him.
The biggest "tip" that the offense makes is in its pre-snap motion. When Meyer was at Utah, I could call the play from home based on the motion that occurred as being a run or option or pass based on how the H Back and WR/RB (Harvin) moved pre-snap. When the back goes from slot to back in motion, it is option left a high percentage of the time. When the back goes to slot or isolation it is QB draw or play fake pass. When there is no motion, it is pass. When they go "full house" and have two backs stacked left or right, that is the Tebow keeper, but you have to man cover the TE in short and goal situations.
Special Teams
Florida isn't fancy on special teams, they just execute with Brandon James. Bama's biggest weak spot at times has been coverage, but they've improved in the last month in particular with Pegues and Auburn's tandem being in check. This guy though is the Bentley to those team's Mercury Cougar. James can beat you on his own if he gets space. Bama must hold its lanes in check and punt away from him. I'd call it a moral victory if PJ's punt average is 35 and James' average return is less than 10. Cory Reamer is the biggest thing standing between PJ and disaster and how well he picks up the biggest threat will be key to keeping the defense out of bad situations. Florida wants to get some shanks/blocks early to get the score lopsided and have the Bama offense off its game plan.
Bottom line
It is Florida's speed vs. the power that Bama plays. Florida in the past has wilted against teams that came out hitting them and played disciplined (Auburn, Ole Miss, Miiiiichigan, LSU, UGA) and the offense is not a power option offense. It won't slug out series with others in the way the triple option style teams do (Tech), it can't take that kind of slow methodical beatdown approach and win. They are built for long drives, but it has to be up tempo. Their defense plays lights out and gives up big plays but creates well more than they give. They will try to rush Wilson out and try to get him rattled and throwing low percentage passes (like JPW's last 2 seasons were). They want Wilson to be the guy to beat them and not let the run game dictate the flow. They want to stay off the WRs and react to the ball and try to get in the passing lanes.
Alabama has to play that wear down drag out style and keep Florida's O on the bench because as good as their defense is, they can't keep them pinned all night, they will score. The best series of events that could happen is to have UF get the ball 1st, 3 and out, Bama take a 10 play 6-8 min drive get 7, and get another 3-5 play and out. Then follow that with a long drive with time off the clock and points if you can, but just keeping UF hemmed up on the sidelines will frustrate Meyer more than scoring will.
I think Bama's philosophy has more of a chance Saturday
Bama 24 Florida 17
December 1, 2008
The Good, The Bad, & The Ugly- Auburn
After a long, long, long period of waiting, we can finally tell our kids that's how it is supposed to be. I will say this, Auburn's defense is good, probably the best one the Tide saw all year, but the Auburn offense was the worst they saw all year too.
The Good.
Seniors showout
One that jumped off the page at me during the course of the game was Nikita Stover. Stover is one of those guys who seems to get up just a little bit more for Auburn. The difference in a 6-0 halftime lead and the 10-0 lead was Stover and his massive block on the outside. TV continues to have a hard time telling 8 and 9 apart from the booth and credited Jones, but it was Stover. He also beat his corner at least 3 times that I saw (once was the TD, second was underthrown to him, third Wilson went to Jones). Another big time game came from RJ. Johnson doesn't have to rack up the stat lines, but what I see that is vastly improved is how well he is seeing the play before the snap. The 2 senior tight ends had a nice day blocking as well. The staff is starting to use the McCall rub route as a bread and butter play each week. Have you noticed that McCall has more touches down the stretch than Walker? Bobby Greenwood got into the game from all ends on run defense, pass rush, and the blocked kick.
Defensive dominance
When Bama went up 10, the game was over. The truth is that Bama's 2nd string defense could have made for better television against Auburn, maybe, but the 1's on 1's was not even a contest. They held Auburn to less than 200 yards for the game and I'd say the 2nd half total yards was probably 50 or 75 yards at most. I thought all 11 starters, and the key reserves had their best game as a whole as well. The only blip on the radar was the last drive of the 1st half where they got flat footed because Burns started running and it caught them off guard a bit. After that, there wasn't much more heard from the Auburn offense other than groans of getting beat at the line and the sound of the ball hitting the soggy turf.
Run Bama Run
When the weather is horrible, bad, etc. you better have a running game worth a damn. Bama had one worth it. Coffee continues to really shine as the feature back on the team. When he was recruited, he was kinda the other guy behind Upchurch and Ford. Now, he's the guy that people will know for a while. Mark Ingram has probably the best footwork of any Bama running back since Alexander was on campus. His capacity to shift and keep body control allows him to gain an extra 5 to 10 yards at will. I think the offseason conditioning will do him wonders. Upchurch came in, made a great move to the outside, but you could tell he's not game ready yet. They need him as the change of pace between the 2 north south guys.
The best pass came at the last pass
To be honest, there wasn't exactly great quarterback play Saturday. Kodi Burns is horrible and needs about 5 years coaching before he'll be ready. Wilson has days where he's on target and days where the football looks like it is flying kites. Saturday was the second option. So, when McElroy put a rope down the right side to Maze, it was near perfect. I just wonder how many will scream Darrah, Darrah, Darrah or (fill in name here) over and over this winter when the clear heir to the QB job is McElroy? I thought the last 2 games Greg's played he's shown a better grasp of the offense and made some nice passes in traffic and under pressure. The big thing that will be different from him and Wilson will be his progression checks. Of course in mop up duty they always look good against a beaten team, but he does check down and finds the open guy where as Wilson looks for 1 maybe 2 and then tucks.
O Line play
Early on it looked iffy at times, but as the game wore on, they OL got on track and had its way with the defense. Credit the staff for finding something in film study that said Auburn would stack left and to run right. I thought this was Davis and Davis's best week and they seemed to know that they were the go to side and stepped it up. Marlon being on his last shot at Auburn seemed to have a sense of urgency on several pull plays and he cleared at least 2 lanes that I remember seeing. Drew did a good job on pass protection and continued to improve his run blocking as well.
Classy exit
I hope the recruits were around and paying attention to the game and not the tit willows when the starters got the curtain call in the 4th. It is probably one of the more memorable moments for me from the Iron Bowl in recent years.
The Bad.
Passing game
While he didn't have any turnovers, he had 2 that should have been. Wilson continues to get by on his play, but with Florida coming, he's got to step up and play like he did against Clemson, Tennessee, and Georgia. He underthrew several and overthrew the rest for a lucky 50% completion ratio. That's becoming an issue too. Go back and watch how well the offense flowed when he's hitting 60+% and how it chugs and clunks when he hits 50%. It is also why he's got 1 TD in the last 5 games and 2 ints.
Special Teams
Ugh. They were doing better, really, they were, but then it just goes back to its natural habitat of sucks. Shank punts, blocked extra point, and a few gaps on returns made for yet another typical game for the specialists. How an extra point gets blocked is beyond me, that's the easiest score in the game. There will be some stadium running for a few. Yes, Saban got all over Fitzgerald, but it isn't just him. PJ hasn't had a great year, he's had a good 2 or 3 games going into Auburn, so you can't expect miracles every week, just this coming week I hope....
The Ugly.
none
Random Thoughts
As I watched the 2 replays on CSS, it hit me that Auburn isn't far off from being back where they were. Their defense is good, it just wears out from playing so long. The only thing they need on defense is depth building. Offensively, man where to start? They don't have a fluid system right now. Period. Burns is starting to spite Tony Franklin who would go with Todd. Todd is a better QB hands down than Burns, he isn't Jason Campbell but he's better than the alternatives. What confuses me about Auburn's philosophy is their best player gets 8 touches tops. I still feel like Tubberville has packed his bags and went on cruise control to get out the door. However, I wouldn't go around yelling how bad Auburn is going to be for years to come, just yet, because with a QB and a gameplan on offense, they'll be in the hunt again.
Eventually, the story on Sly Croom will come out. My gut feeling at first was that they told him to clean the house out and Croom again said no and was ousted then. Second gut feeling says he quit to avoid the resume saying fired at MSU. Now, the debate will rage for years on these sites about Croom and how good or bad he is. Let's be fair and divorce our minds of the Alabama factor in it (at least the off field part) and look at what he inherited and where it ended up. He took a program on probation, with no in roads to recruiting talent, discipline problems galore, etal and while the W-L record doesn't show it, he developed a system of conditioning and discipline that paid dividends last year, but a lack of offensive talent and strategy failed him in the end. ESPN did have a good point, Black coaches are getting shitty jobs and being asked to make something out of them like Croom did in part at State and Turner Gil is doing at Buffalo. UT, Clemson, and others won't seriously look at a Black coach because they want status quo names like the ones being mentioned and hired. Personally, I think Croom would do better at a UCLA or Washington or Clemson than in the SEC right now.
Ding dong Fulmer is gone. I told my dad and brother Saturday that the perfect Saturday needed Kentucky to beat UT. Sadly, I'll have to wait. Fulmer thinks he can coach somewhere else and be successful, but I hate to tell him it won't happen if he doesn't rededicate himself to recruiting. I'd hire Croom over Fulmer because the stench is less. Hell, I'd hire Tubberville over him, Tubberville hasn't gone through the ups and downs nearly as much as Phil has. I would hire Fulmer over Mike Shula or Mike Price or Mike Dubose though, but that isn't saying anything.
Buy/Sell/Hold
The Big 12 is the best conference in the nation.
BUY. Earlier this year I said the SEC was. The SEC has tripped on its ego I'm afraid. The problem is that you have Bama and Florida, but then the distance between them and Georgia, the next best team, is pretty far. Truth is, the SEC is down this year. It is why the SEC champ is the only BCS contender this year, whereas last year UGA had an outside shot, because their schedules and victories aren't that great looking at the end as they were at the time they played. That is why Bama isn't getting as much love as OU and Texas are because Bama's big wins are against a 6 win Clemson, a 7 win LSU, a 5 win UT, and a 9 bad win UGA team. Same goes for Florida. FSU isn't as big as it used to be, they don't have a wow factor on their resume either, but the style points and the beat downs they've given get them there.
Bama did run up the score on Auburn
SELL. For me, there is no such thing as running up the score when you are playing rivals or conference foes. The only time such occurs is against the Sister Mary of the Blind, Deaf, Mutilated, Impotent, and Homosexually challenged games. You line up and play 1st strings and 2nd strings the full 60 minutes when you play conference games. It isn't your job to stop yourself short, that's the opponent's job.
Those who said Paul Johnson couldn't coach in the SEC should line up for crow.
BUY. Is it stylish or going to get a Julio Jones or top end QB? No. Is it going to wear out teams, score points, and win games? Yes. When Tech beat MSU like a drum, we all kinda dismissed it as State. When they unloaded 200 yards rushing in the 3rd quarter alone, damn that's some yards gained, it was worth noting. Johnson is a good coach and is a lot like Bobby Johnson, he can take talent overlooked by the big brothers and make winners out of them. Could he win a NC or SECC? Dunno, he'd be 2nd in the East right now though.
The Big 12 tiebreaker is flawed and should be scrapped.
BUY. How on earth do you say a team that got beaten thoroughly goes ahead of the team that thumped them? I like the SEC's system better that says if 2 teams are within 3 spots of each other it reverts back to H2H. That would have put Texas, the rightful contender, in the B12C again. Instead, we now have the issue of who deserves to play the SEC champ in January? OU or Texas? What happens if Missouri finds a miracle, and it seems to happen a lot in the 12 championship games (Tx beat NU in the 1st, aTm upset KSU, CU beat Tx), who goes then? Texas, the jilted champion? USC, the quiet army from the west? The loser of the SECC? Seriously, what happens if say Bama wins on a last second field goal or TD and wins by 1? Is Florida not worthy in that case, or not as worthy as Tx or USC? That is why I hate the BCS.
LSU is on the way down with Auburn.
HOLD. Here's the history lesson for all to remember: where was Alabama and Florida this time last year? It can amaze me that folks think offseasons only work for their team and not others. I'd hold judgement on LSU and others until we see what they are playing with in August. I do think both might be in trouble if they don't find some depth on defense though.
Stay tuned around Wednesday or Thursday, I'll have a Florida/Bama breakdown.
The Good.
Seniors showout
One that jumped off the page at me during the course of the game was Nikita Stover. Stover is one of those guys who seems to get up just a little bit more for Auburn. The difference in a 6-0 halftime lead and the 10-0 lead was Stover and his massive block on the outside. TV continues to have a hard time telling 8 and 9 apart from the booth and credited Jones, but it was Stover. He also beat his corner at least 3 times that I saw (once was the TD, second was underthrown to him, third Wilson went to Jones). Another big time game came from RJ. Johnson doesn't have to rack up the stat lines, but what I see that is vastly improved is how well he is seeing the play before the snap. The 2 senior tight ends had a nice day blocking as well. The staff is starting to use the McCall rub route as a bread and butter play each week. Have you noticed that McCall has more touches down the stretch than Walker? Bobby Greenwood got into the game from all ends on run defense, pass rush, and the blocked kick.
Defensive dominance
When Bama went up 10, the game was over. The truth is that Bama's 2nd string defense could have made for better television against Auburn, maybe, but the 1's on 1's was not even a contest. They held Auburn to less than 200 yards for the game and I'd say the 2nd half total yards was probably 50 or 75 yards at most. I thought all 11 starters, and the key reserves had their best game as a whole as well. The only blip on the radar was the last drive of the 1st half where they got flat footed because Burns started running and it caught them off guard a bit. After that, there wasn't much more heard from the Auburn offense other than groans of getting beat at the line and the sound of the ball hitting the soggy turf.
Run Bama Run
When the weather is horrible, bad, etc. you better have a running game worth a damn. Bama had one worth it. Coffee continues to really shine as the feature back on the team. When he was recruited, he was kinda the other guy behind Upchurch and Ford. Now, he's the guy that people will know for a while. Mark Ingram has probably the best footwork of any Bama running back since Alexander was on campus. His capacity to shift and keep body control allows him to gain an extra 5 to 10 yards at will. I think the offseason conditioning will do him wonders. Upchurch came in, made a great move to the outside, but you could tell he's not game ready yet. They need him as the change of pace between the 2 north south guys.
The best pass came at the last pass
To be honest, there wasn't exactly great quarterback play Saturday. Kodi Burns is horrible and needs about 5 years coaching before he'll be ready. Wilson has days where he's on target and days where the football looks like it is flying kites. Saturday was the second option. So, when McElroy put a rope down the right side to Maze, it was near perfect. I just wonder how many will scream Darrah, Darrah, Darrah or (fill in name here) over and over this winter when the clear heir to the QB job is McElroy? I thought the last 2 games Greg's played he's shown a better grasp of the offense and made some nice passes in traffic and under pressure. The big thing that will be different from him and Wilson will be his progression checks. Of course in mop up duty they always look good against a beaten team, but he does check down and finds the open guy where as Wilson looks for 1 maybe 2 and then tucks.
O Line play
Early on it looked iffy at times, but as the game wore on, they OL got on track and had its way with the defense. Credit the staff for finding something in film study that said Auburn would stack left and to run right. I thought this was Davis and Davis's best week and they seemed to know that they were the go to side and stepped it up. Marlon being on his last shot at Auburn seemed to have a sense of urgency on several pull plays and he cleared at least 2 lanes that I remember seeing. Drew did a good job on pass protection and continued to improve his run blocking as well.
Classy exit
I hope the recruits were around and paying attention to the game and not the tit willows when the starters got the curtain call in the 4th. It is probably one of the more memorable moments for me from the Iron Bowl in recent years.
The Bad.
Passing game
While he didn't have any turnovers, he had 2 that should have been. Wilson continues to get by on his play, but with Florida coming, he's got to step up and play like he did against Clemson, Tennessee, and Georgia. He underthrew several and overthrew the rest for a lucky 50% completion ratio. That's becoming an issue too. Go back and watch how well the offense flowed when he's hitting 60+% and how it chugs and clunks when he hits 50%. It is also why he's got 1 TD in the last 5 games and 2 ints.
Special Teams
Ugh. They were doing better, really, they were, but then it just goes back to its natural habitat of sucks. Shank punts, blocked extra point, and a few gaps on returns made for yet another typical game for the specialists. How an extra point gets blocked is beyond me, that's the easiest score in the game. There will be some stadium running for a few. Yes, Saban got all over Fitzgerald, but it isn't just him. PJ hasn't had a great year, he's had a good 2 or 3 games going into Auburn, so you can't expect miracles every week, just this coming week I hope....
The Ugly.
none
Random Thoughts
As I watched the 2 replays on CSS, it hit me that Auburn isn't far off from being back where they were. Their defense is good, it just wears out from playing so long. The only thing they need on defense is depth building. Offensively, man where to start? They don't have a fluid system right now. Period. Burns is starting to spite Tony Franklin who would go with Todd. Todd is a better QB hands down than Burns, he isn't Jason Campbell but he's better than the alternatives. What confuses me about Auburn's philosophy is their best player gets 8 touches tops. I still feel like Tubberville has packed his bags and went on cruise control to get out the door. However, I wouldn't go around yelling how bad Auburn is going to be for years to come, just yet, because with a QB and a gameplan on offense, they'll be in the hunt again.
Eventually, the story on Sly Croom will come out. My gut feeling at first was that they told him to clean the house out and Croom again said no and was ousted then. Second gut feeling says he quit to avoid the resume saying fired at MSU. Now, the debate will rage for years on these sites about Croom and how good or bad he is. Let's be fair and divorce our minds of the Alabama factor in it (at least the off field part) and look at what he inherited and where it ended up. He took a program on probation, with no in roads to recruiting talent, discipline problems galore, etal and while the W-L record doesn't show it, he developed a system of conditioning and discipline that paid dividends last year, but a lack of offensive talent and strategy failed him in the end. ESPN did have a good point, Black coaches are getting shitty jobs and being asked to make something out of them like Croom did in part at State and Turner Gil is doing at Buffalo. UT, Clemson, and others won't seriously look at a Black coach because they want status quo names like the ones being mentioned and hired. Personally, I think Croom would do better at a UCLA or Washington or Clemson than in the SEC right now.
Ding dong Fulmer is gone. I told my dad and brother Saturday that the perfect Saturday needed Kentucky to beat UT. Sadly, I'll have to wait. Fulmer thinks he can coach somewhere else and be successful, but I hate to tell him it won't happen if he doesn't rededicate himself to recruiting. I'd hire Croom over Fulmer because the stench is less. Hell, I'd hire Tubberville over him, Tubberville hasn't gone through the ups and downs nearly as much as Phil has. I would hire Fulmer over Mike Shula or Mike Price or Mike Dubose though, but that isn't saying anything.
Buy/Sell/Hold
The Big 12 is the best conference in the nation.
BUY. Earlier this year I said the SEC was. The SEC has tripped on its ego I'm afraid. The problem is that you have Bama and Florida, but then the distance between them and Georgia, the next best team, is pretty far. Truth is, the SEC is down this year. It is why the SEC champ is the only BCS contender this year, whereas last year UGA had an outside shot, because their schedules and victories aren't that great looking at the end as they were at the time they played. That is why Bama isn't getting as much love as OU and Texas are because Bama's big wins are against a 6 win Clemson, a 7 win LSU, a 5 win UT, and a 9 bad win UGA team. Same goes for Florida. FSU isn't as big as it used to be, they don't have a wow factor on their resume either, but the style points and the beat downs they've given get them there.
Bama did run up the score on Auburn
SELL. For me, there is no such thing as running up the score when you are playing rivals or conference foes. The only time such occurs is against the Sister Mary of the Blind, Deaf, Mutilated, Impotent, and Homosexually challenged games. You line up and play 1st strings and 2nd strings the full 60 minutes when you play conference games. It isn't your job to stop yourself short, that's the opponent's job.
Those who said Paul Johnson couldn't coach in the SEC should line up for crow.
BUY. Is it stylish or going to get a Julio Jones or top end QB? No. Is it going to wear out teams, score points, and win games? Yes. When Tech beat MSU like a drum, we all kinda dismissed it as State. When they unloaded 200 yards rushing in the 3rd quarter alone, damn that's some yards gained, it was worth noting. Johnson is a good coach and is a lot like Bobby Johnson, he can take talent overlooked by the big brothers and make winners out of them. Could he win a NC or SECC? Dunno, he'd be 2nd in the East right now though.
The Big 12 tiebreaker is flawed and should be scrapped.
BUY. How on earth do you say a team that got beaten thoroughly goes ahead of the team that thumped them? I like the SEC's system better that says if 2 teams are within 3 spots of each other it reverts back to H2H. That would have put Texas, the rightful contender, in the B12C again. Instead, we now have the issue of who deserves to play the SEC champ in January? OU or Texas? What happens if Missouri finds a miracle, and it seems to happen a lot in the 12 championship games (Tx beat NU in the 1st, aTm upset KSU, CU beat Tx), who goes then? Texas, the jilted champion? USC, the quiet army from the west? The loser of the SECC? Seriously, what happens if say Bama wins on a last second field goal or TD and wins by 1? Is Florida not worthy in that case, or not as worthy as Tx or USC? That is why I hate the BCS.
LSU is on the way down with Auburn.
HOLD. Here's the history lesson for all to remember: where was Alabama and Florida this time last year? It can amaze me that folks think offseasons only work for their team and not others. I'd hold judgement on LSU and others until we see what they are playing with in August. I do think both might be in trouble if they don't find some depth on defense though.
Stay tuned around Wednesday or Thursday, I'll have a Florida/Bama breakdown.
November 29, 2008
Random Thoughts
With visions of turkey dancing on my mind, I take a moment to give thanks that I can log on here and see arguements about Corey Smith and who's bitch is who's....
Best since 1985
Here's a fun discussion, who is the best at what position since 1985? Here's my top 5s for each. Yes it is a slow week....Here is the criteria- W/L, stats, victories over AU, UT, LSU, etal.
Quarterback
1. Jay Barker. There will be this theory that he's not 1 because his freshman and sophomore year statistically were poor. That's a true statement, but with a defense like the 91-92 teams had, he didn't have to do much. Also, when Mal Moore is your coach, do you really expect greatness? The bottom line is he never lost to UT, AU, or LSU. His stat lines were good in the end because Homer taught him the way, but the W/L matters more.
2. Gary Hollingsworth. Won an SEC championship, beat UT, but not Auburn. Was statistically probably one of the best QBs on the team.
3. Brodie Croyle. Statistically, he is the best in class. Win and loss, not quite so much. If he had beaten Auburn once, he probably finishes 2nd to me, but he didn't. He also stayed on his back or on a sling a lot.
4. Tyler Watts. I'm a homer for Watts really. However, he's a big cog in the SEC title in 99 and beating UT and the 10 win season in 02. The thing about him is that he had heart and gave it every play. His career is embodied in the Milons reverse where he hunts 2 UF defenders and clears them out of the lane so that Freddie houses it.
5. Mike Shula. He was more grit than talent if you really get down to it. He was one of the better field generals in Bama's time and lead Bama to 2 last second wins vs. UGA and AU. Statistically, he was tops on the list until Croyle came along.
Honorable Mention- Freddie Kitchens Zow, and JPW, who if he wins Saturday could have a valid case for number 5.
Worst QBs- Brandon Avalos, Brian Burgdorf, Spencer Pennington, Marc Guillon, Lance Tucker
Running Back
1. Bobby Humphrey. No one player has ever been more dominant on the offensive side of the ball in the modern era at Bama than Humphrey. His stats, great games, wins over UT, AU, LSU, were all large and the biggest thing was he was a bruiser as well as a sprinter.
2. Shaun Alexander. Stats wise, he's the top of the chart, but he also was feast and famine. He has an SEC title and the rushing records, but if you watch him and Humphrey side by side, there is no comparison to me that he's not quite as good. Not saying he sucks, but Humphrey was a horse every Saturday.
3. Sherman Williams & Derrick Lassic. The tie goes to these two because they practically worked together every year. Williams was the scatback and Lassic was the north south runner. Both had excellent careers in both wins and stats and big games.
5. Dennis Riddle. May be a shocker for the stat junkies and younger folks that Darby isn't here, but Riddle was just as good and had big plays in big games and wins over Auburn and UT (1994).
HM- Darby, Sh Williams, S Stacy, G Coffee, G Jelks
Worst- Shaun Bohannon
Wide Receivers and TEs
1. David Palmer. No brainer here. The most dynamic player of the 90s led the Tide to big wins and a NC in many ways. Had about as many TDs and kids, but that doesn't detract to his greatness as a player.
2. Al Bell. Those of you younger than say 20, probably don't know Bell, but Al was a catch magnet in the 80s and caught the winning TD against UGA.
3. Freddie Milons. The system made him great, but when the ball was in his hands, good things usually happened. He was probably the 3rd best return man of the period behind Palmer and Arenas.
4. DJ Hall. Stats push him this high, his demeanor and play push him downward.
5. Toderick Malone. He was Barker's go to man in 94 and a real vertical threat his time at Bama.
Top TE- Patrick Hape & Howard Cross.
Worst- Zeke Knight but in his defense, he shouldn't have played WR. Pierre Goode, fast as fleas but hands of rock.
Offensive Line
1. Chris Samuels. He was just as dominant in the huddle as on the field. When you took him out of the equation, they weren't as good or as confident.
2. Andre Smith. Dre is a rare find at any level when you consider he started from day one and was ready.
3. Evan Mathis. He wasn't as big a name as Smiley or Britt, but he was a better ball player.
4. Antoine Caldwell. He's the best OL talent wise since Samuels because he can play all 5 spots if needed.
5. Larry Rose & Neighbors. Back when linemen didn't weigh 300 pounds or have to be 6-6 to play it and were in shape and mean, these two were fine as you could find.
HM- A Ephraim, Smiley, Britt, Patterson
Worst- Von Ewing (biggest waste of scholarship ever when you look at the names you could have gotten), Lannis Baxley, Charlie Dare, Bart Raulston, you know what, the list is extremely long.
Defensive Line
1. John Copeland. I think some kinda kick his name a bit because he had Eric Curry next to him a lot, but I think that defense would have been just as good with just Copeland.
2. Eric Curry. Same for Curry as with Copeland, he was a beast on his own.
3. Jarrett Johnson. Morehead and King got all the recruiting hype, but this guy was the lunch pale, I'll kick your ass guy that made those defenses good.
4. Michael Myers. By far the best pound for pound lineman in a while. He did what Cody is doing plus got to the QB on a regular basis. He'd be higher if he hadn't messed up with the NCAA.
5. Kindal Morehead. He was undersized but was a pure rush end and had a motor that ran 4 quarters.
HM- Antwan Odom, Mark Anderson, Kenny King
Worst- Loescher. What a worthless turd he was off field.
Linebackers
1. Cornelius Bennett. If you are from the ESPN SportsCenter culture that says sacks make you a great player, he wouldn't be on the top of the list, but as far as being the most well rounded player, he was it.
2. Derrick Thomas. The all time leader in a lot of categories, and owner of one of the finest games I've ever seen v. PSU.
3. DeMeco Ryans. A true throwback player to the days of Jordan and Lowe for sure. I just wonder how good he'd been if Kines put him at MLB?
4. Wayne Davis. A name forgotten because of McCants and the top 2 there, but this guy was just as good as Ryans in a lot of ways.
5. Antonio London. Another name forgotten because of those around him, but this guy was the ultimate OLB in the 90s. Always around the ball, always around the QB, and always in position.
HM- Roach, R McClain
Worst- You know, my memory is fuzzy because I can't put my finger on one. Maybe you can refresh me?
Defensive Back
1. George Teague. Langham got press, but Teague was the reason he could gamble. This is the guy that your kids need to watch and learn from.
2. John Mangum. John was a coach's favorite at all levels because he hustled every down and probably touched more footballs in 4 years than 3 defensive backs combined.
3. Antonio Langham. Despite how his career at Bama ended, he was one of the last great cover corners they've had.
4. Tommy Johnson. Another member of the 92 defense mostly forgotten, but this guy was just as good as the rest of the pack. He just didn't have the stat lines they did.
5. Kermit Kendrick. The 80s secondaries are kinda no name for the most part, but Kendrick was a fine DB to compliment the front 7 those teams had.
HM- Peprah, Harper, S Castille
Worst- Kecalf Bailey and the whole host that came through from 1998-2001ish.
Special Teams
1. Van Tiffin. Need I say more?
2. Daniel Pope. When you hit around 44 per kick, you are a game changer.
3. Phillip Doyle. Every bit as good as Tiffin just didn't have the game winners he did.
4. Lane Bearden. Toughest kicker I ever saw.
5. Michael Proctor. A true big legged kicker for the championship teams.
HM- Chris Mohr.
Worst- Hamp, Tank, and about everyone that punted for Curry.
Coaches
Keep in mind, Bear has already passed away by 1985.
1. Gene Stallings. He won, won a lot, didn't do it pretty or clean exactly, but you can't put anyone above the guy who has a championship ring.
2. Nick Saban. No other coach has had the fanfare or the results.
3. Ray Perkins. Perkins was an ass to people, but that doesn't take away from the turn around job he did. I still think he'd won a championship if he hadn't left.
4. Mike Dubose. You'll see his name twice....
5. Bill Curry. Ugh, the coaches have been that bad haven't they?
Worst- Any coach named Mike can be here.
Best since 1985
Here's a fun discussion, who is the best at what position since 1985? Here's my top 5s for each. Yes it is a slow week....Here is the criteria- W/L, stats, victories over AU, UT, LSU, etal.
Quarterback
1. Jay Barker. There will be this theory that he's not 1 because his freshman and sophomore year statistically were poor. That's a true statement, but with a defense like the 91-92 teams had, he didn't have to do much. Also, when Mal Moore is your coach, do you really expect greatness? The bottom line is he never lost to UT, AU, or LSU. His stat lines were good in the end because Homer taught him the way, but the W/L matters more.
2. Gary Hollingsworth. Won an SEC championship, beat UT, but not Auburn. Was statistically probably one of the best QBs on the team.
3. Brodie Croyle. Statistically, he is the best in class. Win and loss, not quite so much. If he had beaten Auburn once, he probably finishes 2nd to me, but he didn't. He also stayed on his back or on a sling a lot.
4. Tyler Watts. I'm a homer for Watts really. However, he's a big cog in the SEC title in 99 and beating UT and the 10 win season in 02. The thing about him is that he had heart and gave it every play. His career is embodied in the Milons reverse where he hunts 2 UF defenders and clears them out of the lane so that Freddie houses it.
5. Mike Shula. He was more grit than talent if you really get down to it. He was one of the better field generals in Bama's time and lead Bama to 2 last second wins vs. UGA and AU. Statistically, he was tops on the list until Croyle came along.
Honorable Mention- Freddie Kitchens Zow, and JPW, who if he wins Saturday could have a valid case for number 5.
Worst QBs- Brandon Avalos, Brian Burgdorf, Spencer Pennington, Marc Guillon, Lance Tucker
Running Back
1. Bobby Humphrey. No one player has ever been more dominant on the offensive side of the ball in the modern era at Bama than Humphrey. His stats, great games, wins over UT, AU, LSU, were all large and the biggest thing was he was a bruiser as well as a sprinter.
2. Shaun Alexander. Stats wise, he's the top of the chart, but he also was feast and famine. He has an SEC title and the rushing records, but if you watch him and Humphrey side by side, there is no comparison to me that he's not quite as good. Not saying he sucks, but Humphrey was a horse every Saturday.
3. Sherman Williams & Derrick Lassic. The tie goes to these two because they practically worked together every year. Williams was the scatback and Lassic was the north south runner. Both had excellent careers in both wins and stats and big games.
5. Dennis Riddle. May be a shocker for the stat junkies and younger folks that Darby isn't here, but Riddle was just as good and had big plays in big games and wins over Auburn and UT (1994).
HM- Darby, Sh Williams, S Stacy, G Coffee, G Jelks
Worst- Shaun Bohannon
Wide Receivers and TEs
1. David Palmer. No brainer here. The most dynamic player of the 90s led the Tide to big wins and a NC in many ways. Had about as many TDs and kids, but that doesn't detract to his greatness as a player.
2. Al Bell. Those of you younger than say 20, probably don't know Bell, but Al was a catch magnet in the 80s and caught the winning TD against UGA.
3. Freddie Milons. The system made him great, but when the ball was in his hands, good things usually happened. He was probably the 3rd best return man of the period behind Palmer and Arenas.
4. DJ Hall. Stats push him this high, his demeanor and play push him downward.
5. Toderick Malone. He was Barker's go to man in 94 and a real vertical threat his time at Bama.
Top TE- Patrick Hape & Howard Cross.
Worst- Zeke Knight but in his defense, he shouldn't have played WR. Pierre Goode, fast as fleas but hands of rock.
Offensive Line
1. Chris Samuels. He was just as dominant in the huddle as on the field. When you took him out of the equation, they weren't as good or as confident.
2. Andre Smith. Dre is a rare find at any level when you consider he started from day one and was ready.
3. Evan Mathis. He wasn't as big a name as Smiley or Britt, but he was a better ball player.
4. Antoine Caldwell. He's the best OL talent wise since Samuels because he can play all 5 spots if needed.
5. Larry Rose & Neighbors. Back when linemen didn't weigh 300 pounds or have to be 6-6 to play it and were in shape and mean, these two were fine as you could find.
HM- A Ephraim, Smiley, Britt, Patterson
Worst- Von Ewing (biggest waste of scholarship ever when you look at the names you could have gotten), Lannis Baxley, Charlie Dare, Bart Raulston, you know what, the list is extremely long.
Defensive Line
1. John Copeland. I think some kinda kick his name a bit because he had Eric Curry next to him a lot, but I think that defense would have been just as good with just Copeland.
2. Eric Curry. Same for Curry as with Copeland, he was a beast on his own.
3. Jarrett Johnson. Morehead and King got all the recruiting hype, but this guy was the lunch pale, I'll kick your ass guy that made those defenses good.
4. Michael Myers. By far the best pound for pound lineman in a while. He did what Cody is doing plus got to the QB on a regular basis. He'd be higher if he hadn't messed up with the NCAA.
5. Kindal Morehead. He was undersized but was a pure rush end and had a motor that ran 4 quarters.
HM- Antwan Odom, Mark Anderson, Kenny King
Worst- Loescher. What a worthless turd he was off field.
Linebackers
1. Cornelius Bennett. If you are from the ESPN SportsCenter culture that says sacks make you a great player, he wouldn't be on the top of the list, but as far as being the most well rounded player, he was it.
2. Derrick Thomas. The all time leader in a lot of categories, and owner of one of the finest games I've ever seen v. PSU.
3. DeMeco Ryans. A true throwback player to the days of Jordan and Lowe for sure. I just wonder how good he'd been if Kines put him at MLB?
4. Wayne Davis. A name forgotten because of McCants and the top 2 there, but this guy was just as good as Ryans in a lot of ways.
5. Antonio London. Another name forgotten because of those around him, but this guy was the ultimate OLB in the 90s. Always around the ball, always around the QB, and always in position.
HM- Roach, R McClain
Worst- You know, my memory is fuzzy because I can't put my finger on one. Maybe you can refresh me?
Defensive Back
1. George Teague. Langham got press, but Teague was the reason he could gamble. This is the guy that your kids need to watch and learn from.
2. John Mangum. John was a coach's favorite at all levels because he hustled every down and probably touched more footballs in 4 years than 3 defensive backs combined.
3. Antonio Langham. Despite how his career at Bama ended, he was one of the last great cover corners they've had.
4. Tommy Johnson. Another member of the 92 defense mostly forgotten, but this guy was just as good as the rest of the pack. He just didn't have the stat lines they did.
5. Kermit Kendrick. The 80s secondaries are kinda no name for the most part, but Kendrick was a fine DB to compliment the front 7 those teams had.
HM- Peprah, Harper, S Castille
Worst- Kecalf Bailey and the whole host that came through from 1998-2001ish.
Special Teams
1. Van Tiffin. Need I say more?
2. Daniel Pope. When you hit around 44 per kick, you are a game changer.
3. Phillip Doyle. Every bit as good as Tiffin just didn't have the game winners he did.
4. Lane Bearden. Toughest kicker I ever saw.
5. Michael Proctor. A true big legged kicker for the championship teams.
HM- Chris Mohr.
Worst- Hamp, Tank, and about everyone that punted for Curry.
Coaches
Keep in mind, Bear has already passed away by 1985.
1. Gene Stallings. He won, won a lot, didn't do it pretty or clean exactly, but you can't put anyone above the guy who has a championship ring.
2. Nick Saban. No other coach has had the fanfare or the results.
3. Ray Perkins. Perkins was an ass to people, but that doesn't take away from the turn around job he did. I still think he'd won a championship if he hadn't left.
4. Mike Dubose. You'll see his name twice....
5. Bill Curry. Ugh, the coaches have been that bad haven't they?
Worst- Any coach named Mike can be here.
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